Tuesday, February 12, 2019
The $12 Trillion Federal Debt Bombshell / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?”
“Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection. I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counter-party signature. Gold, however, has always been far more valuable per ounce than silver. No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the credit worthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.” – Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
The 2 Rules For Successful Trading / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Powell's Interest Rate Hikes Pause Won’t Save Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Jerome Powell threw Wall Street a lifeline recently when he decided to temporarily take a pause with the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. The Fed Head also indicated that the process of credit destruction, known as Quantitative Tightening, may soon be brought to an end. This move towards donning a dovish plume caused the total value of equities to soar back to a level that is now 137% of GDP. For some context, that valuation is over 30 percentage points higher than it was at the start of Great Recession and over 90 percentage points greater than 1985. So, the salient question for investors is: will a slightly dovish FOMC be enough to support the massively overvalued market?
The S&P 500 is now trading at over 16x forward earnings. But the growth rate of that earnings will plunge from over 20% last year to a minus 0.8% in Q1 of this year, according to FACTSET. It might have made sense to pay 19x earnings back in 2018 because it was justified by a commensurate rate of earnings growth. But only a fool would pay 16x or 17x earnings if growth is actually negative?
The only reason why that would make sense is if investors were convinced EPS growth was about to soar back towards the unusually-strong rate of growth enjoyed last year. And for that to be the case several stars have to align perfectly.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Financial Sector Calls Gold ‘Shiny Poo.’ Are They Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Larry Parks of the Foundation of the Advancement of Monetary Education joins me for an eye-opening discussion on our nation’s growing monetary problems and what you can do to help in the vital cause of bringing gold back into the nation’s consciousness. Larry also talks about the massive dangers our nation’s pension funds are facing. Don’t miss a must-hear interview with Larry Parks, one of the foremost experts on sound money, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are pulling back a bit this week on the heels of U.S. dollar strength.
The dollar is benefiting from weakness in European currencies. Brexit uncertainties and downbeat economic forecasts for the European Union are weighing on the euro.
The corresponding dollar rally helped pull gold prices back down near the $1,300 support level in early trading Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold trades at $1,314 an ounce – down a slight 0.3% for the week. Silver checks in at $15.79 to post a weekly decline of 0.9%. Platinum prices are off 3.5% to come in at an even $800. And finally, palladium is showing impressive relative strength, yet again – up 2.6% this week to bring spot prices to $1,396 per ounce.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stocks Bouncing, but Will They Resume the Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following Thursday's decline and a short-term profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index got closer to the 2,700 mark again last week. So is this just a downward correction or some new downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the Thursday's decline. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation two weeks ago and it continued higher. The market got above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88), but then it retraced some of the advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,720-2,725, marked by Thursday's daily gap down of 2,719.32-2,724.15. The resistance level is also at 2,740, marked by the local high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,700-2,710, marked by the previous resistance level. The support level is also at 2,650.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
UK Fixed Rate Mortgage Availability Reaches Record Highs / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, reveals that the number of fixed rate residential mortgage products currently available at most loan-to-value (LTV) tiers are at a record high, with the number of total fixed rate mortgages available at maximum 60%, 75%, 85% and 90% LTV tiers at their highest levels since Moneyfacts Treasury Reports records began in July 2007.
The total number of residential mortgage products available in the market has increased from 5,181 in January 2019 to 5,214 this month. This puts it 644 products above what it was this time last year, when the total stood at 4,570.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stock Market Headwind of Fib Resistance Versus Tailwind of Fed-Speak: Which Will Win Out This Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In last weekend's article, we focused on the relentlessly advancing S&P 500 (SPX) from its December 26 low at 2346.58 into an important Fibonacci price and time resistance zone at 2713.70 on January 31.
The 2713.70 level represented a 62% SPX recovery of the entire September-December decline, while January 31 represented day number 89 since the September 2018 all-time high, and the day that the December-January recovery rally time period equaled 38% of the overarching total timeframe from the September high.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
SPY : More Volatility to Come Due to the Market’s Nature / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Our observations of the ETF, SPY, on the monthly chart have us expecting a spike in Volatility. The inherent bullish nature of the Market calls for advances (motive waves) as trends and pullback (corrective waves) as countertrend. To add to that nature, Elliott Wave Theory always suggests one of the 3 motive waves within an advance will be extended. The strongest advance is most often the 3rd wave. SPY has traced out a very strong move since lows of 2009. Due to that extension it’s hard to find technical support to call for another similar rally.
In the monthly chart of SPY below the early stages of the advance from 2009 show what can be an Elliott wave “nest” as labeled I-II in red, then ((1)) –((2)) in black. Nested labeling is quite common at the start of very powerful impulsive motive waves.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
BP Cycles and Elliott Wave / Companies / Oil Companies
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly I would like to mention the data I have on the BP stock goes back to around 1968 when prices were ranging around in between 1 & 2 dollars. The stock price rose until the November 2007 highs. There it ended a cycle up from the all time lows. From there a sharp pull back lower in price was seen until the June 2010 lows. The point of this is to point out technically why the stock may see some pain before resuming an uptrend.
