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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, February 06, 2020

Downside Risk in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we noted that the risks in precious metals were primarily technical.

Sentiment and technicals urge caution over the short-term.

The net speculative position in Gold has remained high for months while the 21-day daily sentiment index (DSI) hit 81%. Since the sector peak five months ago, Silver and the gold stocks have corrected in price while Gold has made a new high.

That non-confirmation has persisted and even recently as odds for rate cuts have increased. Last Friday, the market was showing an 89% chance of at least one cut and 61% chance of at least two cuts. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Inverse Energy ETF AT Breakout Level – Could Rally Further / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Following up on an exciting article we shared with friends and followers on January 17, 2020, it appears ERY has reached the first stage for profit taking with a fairly strong potential we may see this rally continue even higher.  Please review the following repost of our original research and analysis of ERY back in early January.

January 17, 2020: ENERGY CONTINUES BASING SETUP – BREAKOUT EXPECTED NEAR JANUARY 24TH

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Copper-gold Deposits to Help Gold Miners Overcome Depletion Dilemma / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Every fiscal quarter the World Gold Council puts out a wonderful little report on the gold market, that is made into an article by just about every mining news outlet. For reasons unknowable to mere mortals like us, the report focuses on gold demand. The reader has to go deep into the report to find the other half of the story, gold supply, and in particular, mined gold supply.

Doing so in the WGC’s latest instalment, the full-year 2019 gold market report, reveals some startling conclusions about “peak gold”. 

The concept of peak gold should be familiar to most readers, and gold investors. Like peak oil, it refers to the point when gold production is no longer growing, as it has been, by 1.8% a year, for over 100 years. It reaches a peak, then declines.

While gold production has been increasing every year, it’s been growing in smaller and smaller amounts. That is, while gold output in 2018 was higher than 2017, it was only 1% higher - 3,347 vs 3,318 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Production in 2017 was 1.3% more than 2016.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 02, 2020

Gold Stocks HUI Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts - A “Translation Service” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

The following is a TA post. It tries not to focus on fundamentals or the negative potential sentiment setup that could develop when Coronavirus relief finally spreads across the land. It’s the short and long-term TA of it, as it stands now.

I found this comment response to the Goldseek version of my article on the long-term gold Commitments of Traders situation to be amusing and also on point, since I know a lot of what I write can be confusing to the untrained eye amid a sea of readily digestible analysis out there. Good one, sir…

“Do you think if I pay an extra $15 a month to the $35 subscription fee you can provide a translation service in [English] to what you’re trying to talk about ?”

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Commodities

Saturday, February 01, 2020

The Coronavirus Doesn’t Matter Either… We Have the Federal Reserve! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

As the coronavirus continues to spread, global financial markets are showing the symptoms of investor unease.

Chinese and emerging markets stocks have taken a big hit over the past several days, as have commodities. Crude oil prices have dropped 13% over the past two weeks while copper has seen a 12% drop on concerns about the impact of the China virus on global demand.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Bulls Are Impatient: Will They See a Recession in 2020? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recession, recession - will we see one in 2020? And will it bring about a rally in gold then?. True or false? In today’s article, we’ll test the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative and we’ll then show you what it all means for the gold market.

One year ago, we wrote that “we do not expect recession next year or even in 2020”. We were right: the U.S. economy did not slide into a recession in 2019. But will it happen this year? After all, the current economic expansion lasts 127 months. We know that expansions do not die of old age, but we also know that the next economic crisis will one day arrive, sooner or later. Twelve months ago, we were skeptical about a downturn in 2020, as “the lack of clear typical warning signs that preceded the past recessions put the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative into question”.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Miners Message for the Precious Metals Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The Fed kept rates unchanged and while it was not immediately preceded by major price moves in the PMs, the no-change decision was followed by bullish price action in the following hours. This action extends into today’s pre-market trading.

Most interestingly, however, the USD Index repeated its daily reversal confirming that lower values are to be expected. This confirms our yesterday’s analysis.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 01, 2020

The Dow Points To Higher Silver Prices For Years To Come / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Dow is at, or very close to a 90-year resistance line:

Could a top be in, or is it extremely close? What I do know, from my own research, is that major Dow peaks are extremely important when it comes to Silver rallies.

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Commodities

Friday, January 31, 2020

Silver Prepares For Next Leg Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Following up on some of our recent metals research, we wanted to alert our friends and followers to the incredible opportunity that still exists in Silver.  We’ve highlighted two of our more recent articles for reference and review, below.  Silver continues to be one of the most incredible opportunities for 2020 and Silver Miners (SIL) could explode to the upside as the price of Silver rallies to close the gap between the Gold to Silver ratio.

Our researchers believe Silver is currently undervalued, compared to Gold, by at least 240%.  Historically, the Gold to Silver ratio averages a 10+ year rotational range of between 63 to 67.  This means that through both peaks and troughs, ranging from the high 80s to mid-90s to the low 30s to mid-40s, on average the middle price range level for this ratio is near 65.  Currently, this Gold to Silver ratio is 88.4.

Gold is currently trading at $1590 – just below the recent peak near $1613.  We believe that Gold will continue to rally higher, breaking the $1613 level, and continue higher targeting the $1750 level over the next few months.  Eventually, within 2020, we believe Gold will continue to rally higher breaking the $2100 price level.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Gold Long-Term CoT Perspective / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Because it’s so important to see this correctly and not pretend we (well, I) know more than we (I) actually do I find it important to look at pictorial representations of history and think about them when I get some quiet time (ha ha ha, like not on Twitter, not reading financial/gold websites and most certainly not watching TeeVee finance and news).

