Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Bear Stearns Rescue Reversed Gold Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Christopher_Laird
Gold rallied a great deal, way beyond anything in recent years, as the 07 credit crisis began and spread. Since the explosion of the credit crisis around August 07, gold exploded from the $670s to a $1020s peak mid March. The Fed/Morgan Bear Stearns bailout occurred at that time. Right after, the financials rallied (XLF Spider) and gold has been selling off since. Other commodities also are following. The credit crisis caused a gold and commodity bubble. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Gold Tumbles After Fed Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES continued to slide early Thursday, falling below Wednesday's 13-week low to trade at $862.40 per ounce as bond yields ticked higher following yesterday's "baby-step" rate cut from the Federal Reserve in Washington .With continental Europe closed for May Day, the London stock market was little changed in thin trade, while the British Pound held onto its overnight gains vs. the Dollar above $1.9850.
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Thursday, May 01, 2008
Leveraged Gold ETF's Signal the End for Gold Stock Investments? / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Bob_Kirtley
During the last major rally in gold prices, gold stocks made some great gains and investors such as yours truly were happy to take good profits on the gold mining companies we had bought over the summer doldrums . However we should have seen a much better performance. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
If Investors Were Smart They'd be bidding up Gold and Silver Instead of Oil! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
If traders and investors were smart, they would bid up the price of gold instead of oil. Likewise, if governments and central banks were smart, they would take the lid off the gold price and actively encourage investment in that most precious of all commodities.
Why?
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Gold Plunges Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD BULLION continued to slide early Wednesday, avoiding the collapse forecast by many analysts after dropping through $875 per ounce but reaching a series of fresh 3-month lows as the US Dollar rallied against the Euro, crude oil and the value of world stock markets."The previous low [of April 1st] has been taken out and the technicals now quickly point to $850," says today's Gold Market note from Mitsui, the precious metals dealer.
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Gold Breaks Below Technical Support Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Meeting / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $18.20 to $874.70 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 45 cents to $16.57 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $867.75 £440.77 and €557.72 (from $886.00, £447.50 and €569.23).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Agri-Foods Investment Boom Continues / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Hard to miss a news story on global situation in rice. More has been written on rice in past month than probably occurs in a year. At the same time, the price of oil was bid to an all time high. All that action fed the interest in gra ins, especially those t hat might be converted to biofuel. This headline attention on Agri-Food also fed investor interest. As this week's chart shows, Agri-Food stocks have been having a very good time.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Will the US Fed Create More Inflation in Commodities? / Commodities / Inflation
By: Clif_Droke
Inflation has been investors' main focus lately. A commonly held assumption is that the Fed's aggressive lowering of interest rates will only result in more inflation and an even bigger bulge in commodities prices. Is this a necessary outcome of increased liquidity and lower rates?
Let's examine this belief. Historically, we find that Inflation basically occurs in three situations:
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The Mysterious Case of the Commodity Conundrum, Securitization of Commodities, and Systemic Concerns (Part 3) / Commodities / Derivatives
By: Mack_Frankfurter
Part 1 , Part 2
"The theories which I have expressed there, and which appear to you to be so chimerical, are really extremely practical—so practical that I depend upon them for my bread and cheese." — Sherlock Holmes, A Study in Scarlet (1888)
The mysterious case of the commodity conundrum is sure to elicit passionate debate on either side of the equation—is the commodity boom due to speculation or fundamentals? By the time you read this, a battle in this dispute will have taken place on April 22, 2008 with the CFTC roundtable on agricultural markets.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Natural Gas ETF Points to Down Trend / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Yesterday's up-gap spike to new highs above 55.00 in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (AMEX: UNG) followed by a close near the low of the session, which then was followed by a gap down opening this morning and a plunge to the 52.00 area, not only satisfied a multi-month upside swing target off of the Sept-Dec '07 base formation but it also left behind (for now) an exhaustion Island Reversal at the very top of the advance. Usually, such an exhaustion signal identifies a significant price peak and a near-term reversal in trend direction. Such is the case in the UNG, which now points lower towards 50.00 next, on the way to 48.00 thereafter.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Invest in Silver or Silver Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Bob_Kirtley
In May 2006 silver spiked at fifteen dollars and the HUI Index also spiked at 400, today we have silver trading at seventeen dollars, having been as high as twenty dollars, and the HUI Index stands at 406!
