Friday, October 05, 2018
Return of Stock Market Volatility: More Short term Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you would recall, I said in late-September that the stock market’s volatility would probably spike in October. Volatility was extremely compressed, which set the stage for an expansion in vol.
Yesterday, the stock market went down and volatility spiked a little.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Ripple (XRP) Makes Huge Waves: Did You See Them Coming? / Currencies / BlockChain
By: EWI
7 Days of Free Forecasts
11 Top FX Markets + Bitcoin, Ethereum & Litecoin
Forex FreeWeek | October 3-10, 2018
You've just seen how Elliott Wave analysis can help you anticipate even the fastest-moving turns in trend. So: if you want analysis for where EURUSD, USDJPY and Bitcoin and other cryptos are headed next...
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Chinese Credit Collapse Is Imminent / Interest-Rates / China Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Many good things are happening in China.Businesses are prospering. Living standards rise. The country’s interior is still quite poor but life is improving.
This progress is welcome news. The problem is how China is financing it. The answer is, “with a lot of debt.”
You often hear about China’s government and corporate debt, but less about households.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a long while since the last Amigos update because frankly if the characters, images and shticks I invent to portray market status begin to wear on me sometimes I have to believe they may do the same to you. Consider that the 3 Amigos, SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields and the Yield Curve are slow movers that we usually view from monthly chart perspectives and well, sometimes you need to take a break and just let them do their thing over time.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
USD Lifted by Data and Fed Chair Powell’s Remarks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The US dollar outperformed all its major peers yesterday following solid economic data and hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Italian assets were supported by the reports that Italy’s government is planning to scale back its deficit targets for 2020 and 2021, while in the UK, PM May’s speech did not result in any major market reaction.
Dollar and Tr. Yields Surge on Upbeat US Data and Powell’s Comments
The dollar managed to outperform all the other G10 currencies on Wednesday. It gained the most against NZD, AUD and NOK, while the currencies against which it gained the least were GBP and CAD.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Stock Market’s Breadth is Weak: Stocks Will Crash! Just Kidding / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
We’ve done 2 kinds of stock market studies recently.
- The U.S. stock market’s own price action.
- The U.S. stock market’s breadth.
Market studies related to the stock market’s own price action have mostly been bullish.
Market studies related to the stock market’s breadth have been mixed. Some are bullish, while others are very bearish.
So what gives? Why are some breadth studies so bearish? (e.g. Hindenburg Omen)
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Friday, October 05, 2018
How To Choose The Right Kind Of Used Car Platform / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: Submissions
Choosing the right kind of used car platform is not always an easy task. As with most things, there’s a lot of different factors to consider and many different options which need to be thought about before a decision can be reached.
However, the problem that a lot of people run up against is that they don’t know what needs to be considered when it comes to choosing a used car platform. Because of this, they don’t wind up going to the right place and getting the best deals. To try and help you to understand exactly what you need to consider when it comes to used car platforms, we’re going to look into a few of the different options here and now.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Why Expanding Places at Sheffield's Best Secondary Schools is a Recipe for Disaster / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
It's that time of the year again when Sheffield's parents and students have been busy visiting Sheffield's secondary school open days as they attempt to determine the best school to apply for in the countdown to the 14th October online deadline and 31st October paper deadline. However, the school league tables can prove misleading as many of Sheffield's 38 or so secondary schools for whatever reason tend to exhibit volatility in performance from year to year. Therefore a currently high ranking school may rank lower in subsequent years i.e. by the time today's Year 7's progress to Year 11 exams. Therefore a better methodology in the ranking of schools is to evaluate performance in terms of trend.
Thursday, October 04, 2018
Gold Miners Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern? Really? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold rallied, silver rallied, and mining stocks rallied. That’s how one can summarize yesterday’s session. The volume was huge, so it appears that a major upswing has just begun. But is this really the case? As always, just because things look encouraging and the emotions are high, it doesn’t mean that anything changed. One needs to step back from the day-to-day price and volume changes and look at the factors that are in place right now without any biases. No hopes, no “feelings toward the market”, and no worries about missing the boat. Just facts and logic. Let’s start with gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Thursday, October 04, 2018
Boeing (BA) Stock Elliott Wave Analysis / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: WavePatternTraders
Readers may be aware than Boeing (BA) is the biggest stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), so it makes sense to watch the biggest weighted stock to find an edge to the next likely direction of the DJIA.The recent gyrations on Boeing appear to suggest thrust from a triangle, for Elliott wave users, that’s a key pattern as the look from the 2016 lows, appears to suggest an impulse wave is developing. So the triangle is a 4th wave of an impulse wave, the current spike is that of a 5th wave. However there are a couple of ways to label the current advance, so unless a strong reversal back below $372.64, then I would at least respect the potential for further upside as it may still be in wave 3 of the larger wave [5].
