Monday, February 05, 2018
Global Synchronized US Bond Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close.
However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
“Strong Dollar,” “Weak Dollar,” What About a Gold-Backed Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The recent hullabaloo among President Trump’s top monetary officials about the Administration’s “dollar policy” is just the start of what will likely be the first of many contradictory pronoucements and reversals which will take place in the coming months/years as the world’s reserve currency continues to be compromised. So far, the Greenback has had its worst start since 1987, the year of a major stock market reset.
The brief firestorm was set off by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said in response to the dollar’s recent slide, “Obviously, a weaker dollar is good for us, it’s good because it has to do with trade and opportunities.”* Mnuchin backtracked a bit as international financial leaders criticized the apparent shift in policy while Administration officials sought to clarify the Secretary’s remarks. President Trump weighted in on the matter saying, “Ultimately, I want to see a strong dollar” and added that Mnuchin’s comments were “taken out of context.”
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Best Commodity Trading Opportunities to See Now / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Special 5-day event (free): "Best Commodity Opportunities to See Now"
Dear reader,
Volatility is picking up steam -- and it's more than just Bitcoin and U.S. stocks that deserve your attention.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Friday's Stocks Sell-Off Sets The Tone For Weeks To Come / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 2.0-2.5% on Friday, breaking below their three-day-long consolidation as investors reacted to quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases, among others. The S&P 500 index accelerated its short-term downtrend following breakout below the level of 2,800. It currently trades 3.9% below its January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The broad stock market retraced more than 50% of its month-long rally off the December 29th local low at 2,673.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker, as it lost 2.5% on Friday, and the technology Nasdaq Composite fell 2.0%.
Monday, February 05, 2018
Will the Great Unwind Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the August 2017 edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the hawkish turn among major central banks. We pointed out that “Europe has recently been among the most surprising positive economic regions in the world”, which should induce the ECB to taper its quantitative easing program in the fall, supporting both the EUR/USD exchange rate and the price of gold. This is exactly what happened. The dollar lost more than 3 percent in 2018 against the euro, while gold jumped above $1,350 (as of January 25). As we noted in the previous edition of the Market Overview, “the beginning of the year is usually a good period for the gold prices.”
Monday, February 05, 2018
Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin's $20,000 bubble mania peak of Mid December that valued the crypto currency at $320 billion has long since been left in the dust as Bitcoin has crashed well below $10,000, wiping out $170 billion of the value of participants holdings. All whilst the crypto coin gamblers obsessed by all things block chain have largely remained in a state of denial, focused on bitcoin soaring to over $50,000 despite its real inverse trend trajectory as tends to happen at the end of market manias.
And so it has been the case since I published my opening Bitcoin forecast of the year over a month ago when the crypto was trading at USD 14,000, warning that the Bitcoin price was likely to continue crashing towards $5,000, a forecast that was met with denial from many in the bitcoin community.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Stock Market How Low? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Is this an intermediate-term top? Perhaps not yet!
Monday, February 05, 2018
Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Submissions
B.R. HollisterI’ve spent over thirty years analyzing markets and have noticed an interesting correlation between the Wall St. Markets (stocks, interest rates) Gold (and the mining shares), the Dollar Index and Oil. In the charts below, I describe what I call “shadows” of the past and how they repeat certain patterns.
Right now I know that traders are concerned with rising interest rates, but at this point in the game I don’t think they matter too much, this is just a much needed 4-6% pull back in the stock market as we fall into the 20 week low. The problem with excessive over speculation should come home to roost especially as we come in to the latter half of the year. My read is that we may see a 20% bear market much like May-Oct 2011 or July-Oct 1998. Meanwhile, buying the dips should prove lucrative.
Monday, February 05, 2018
Did The Stock Market Top Last Week? I think Not / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’re certain that many of you are asking yourself this question after seeing the markets rotate to the downside so hard recently. If you had been reading our past analysis for the early portion of 2018, you would likely know the answer to this question. If not, this research article will assist in your understanding of the market’s rotation and what to expect over the next few weeks/months.
We called a market advance in early 2018 nearly three weeks before the end of 2017. We also called the current move, lower, at that same time. Recently, we’ve made calls regarding the US Dollar, metals markets, and natural gas that have played out exceptionally well for our members. Now, we’ll show you what to expect in the markets for the next few weeks.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
The Meaning of Economic Philosophy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Dr. Gero Jenner writes:In ‘The Open Society and its Enemies’, Karl Popper strongly defended the position that major interventions in the economy, especially when ideologically motivated, are usually disastrous and should therefore be avoided. Popper wrote his famous work towards the end of the thirties. On the one hand, he saw the devastating effects of textbook-based economies, where the working masses were tied into an economic strait-jacket by a Politburo, on the other hand, Popper was well aware of the dangers of that kind of capitalism, which tended to place the interests of a few monopolists above those of the general population. Against such aberrations, Popper propagated what he called ’social engineering‘, namely, a model of small steps, where every previous economic intervention is painstakingly scrutinized in view of its effects before any further action is embarked upon. Popper seemed to regard the economy in the same way as a highly complex machinery which a layman cannot tackle without causing the greatest damage.