This raises the question of whether it is better to invest in the metal itself or to invest in silver stocks?
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Gold Follows Oil and Euro Lower Ahead of FOMC Meeting / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD fell back in Asian and early London trade on Tuesday, undoing Monday's 1.1% gain as crude oil fell, stock markets were mixed, and government bonds ticked higher after the worst two weeks for US Treasuries since 1982."Everybody is waiting for the Fed," notes Ronald Leung of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong . "I think Gold has to stay above these levels before it can charge higher again.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Can You Profit From The Rice Shortage? / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: George_Kleinman
How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?--Alan Greenspan, 1996
Rice was in the limelight this past week. Costco and Sam's Club limited the amount of rice customers could buy because of the irrational exuberance of its rice customers. The rice chart below (this is a fairly thin market that's not too actively traded in the futures) looks like an accelerated rocket ride to the moon. Historically, these kinds of moves always seem to end poorly.
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold and Commodities Ongoing Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Aden_Forecast
The year is still young, yet it's seen many commodities soar. From the precious metals, to the base metals, like copper and tin, to raw materials, to energy, like oil and natural gas, to the soft commodities, like corn and wheat... the commodity bull market has been flexing its muscles.
In the first quarter alone, gold was up 10%, silver gained even more, near 17%, and copper surged 25%. This is in stark contrast to the stock market as the Dow Industrials lost 6% during this time.
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Not Enough Silver to Satisfy Portfolio Diversification? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
In my article “Silver is too bulky,” we examined a hypothetical look at the average baby boomer placing ten percent of their net worth into the precious metals, split 50/50 gold and silver. At the time, silver was trading over $15 per troy ounce. Since publishing that article silver has traded over $21 and is now trading between $17 and $18.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold and China's Coming Flood of Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
I have just returned from a 10-day trip to Southern China and Hong Kong. While I was there, I explored the Chinese attitude toward gold. If their demand for gold equaled that of other nation's average individual holdings, then we would see their demand well into four figures. I wanted to know if the Chinese would really move towards gold in their portfolios.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold Strengthens Ahead of US Fed Interest Rate Cut Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD rose 0.9% during Asian and early London trade Monday, recovering Friday's drop as world equity and commodity indexes ticked some 0.5% higher.Rice and wheat futures rose, while Japanese bond yields continued to sell off after Friday's CPI report showed the highest rate of inflation in ten years.
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold's March Through $1000 Halted by Feds Creative Policy Towards Creating Liquidity / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“The rally in gold since December was almost entirely speculative, flight to quality and dollar hedging that will unwind very quickly when conditions change. If a reversal in the dollar has indeed begun, oil will move lower, but not as much as gold. Gold has now defined a clear range and taking any large positions while inside that range is no better than gambling. In the 900-955 area both counts are still valid, which suggests playing the break of the range in whichever direction.” ~ Precious Points: G.O.L.D. (Gold, Oil, Dollar, Libor ), April 20, 2008Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Crude OIl Hits $119- Ways to Profit From Peak Oil / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Martin_Hutchinson
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said a few months ago that if the United States invades Iran , we could expect to see oil at $200 a barrel. With oil already approaching the $120 mark, we may get there even without invading Iran.
[Perhaps President Chavez could be tempted out of his chaos-causing rule in Caracas with the offer of a rich and perk-filled oil-analyst's job at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ( GS )].
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Sunday, April 27, 2008
Gold Threatens Break of $870 to Trigger Long-term Bear Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
That was another week we could have done without. Gold and gold stocks seem to be sitting on top of support levels. This next week just might be a very interesting week as far as telling us if the downside continues or if we may see a rise.
GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term P&F chart, shown in these commentaries a few weeks back, has now come back to the $885 level, where it rallied from earlier. However, a further drop to $870 will break below its up trend line and two previous lows to give us a long term BEAR signal. Should that happen the previous projections would become operative with an initial move to $840 and then on to $660. This new move, should it occur, would provide a further projection to $600, so we have potential projections all over the place, and all of them would be P&F valid IF gold should drop to the $870 level (based upon the June 2008 futures contract). Sounds ominous but let's see what the normal charts and indicators are telling us.