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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Bulls Are Impatient: Will They See a Recession in 2020? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recession, recession - will we see one in 2020? And will it bring about a rally in gold then?. True or false? In today’s article, we’ll test the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative and we’ll then show you what it all means for the gold market.

One year ago, we wrote that “we do not expect recession next year or even in 2020”. We were right: the U.S. economy did not slide into a recession in 2019. But will it happen this year? After all, the current economic expansion lasts 127 months. We know that expansions do not die of old age, but we also know that the next economic crisis will one day arrive, sooner or later. Twelve months ago, we were skeptical about a downturn in 2020, as “the lack of clear typical warning signs that preceded the past recessions put the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative into question”.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Miners Message for the Precious Metals Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The Fed kept rates unchanged and while it was not immediately preceded by major price moves in the PMs, the no-change decision was followed by bullish price action in the following hours. This action extends into today’s pre-market trading.

Most interestingly, however, the USD Index repeated its daily reversal confirming that lower values are to be expected. This confirms our yesterday’s analysis.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 01, 2020

The Dow Points To Higher Silver Prices For Years To Come / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Dow is at, or very close to a 90-year resistance line:

Could a top be in, or is it extremely close? What I do know, from my own research, is that major Dow peaks are extremely important when it comes to Silver rallies.

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Commodities

Friday, January 31, 2020

Silver Prepares For Next Leg Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Following up on some of our recent metals research, we wanted to alert our friends and followers to the incredible opportunity that still exists in Silver.  We’ve highlighted two of our more recent articles for reference and review, below.  Silver continues to be one of the most incredible opportunities for 2020 and Silver Miners (SIL) could explode to the upside as the price of Silver rallies to close the gap between the Gold to Silver ratio.

Our researchers believe Silver is currently undervalued, compared to Gold, by at least 240%.  Historically, the Gold to Silver ratio averages a 10+ year rotational range of between 63 to 67.  This means that through both peaks and troughs, ranging from the high 80s to mid-90s to the low 30s to mid-40s, on average the middle price range level for this ratio is near 65.  Currently, this Gold to Silver ratio is 88.4.

Gold is currently trading at $1590 – just below the recent peak near $1613.  We believe that Gold will continue to rally higher, breaking the $1613 level, and continue higher targeting the $1750 level over the next few months.  Eventually, within 2020, we believe Gold will continue to rally higher breaking the $2100 price level.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Gold Long-Term CoT Perspective / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Because it’s so important to see this correctly and not pretend we (well, I) know more than we (I) actually do I find it important to look at pictorial representations of history and think about them when I get some quiet time (ha ha ha, like not on Twitter, not reading financial/gold websites and most certainly not watching TeeVee finance and news).

So I am thinking about the Commitments of Traders alignment with respect to the gold price once again. That would be the same CoT that has doggedly hung a poor risk vs. reward sign out over the sector from a sentiment standpoint since the summer.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 30, 2020

There’s No Fever Like Gold Fever… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

In late December 2019, a bill from the German finance ministry – which had passed the lower legislative house – proposed lowering the "anonymous purchase limit" for precious metals from €10,000 to €2,000 (about $2,200), a reduction of 80%.

At the current price, one could buy less than one and one-half troy ounces of gold without activating customer ID paperwork, and for businesses – a criminal background check!

This is an additional decline from the €15,000 mandated just two years ago. Set to become law in early 2020, the effect was immediate, as long lines outside a coin shop in Cologne show.

Some of the world's largest banks – including several in Germany – have long made a habit of laundering literally billions of dollars, euros, and assorted financial instruments from questionable customers.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Silver Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We can all dream about Silver outpacing Gold. However the truth about Silver is that it tends to under perform during precious metals bull markets, and only really coming alive in the bull markets final stages when it tends to spike. So Silver for 2019 did what Silver tends to do which is to under perform against Gold. Though in reality maybe investors tend to set their hopes too high, as a gain of 15% for the year is still pretty good going against Gold up 19%.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Why Palladium Is on a Tear / Commodities / Palladium

By: MoneyMetals

Physical palladium and rhodium markets are buzzing. Reported prices for both metals leapt higher in recent days.