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Gold and Silver Bottoming Pattern May Be in Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical expert Jack Chan updates the gold and silver charts, including what he believes to be a bottoming pattern.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Eurozone Debt Crisis - Italy and the Euro Unplugged / Interest-Rates / Italy
By: Axel_Merk
Why is it that Italy causes such a stir in financial markets when proposing a budget? Is it politics or is the stability of the financial system at stake? In our assessment, the best way to avert a crisis is to allow market forces to play out. Let me explain.
We all “know” Italy is in trouble. Well, before we jump to conclusions, let’s look at a few charts. Above is the Italian unemployment rate; it’s come off a high level, but still elevated. When policy makers call for structural reform, it is a codeword for increasing flexibility in the labor market, i.e. making firing easier. If firing workers is difficult, companies won’t hire workers. It’s also in this context that providing a so-called basic income is criticized by some as providing a disincentive to join the labor force (aside from cementing higher deficits for years to come). Basic income means you get paid, whether you work or not. In practice, the devil is in the details, as European workers have long enjoyed unemployment benefits; streamlining such benefits might actually save the government money. That said, Germany’s low unemployment, to a significant extent, may be due to the fact that welfare benefits were curtailed in 2002 (with a social democrat as chancellor), providing an incentive for workers to join the workforce.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Divergence Between Stock Market Indexes: What’s next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Small cap stocks have significantly underperformed large cap stocks recently.
Yesterday, I demonstrated that this divergence tells you that the bull market’s top is probably 1 year away.
However, this divergence typically means that the bull market’s rally still has some room left (e.g. approximately 6-12 months). As we all know, the stock market can go up a lot during the final 6-12 months of its bull market.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
How A Global Trade War Would Derail Economic Recovery Worldwide / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the international community is becoming more aware of the threat the U.S.-Sino trade war poses to global growth, what was originally a bilateral tariff conflict is spreading across regions.During a press conference on September 26, President Donald Trump disclosed why he believes China, despite the U.S. tariff wars, respects him – because of his “very, very large brain.”
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
How Much Longer Can the Stock Market Hold Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
More and more “bells are ringing” for this market rally.
The microcap index, called the Russell 2000, typically leads the overall market in risk on/ risk off moves. With that in mind, what does the below chart suggest?
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Quantitative Tightening Killing The Stock Market Is 'Fake News' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, I read an article which stated that quantitative tightening is the “death knell” to the stock market. Can this be true?
So, allow me to show you why this is just another market fallacy which has been propagated by market analysts and the general media, and then regurgitated from one investor to another until it has risen to the point of “fact.” However, at the end of the day, this too is simply “fake news.”
While I am sure it would seem “logical” to most people that if the Fed takes money out of the system that the stock market would certainly drop. This premise is based upon the common belief that the cause of the market rally was the Fed’s quantitative easing process. So, if you remove the cause of the rally, then obviously the rally will reverse.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
US Bond Yields Positioned for Upside Acceleration / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Ten-year Yield has climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!
From a technical perspective, today's surge above May-Oct 2018 resistance at 3.11% is a reaction to very strong recent data showing strong ADP Payrolls for September (230,000 vs. 185,000 expected), and impressive ISM Non-manufacturing data across the Headline data (61.6 vs. 58 expected), as well as the sub-surveys in Business Activity, Prices, Orders and Employment for September.
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Wednesday, October 03, 2018
Ratcheting Up the Gold Friendly COT Tension / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the most recent gold COT report and movements in the market. Once again the COT report from last Tuesday has revealed continued pressure on the already taut firing pins of the gold and silver markets with more shorts added by the Large Spec algobots and more longs/fewer shorts reported by the Commercials largely represented by the bullion banks. If it is the gold cartel that has capped rallies in the $1,350-1,375 range since August 2016, it is that same gold cartel that are actually positioned for a rally today and where the market is baffling everyone is the failure of the Crimex Criminals to launch the rally. The answer lies in the ascent of the machines in dictating direction in any and all markets. Whereas the algos have been focused on all things non-metal in recent years, they have taken to the gold and silver markets lately and are displaying phenomenal power and control in thwarting the intentions of the bullion bank cartel.
Wednesday, October 03, 2018
U.S.- Mexico - Canada Trade Agreement / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Now that the most disastrous aspects of NAFTA have been removed from the new U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement; traders, business managers and the public will get to see the true sentiments of the globalists, who will feel the pain of losing their special commercial protections. Restricting genuine free trade has always been the main objective of the corporatists and internationalists. The basic question: has President Trump bucked the financial monopolists and transformed commerce with a dose of business reciprocity or is USMCA just a back door to establish a North American Union?