Secondly from there the bounce into the January 2011 high effectively ended a pullback cycle. That corrected the move up from the all time lows. From that January 2011 high price appears to have been an Elliott Wave flat structure that subdivides as 3-3-5. This remained above the June 2010 lows and ended on February 11, 2016. That is where the analysis starts on the daily chart shown below.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stock Market Top Has Finally Arrived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last time I wrote, I thought a major stock market top was at hand. As it turned out I was early in my prediction. It looks as though Feb 5/6 is the long awaited B wave top. The chart below predicts SPX 2719 early Monday, followed by 2668 Tuesday and the 2510’s by Feb 19.Overall, I expect a repeat of Oct 1/3-Dec 24 from Feb 6- April 26 down into the SPX 2100’s. Late April into early June should see Wave A, Wave B into late August and then a final C Wave top in early October. It would not surprise me to see 3100 by early October 2019. The drop that follows into 2020 should be larger than the current one.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
EURO Crisis Set to Intensify: US Dollar Breakout Higher / Currencies / Euro
By: FXCOT
Major U.S. indexes have crossed or are nearing their 200-day moving averages and the number of stocks setting 52-week highs is on the rise, among other indicators favored by portfolio managers and investment gurus trying to divine the market’s next move. The rally is widely seen as resulting from a more cautious rate-increase outlook from the Federal Reserve and continuing faith in the U.S. economy. But those factors haven’t quelled concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions and a potential slowdown in corporate earnings that would spell trouble for the nearly decade-old bull market.
The SPX after breaking down into the end of 2018 has now regained poise. The rally of the lows has been broad based as shown below.
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
Stock Market Correction Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Countertrend may be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Correction starting?
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
Our Tech Stock Market Prediction – PART II / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you missed PART 1 (SP500 Price Forecast) be sure to read it here.
Here is PART II let’s take a look at the NQ Weekly chart with the ADL predictive price modeling.
We are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019.
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
Gold Stocks Gather Steam / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks’ young upleg is gathering steam, marching steadily to higher lows and higher highs. These bullish technicals are gradually improving sentiment, fueling mounting interest in this contrarian sector. That’s helping the gold stocks regain lost ground relative to gold, the driver of their profits. Fundamentals are growing more favorable as gold itself powers higher. All this portends much-bigger gold-stock gains coming.
Despite a strong rebound upleg in recent months, the gold miners’ stocks are still flying under the radars of most speculators and investors. They aren’t aware the gold stocks are running again, and likely don’t realize how massive gold-stock uplegs can grow. That’s unfortunate, because the biggest gains are won early in young uplegs before they are universally recognized. Buying low early on is the key to multiplying wealth.
The most-popular gold-stock benchmark these days is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It was launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead. This week GDX’s net assets of $10.5b were a colossal 52.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! GDX is the lens through which most traders now view gold-stock fortunes.
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
KitKat's Hard To Win "Make a Break for It" Travel Holiday Goodies / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
KitKat's new promotion went live online on the 1st of Feb, where the top prizes are 10 holidays worth £8,000 each which can be instantly won by finding a golden ticket inside a Kitkat packet. Additionally 100 getaway goodies are supposedly available to be won EVERY DAY just by entering the codes found on the inside of kitkat wrappers. Which 'should' mean this is an easy to win promotion. However, that is not our experience after having entered over a dozen codes, watch our video to find out what is going on and whether you should even bother with this promo.
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Saturday, February 09, 2019
Are Gold Bulls Naively Optimistic? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Are gold bulls naively optimistic? They are certainly optimistic; at least as regards their expectation for higher gold prices. But is that all that is needed to make them happy?
If gold marches higher from here, does that signify that all is well? Would the gurus and wanna-be millionaires be proven correct if gold were priced at $10,000.00 per ounce?
We could ask when. But if those who expect big things for gold are correct, then when might not matter.
Let’s say you want to buy a stock – any stock – that is priced at 13. You have done your due diligence and you are convinced that it can go to 100.
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Saturday, February 09, 2019
Stock Market Prediction – PART I / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we enter the final stage of our market predictions from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data. We hope that many of you remember out predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally? The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks.
As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019. Can you imagine what it would be like to have a tool that could show you what is likely to happen going forward 6 months, 12 months or even 24 months into the future? Well, that is what we have with the ADL predictive price modeling system and we are going to show you how well it has been able to pick the future of the markets for the past 15+ months. Here we go.
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Saturday, February 09, 2019
Gold, Silver Precious Metals Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.
So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.
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Friday, February 08, 2019
The Wealthy Should Prepare to Be Soaked / Politics / Taxes
By: Patrick_Watson
Taxes are a touchy subject. Nobody likes paying them, but (unless you’re an anarchist) we all realize at least some taxation is necessary. We just want it to be fair and reasonable. Exactly what that means is a never-ending debate.
A newly elected member of Congress stoked up the debate last month. She may have opened a box some folks would like to keep closed.
Friday, February 08, 2019
US Business Confidence Is Starting to Crack / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Patrick_Watson
Actions speak louder than words.
That’s why surveys asking people what they think about the economy aren’t always useful. Their actions might not match their words.
Of course, attitudes are important because they guide our decisions, even though we don’t act on them consistently.
Not everyone’s decisions have equal impact, though. Business owners and CEOs have more influence because they make bigger decisions: whether to create new jobs, raise wages, buy new equipment, and so on.