Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, January 13, 2018
Gold Miners’ Status Updated / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
After a positive year-end with the expected precious metals rally we noted on Dec. 31, in NFTRH 480:
“With HUI dwelling just under the 195 resistance parameter, a pullback can come at any time. But there are enough other factors still in line to expect a resumed rally after any grind at resistance comes into play.”
and then on Jan. 7, in NFTRH 481:
Read full article... Read full article...“What HUI actually did was immediately push up into the 195-200 resistance zone, become overbought and hang around there all week in consolidation. Here is the noisy daily chart once again. Let’s focus on how the most recent RSI oversold condition in December did indeed spring a tradable rally. As chartists saw the October/November shelf of support break down and then the July lows breached the call was ‘BEARISH!’ far and wide. Shorts were taken on the say so of people who know how to look laterally and see one thing lower than the other thing.
Saturday, January 13, 2018
Gold And Silver – Review of Annual, Qrtly, Monthly, Weekly Charts. Reality v Sentiment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Usually we have a commentary of some kind as a back story to what is going on in the PMs. Our commentaries have become fewer and farther between because of the absurdity of government control, which in turn is controlled by the ruling elite. Not a day goes by that the president elect, Donald Trump, is not severely criticized by mainstream media, both televised and in print. We have never seen this kind of maltreatment toward a president, ever. It is the Deep State exposing its ugly tentacles to keep Trump from gaining any traction in popularity, and it speaks to the bitter disappoint that Deep State favorite, and one upon whom they could depend, Hillary Clinton lost.
Sadly, Trump has been overwhelmed by the shadow powers and turned into yet another presidential puppet that will disappoint perhaps even more than turncoat Obama. Many of Trump’s promises of reform have been cast aside in favor of bowing to the dictates of the ruling elites. the swamp creature have survived the draining attempt and are back stronger than ever.
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Saturday, January 13, 2018
Gold GLD ETF Update.. Bear Market Reversal Watch / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
Just a quick update on GLD which is showing the price action approaching the top rail of its triangle trading range which should be around the 127.50 area. Many times during the formation of a 5 point triangle reversal pattern the price action will fail to make it all the way down to the 5th reversal point which suggests the bulls are eager to get positioned. A touch of the top rail will complete the 5th reversal point technically putting the triangle into the reversal category to the upside.
What we have to do now is to see how the price action interact with the top rail. Most likely we should see a reaction backdown initially that could be very shallow if it’s time for the triangle to complete. If the bulls are really fired up we could see a gap above the top rail which would be very bullish.
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Friday, January 12, 2018
Optimum Entry Point for Gold and Silver Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses why he believes a massive new sector bull market is about to begin in gold and silver.
When you are following the markets closely day after day it can be easy to lose sight of the big picture. So with the "everything bubble" getting closer to bursting, leading to universal mess and mayhem, there could not be a better time to look at the long-term picture for gold and silver, in order to see whether they are going to salute and go down with the ship, as they did in 2008, or constitute a lifeboat and a profitable means of escape for more fortunate investors.
I am therefore pleased to be able to report that it will almost certainly be the latter, for reasons that we will now elucidate on the respective long-term charts for gold, then silver.
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Friday, January 12, 2018
These 3 Facts Show Gold Is Set to Surge in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Jeff Clark : Crypto and stock prices grabbed most of the investment headlines in 2017. But by the end of 2018, a different asset class is bound to spark investor’s attention.
There are multiple reasons for that, starting with the fact that no trend or bull market lasts forever. But it’s about more than just the prolonged run in equities and runaway prices in cryptos.
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Friday, January 12, 2018
Macroeconomic Outlook for 2018 and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Luckily or not, 2017 is behind us. It was a positive year for the gold market, as the yellow market gained more than 12 percent. However, investors are forward-looking, so let’s focus on what the coming months will bring. The next year will be shaped mostly by the following broad economic trends:
1. Global activity is improving.
2. Labor markets are strengthening further.
3. Subdued inflation is finally rising (but moderately).
4. Central banks are slowly reducing their monetary policy stimulus.
5. Interest rates are rising.
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Will Chinese Dragon Boost or Devour Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
China may slow down its U.S. debt buying. Will gold rally or plunge, then?
Dragons Love Hoarding Gold and Not Only
Dragons love gold. In Greek mythology, dragons were set by the gods to guard golden treasures. It makes perfect sense, since it would be rather difficult to find better guards. Everybody who watched The Hobbit series knows that this is true – the powerful Smaug hoarded a lot and was really obsessed with his shiny treasure.
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Thursday, January 11, 2018
Gold Prices Rise To $1,326/oz as China U.S. Treasury Buying Report Creates Volatility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
– Gold prices rise to $1,326/oz on concerns China may slow U.S. Treasury buying
– Equities fell sharply on the report as did Treasurys and the U.S. dollar
– Chinese officials think U.S. debt is becoming less attractive compared to other assets
– Trade tensions could provide a reason to slow down or halt U.S. debt purchases
– U.S. dollar vulnerable as China remains biggest buyer of U.S. sovereign debt
– Currency wars to return as China rejects U.S. hegemony in Asia
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Why Oil Should Be Supported in Weekly Chart / Commodities / Crude Oil
Hello fellow traders, in this blog post, we will discuss oil in a more bigger picture.
In the chart below, you can see crude oil futures on the weekly chart.
From the 02/08/2016 low, we can clearly see that the market has a potential 5 swing incomplete bullish sequence. It seems like that it is still in the fifth swing. The weekly target for us is between 68.53-86.82. Please note a 5 swing sequence is different than 5 waves impulse. Overall, we can conclude that we need more upside in oil and we suggest members to buy the instrument in 3-7-11 swings to the upside.