The story behind palladium’s move is that a physical shortage has developed in London. Traders sold metal they didn’t physically possess. Now they are being asked to deliver the bars and they are scrambling to secure the metal needed, bidding prices higher.

It looks like bullion bankers selling paper metal are finally getting called for selling way more than they can actually deliver!

People have complained about this practice in precious metals markets for decades.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

The Platinum Breakout & Bull Market of 2020 / Commodities / Platinum

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Platinum has setup into a longer-term FLAG formation and has recently broken the APEX of this FLAG.  The long term potential for Platinum, in conjunction with the advance in Rhodium, Palladium, Gold, and Silver, is a new Bullish Price Trend.

Our researchers believe Platinum must move above $1200 for this new Bullish trend to anchor a “Breakout Base” formation.  The current investment environment suggests a new metals rally is setting up.  Fear is starting to take hold of the markets and industrial and manufacturing demands are still driving prices and supply demands higher and higher.  As investors pile into the metals as a form of safety, we expect Platinum to rally above $1200 within the next 4 to 6+ months and begin a much broader rally to levels above $1600 overtime.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2020

Palladium Surges above $2,400. Is It Sustainable? / Commodities / Palladium

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

A new day, a new record in palladium! Is there any stopping it from reaching another high? What’s next in store for the white metal?

If you thought gold had a good year, you were wrong. OK, maybe not wrong, but palladium enjoyed larger gains. Just look at the chart below, which shows the price of palladium. As you can see on the chart below, this metal gained almost 50 percent in 2019, rising from $1,270 to $1,900!

And if you thought gold started 2020 well, you were also wrong. OK, maybe not wrong, but palladium was the real star (although not as great a star as rhodium which has gone really supersonic recently). Let’s look at the chart below once again – the white metal skyrocketed from $1,900 to almost $2,500 in January! 

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2020

This Will Signal A Massive Gold Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks are often cited as recession proof stocks. Although this has not always been true, they do tend to rise when the economy is in a recessions and/or when the general stock market is in decline or showing relatively little gains.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 26, 2020

The "Twin Threats" Facing Big Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The global oil and gas industry is facing the "twin threats" of the loss of profitability and the loss of social acceptability as the climate crisis continues to worsen. The industry is not adequately responding to either of those threats, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

"Oil and gas companies have been proficient at delivering the fuels that form the bedrock of today's energy system; the question that they now face is whether they can help deliver climate solutions," the IEA said.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Experts See Opportunity in Ratios of Gold to Silver and Platinum / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments and Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable discuss investment strategies centered on precious metals ratios.

Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.

Always a pleasure to have you on the program to discuss the value proposition before us in precious metals. Today we will identify three exciting value propositions for your precious metals portfolio that are currently selling at a deep, deep discount.

Mr. Schectman, you have a proven pedigree of success in the precious metals space. I want to discuss a methodology that has made you and the clients of Miles Franklin very handsome returns over the years, and that is your use of ratios. Sir, please explain why it is paramount for precious metals investors to have a thorough understanding on precious metals ratios.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Gold/Silver Ratio, SPX, Yield Curve and a Story to Tell / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

I most often use linear scale charts for stocks, markets and indicators for their more absolute views. But in the case below we conjure up a long-term log scale chart showing the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) and the S&P 500 (SPX), as it works better in providing a percentage-based relationship between an indicator of market liquidity and inflation when declining and lack of liquidity, deflation or… it has to be said, Goldilocks, when rising.