Sunday, February 04, 2018
Where Have All The Stock Market Investors Gone? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: WMA
Given that most trading in capital markets today is momentum-based buying and selling, where much of the trading is a reaction to news and directed to ETFs that are being manipulated by computer algorithms, it’s a legitimate question to ask where have all the investors gone?
Is most everybody today just a buyer or a seller of prices? If so, the marketplace has gotten off track. Are people fed up with market intervention, are they too indifferent to market risk until they panic or are they simply not able or not caring to understand the assets they are buying?
Sunday, February 04, 2018
Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Jeff_Berwick
On Friday, the Dow Jones fell 665.75 points. Or, if you round it, 666 points. Also known to many as the “mark of the beast”. It was also the sixth worst point drop in US stock market history.
This also happened on the 33rd day of the year. 33 is the most important number in Freemasonry.
This is noteworthy because it is the first serious drop in the US stock markets on a weekly basis in two years.
But are the numbers 666 and 33 just a coincidence?
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Sunday, February 04, 2018
Removing Fuel from a Stock Market Rally on Fire / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Doug_Wakefield
Friday, January 26, 2018; the Dow sets a record, adding almost 2,000 points in the first 4 weeks of the year.
Forget rising rates. Ignore what is taking place in Washington. Central Banks? Who are they? Wealth from the “perfect bull” only comes in two speeds, slow and fast.
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Sunday, February 04, 2018
10yr Yield Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.
Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.
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Saturday, February 03, 2018
Here Come Bigger Paychecks! / Politics / Government Spending
By: Rodney_Johnson
So far in 2018, New England froze over and the government shut down. And it’s only January!But just like with Christmas, there are some things that never happen fast enough. One of them is any change that gives workers bigger paychecks. With February just around the corner, that change is coming fast!
The IRS has published the new withholding tables reflecting the recent tax reform. By the pay period ending February 15, employers should have built these rules into their payroll calculations.
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Saturday, February 03, 2018
What’s Behind the Rising Gold and Treasury Bond Yields / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Three trends I’ve been forecasting have been happening in the last year:
- The strong Trump rally.
- Rising 10-year Treasury bond yields.
- And rising gold prices.
They’re all related to late stage inflation and the expected tax cuts, which have materialized.
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Saturday, February 03, 2018
Stocks Plunge. Volatility Spikes. Fear Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Urgent Message Two Must See NASDAQ Charts
This short video shows you everything you need to know about the position of the stock market today. It's a must-see message for anyone investing in stocks today.
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Saturday, February 03, 2018
Have Stock Investors Gone Insane? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This has the appearance of a Wave (iii) of a Leading Diagonal Wave [i]. Thus far it has not succeeded in making its Head & Shoulders target, but it may not be complete. This may be where the wheels fall off, so I am hesitant to put a label on the structure yet. It doesn’t look very good, does it?
ZeroHedge advises, “With positioning at extremes, and leverage at extremes, and valuations at extremes, Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha raises the red flag as the correlation across asset-classes soars to record highs signaling extreme contagion risk.
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Saturday, February 03, 2018
Stock Market Plunge Protection Team Spotted Atop Mount Everest! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Many market observers would agree that the current stock market is either in a bubble or at least richly valued by historical standards. Not that it matters. The Dow’s ascent looks like Mount Everest complete with a lack of oxygen at the top. All that has mattered when it comes to stocks for thirty years now is the Federal Reserve and their ‘Plunge Protection Team (PPT)’ activities.
When stocks needed a boost, they were there to buy market indices back up when no one else would dare. Since the election of President Donald Trump, market indices have been moving straight up. The PPT has not been needed. There have been no sell-offs. That is, until the very end of January, 2018. Even then, the Dow dipped just a couple of percentage points.
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Saturday, February 03, 2018
Letting a Land Rover Discovery Sport Fuel Tank Run to 0% Empty / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: N_Walayat
Given the poor fuel economy of Land Rover Discovery Sport's i.e. owners will be lucky to achieve 30MPG let alone anywhere near Land Rover's sales pitch of 53.3MPG. Add to that the small 50 litre usable fuel tank then Discovery Sport drivers will often see themselves running low on fuel, but what happens when you let your fuel gauge run to zero, 0% Empty, and just how reliable is the fuel gauge for I am sure Disco Sport drivers are soon aware that the fuel gauge tends to vary in its reading. We'll we put a Disco Sport to the test in this video to find out just how reliable the fuel gauge is and what happens at EMPTY.