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Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
– Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies
– A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP
– As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £
– Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Here are the Key Levels in Gold & Gold Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
The rally in Gold and gold mining stocks easily surpassed our expectations and targets. The strength has been far more than we anticipated. The gold stocks blew past their 200-day moving averages while Gold blew past $1300/oz. Now it is time to take a technical look and focus on the key support and resistance targets.
The strength of the rebound pushed the miners well beyond their 200-day moving averages and to their June and October highs. GDX is consolidating just below $24 while GDXJ is consolidating just below $35. If this consolidation turns into a correction then GDX and GDXJ could find support at their 200-day moving averages which are at $22.71 and $33.37 respectively. As you can see, should GDX and GDXJ be able to exceed recent peaks then they could rally towards important resistance levels. Those are $25.50 for GDX and $38 for GDXJ.
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Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
Traders for Light crude oil continue to see higher price levels over the near term. Front-month futures prices reflect their bullish outlook (chart 1).
The expectation is for $63 to $65 per barrel by late Q1.
The one caveat is that U.S. production appears set to explode later this year.
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Tuesday, January 09, 2018
Gold Prices Choppy after Payrolls / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
The U.S. economy added only 148,000 jobs in December. Gold prices reacted in a choppy way, confusing some analysts. Why?
December Payrolls Disappoint
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased only 148,000 in December, the slowest pace in three months. The employment gains were generally widespread, but the biggest employers were construction (+30,000), leisure and hospitality (+29,000), education and health services (+28,000), and manufacturing (+25,000). The latter rise is a particularly bright spot, given the not-so-distant problems of the sector. On the other hand, retail trade cut 20,000 jobs, which confirms that some traditional brick-and-mortar stores struggle.
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Tuesday, January 09, 2018
More Important Than Gold’s Bottoming Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Time is more important than price. That’s what we – investors – are often made to believe regarding the future price movement. And rightfully so. The price could reach a bottom several dollars ahead of the predicted price target or it could break through it, leaving investors wondering, if there was a breakdown and thus they should expect to see another big downswing shortly. With time, things are clearer. The time for a given move is up and the price reverses. When is gold likely to finally bottom?
Between August and October 2018. That’s the most up-to-date estimate based on the data that we have right now. Here’s why (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Tuesday, January 09, 2018
Getting Bullish on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss gold's recent moves and potential signs of a bull market.
Gold is up nine of the last 12 Januaries with an average gain of over 4%, and the trend has continued in 2018 with gold reaching an intraday high of $1,327 so far this year. From December 19 of last year, gold rose 10 trading days in a row. Is this another rally destined to disappoint investors or the resumption of the gold bull market?
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Monday, January 08, 2018
Gold – What Are We Waiting For? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
The other shoe to drop? The next big move? Up or down?
Gold’s reign as the “next big thing” ended seven years ago. Too many people don’t want to admit that, but its true. Those who are ‘bullish’ on gold cannot let go.
Their behavior is typical of those who have missed the boat. And they don’t want to admit it, or believe it. And their problem is compounded by the fact that they originally viewed gold as a quality investment. Now they continue to point out all of the fundamental reasons gold should go much higher. We are told it is undervalued, unappreciated, unloved. And, of course, the price is manipulated, too.
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Sunday, January 07, 2018
Commodities the Return To Inflation? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
The headline in this Thursday’s Financial Times reads: “Commodities prices hit highest point since 2014”.
The FT article begins: “The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks price of 22 raw materials, has hit its highest level since 2014 when the oil market price crash started.”
A small problem might be that the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index does not include Energy or Precious Metals, which are in other Bloomberg indexes. In fact, in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is a grouping of Raw Industrials and Food Stuffs. The Raw Industrials includes burlap, copper scrap, cotton, hides, lead scrap, print cloth, rosin, rubber, steel scrap, tallow, tin, wool tops, and zinc. Foodstuffs include butter, cocoa beans, corn, cottonseed oil, hogs, lard, steers, sugar, and wheat.
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Sunday, January 07, 2018
Natural Gas Got Bomb Cyclone in the New Year / Commodities / Natural Gas
Natural gas is the dog that got its day in the New Year trading at $175/MMBtu spot in New York. Less than a month ago, Gas Exporting Countries Forum expected lower natural gas prices “over the next two decades” mostly due to a surge in supplies from unconventional sources.
With the sever winter storm hitting much of North America, temperatures have been tumbling since the start of the New Year. Meteorologists dubbed this arctic winter storm "bomb cyclone" because of the extreme drops in pressure over a short period of time. This unusual freezing cold weather has also had a major impact on U.S. commodity markets, natural gas, in particular.
Saturday, January 06, 2018
Gold Stocks Upside Huge 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
The gold miners’ stocks have huge upside potential in 2018, likely the best among stock-market sectors. They really lagged gold last year, so a major mean-reversion catch-up rally is coming. The gold miners are universally ignored and deeply undervalued relative to the metal which drives their profits. And gold itself is likely to power dramatically higher this year as euphoric record-high stock markets inevitably start to falter.
Gold has always been the leading contrarian investment, tending to move counter to stock markets. So not surprisingly investment demand stalled last year as the extreme taxphoria-fueled stock surge blasted relentlessly higher. When stock markets apparently do nothing but rally indefinitely, investors feel no need to prudently diversify their portfolios with the anti-stock trade gold. So they ignored the yellow metal in 2017.
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Saturday, January 06, 2018
Four Commodity Charts For the “There is No Inflation” Crowd / Commodities / Commodities Trading
I keep reading articles claiming that inflation is nowhere to be found.
If that is true, explain the following four charts.
Copper has broken out of a 10-year downtrend.
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