Now, when viewing the most recent Goldilocks phase, where SPX has gone in positive correlation with the GSR we will have to suspend disbelief that this is anything normal or natural. It was created by will of man as first the Bernanke Fed conjured a balls out inflation out of 2008’s deflationary destruction and then as a crowning achievement, concocted Operation Twist in order to manipulate the bond market into flashing this signal… ‘Nope, no inflation here!’

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Germany Starts War on Gold  / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Germans, like Indians and Chinese, love their gold - although their reasons for buying and keeping bullion are somewhat different. 

In China and India, gold jewelry is a status symbol - a sign of wealth and success. In Germany, owning gold bars and coins, maybe a 24-karat necklace or two, is a means of preserving wealth, especially in times of war or economic crisis, something never far from Germans’ minds, considering their history.  

Indeed the “war guilt” Germans experience over the atrocities of Nazi Germany is accompanied by fears that their government could again lose control of fiat money, as the Weimar Republic did in the 1920s, leading to devastating hyper-inflation. 

In India “a marriage is not a marriage without gold.” Indians find it auspicious to be-gift gold jewelry during the Diwali festival, which begins in October, and wedding season. Gold-shopping for the bride is thought to bring good fortune and invoke the blessings of a Hindu goddess. At nearly 20 million weddings a year, Indians’ annual demand for the precious metal exceeds 514 tonnes. Easy to see why the country’s private gold holdings are the largest in the world, a mind-boggling 24,000 tonnes. (almost as much as the world’s top 10 central bank holdings combined)

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Gold Mining Stocks Valuations / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have spent the past half-year mired in a high consolidation.  They haven’t been able to break out, but aren’t breaking down either.  This technical purgatory is working to slowly bleed off overboughtness and rebalance sentiment.  This necessary process to eradicate greed from the last upleg peak is never exciting.  But today’s low gold-miner valuations reveal great upside potential in their next upleg.

The world’s leading and dominant gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund.  It commanded $13.2b in net assets in the middle of this week, 2.7x larger than its next-biggest competitor GDXJ.  The major gold miners’ stocks included in GDX soared this past summer, blasting higher after gold’s decisive breakout to its bull market’s first new highs in several years.

GDX’s strong 29.0% surge over the next 2.5 months into early September capped a larger 76.2% upleg over 11.8 months.  Naturally last summer’s sharp rally generated much excitement and greed in this small contrarian sector.  So the gold stocks needed to correct or consolidate, either selling off deeply enough or drifting sideways long enough to restore sentiment balance.  Excessive greed is inherently unsustainable.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Three Upside and One Downside Risk for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Our base scenario for 2020 is that it might be a worse year for gold than 2019 was. However, there are three major upside (and one downside) risks for the gold market, which could materialize in 2020. Today’s article will introduce you to these potential catalysts that could send gold prices higher (or significantly lower) in 2020.

We stated earlier that unless something bad happens, 2020 may be worse for the yellow metal than 2019, as gold fundamentals seem to have deteriorated since the last year. Of course, bad things are happening all the time, but do not result in any possible negative developments. Rather, we have in mind three downside risks to our macroeconomic outlook, or three upside risks for gold. What are they?

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2020

A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Apparently, there is no limit. This seems especially true right now with all of the “obvious” signs and indicators staring you in the face. It is almost blasphemous to speak cautiously. Better to let your imagination run wild and join in the revelry.

I can’t do that. I don’t choose to be dumped into the same cauldron of boiling fantasy with other analysts and advisors, who tout and promote based on the latest headlines. There has to be more to it. I think there is.

Some of this has to do with marketing. “Let’s make hay while the sun shines!” I get that. But I don’t like being in a large crowd when emotions grow unchecked and fundamentals are ignored.

If you are interested in attending a pep rally for much higher gold prices, move on. You won’t find it here.

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2020

Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Two cities are besieged. One by officials, activists and business leaders, while the second by bloodthirsty politicians. Will anyone escape? No one knows, but the gold coin has always helped bribe the guards to look the other way…

Just take a look at how it held value recently:

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