So I am thinking about the Commitments of Traders alignment with respect to the gold price once again. That would be the same CoT that has doggedly hung a poor risk vs. reward sign out over the sector from a sentiment standpoint since the summer.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 30, 2020

There’s No Fever Like Gold Fever… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

In late December 2019, a bill from the German finance ministry – which had passed the lower legislative house – proposed lowering the "anonymous purchase limit" for precious metals from €10,000 to €2,000 (about $2,200), a reduction of 80%.

At the current price, one could buy less than one and one-half troy ounces of gold without activating customer ID paperwork, and for businesses – a criminal background check!

This is an additional decline from the €15,000 mandated just two years ago. Set to become law in early 2020, the effect was immediate, as long lines outside a coin shop in Cologne show.

Some of the world's largest banks – including several in Germany – have long made a habit of laundering literally billions of dollars, euros, and assorted financial instruments from questionable customers.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Silver Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We can all dream about Silver outpacing Gold. However the truth about Silver is that it tends to under perform during precious metals bull markets, and only really coming alive in the bull markets final stages when it tends to spike. So Silver for 2019 did what Silver tends to do which is to under perform against Gold. Though in reality maybe investors tend to set their hopes too high, as a gain of 15% for the year is still pretty good going against Gold up 19%.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Why Palladium Is on a Tear / Commodities / Palladium

By: MoneyMetals

Physical palladium and rhodium markets are buzzing. Reported prices for both metals leapt higher in recent days.

The story behind palladium’s move is that a physical shortage has developed in London. Traders sold metal they didn’t physically possess. Now they are being asked to deliver the bars and they are scrambling to secure the metal needed, bidding prices higher.

It looks like bullion bankers selling paper metal are finally getting called for selling way more than they can actually deliver!

People have complained about this practice in precious metals markets for decades.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

The Platinum Breakout & Bull Market of 2020 / Commodities / Platinum

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Platinum has setup into a longer-term FLAG formation and has recently broken the APEX of this FLAG.  The long term potential for Platinum, in conjunction with the advance in Rhodium, Palladium, Gold, and Silver, is a new Bullish Price Trend.

Our researchers believe Platinum must move above $1200 for this new Bullish trend to anchor a “Breakout Base” formation.  The current investment environment suggests a new metals rally is setting up.  Fear is starting to take hold of the markets and industrial and manufacturing demands are still driving prices and supply demands higher and higher.  As investors pile into the metals as a form of safety, we expect Platinum to rally above $1200 within the next 4 to 6+ months and begin a much broader rally to levels above $1600 overtime.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2020

Palladium Surges above $2,400. Is It Sustainable? / Commodities / Palladium

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

A new day, a new record in palladium! Is there any stopping it from reaching another high? What’s next in store for the white metal?

If you thought gold had a good year, you were wrong. OK, maybe not wrong, but palladium enjoyed larger gains. Just look at the chart below, which shows the price of palladium. As you can see on the chart below, this metal gained almost 50 percent in 2019, rising from $1,270 to $1,900!

And if you thought gold started 2020 well, you were also wrong. OK, maybe not wrong, but palladium was the real star (although not as great a star as rhodium which has gone really supersonic recently). Let’s look at the chart below once again – the white metal skyrocketed from $1,900 to almost $2,500 in January! 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2020

This Will Signal A Massive Gold Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks are often cited as recession proof stocks. Although this has not always been true, they do tend to rise when the economy is in a recessions and/or when the general stock market is in decline or showing relatively little gains.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, January 26, 2020

The "Twin Threats" Facing Big Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The global oil and gas industry is facing the "twin threats" of the loss of profitability and the loss of social acceptability as the climate crisis continues to worsen. The industry is not adequately responding to either of those threats, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

"Oil and gas companies have been proficient at delivering the fuels that form the bedrock of today's energy system; the question that they now face is whether they can help deliver climate solutions," the IEA said.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Experts See Opportunity in Ratios of Gold to Silver and Platinum / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments and Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable discuss investment strategies centered on precious metals ratios.

Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.

Always a pleasure to have you on the program to discuss the value proposition before us in precious metals. Today we will identify three exciting value propositions for your precious metals portfolio that are currently selling at a deep, deep discount.

Mr. Schectman, you have a proven pedigree of success in the precious metals space. I want to discuss a methodology that has made you and the clients of Miles Franklin very handsome returns over the years, and that is your use of ratios. Sir, please explain why it is paramount for precious metals investors to have a thorough understanding on precious metals ratios.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Gold/Silver Ratio, SPX, Yield Curve and a Story to Tell / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

I most often use linear scale charts for stocks, markets and indicators for their more absolute views. But in the case below we conjure up a long-term log scale chart showing the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) and the S&P 500 (SPX), as it works better in providing a percentage-based relationship between an indicator of market liquidity and inflation when declining and lack of liquidity, deflation or… it has to be said, Goldilocks, when rising.

Now, when viewing the most recent Goldilocks phase, where SPX has gone in positive correlation with the GSR we will have to suspend disbelief that this is anything normal or natural. It was created by will of man as first the Bernanke Fed conjured a balls out inflation out of 2008’s deflationary destruction and then as a crowning achievement, concocted Operation Twist in order to manipulate the bond market into flashing this signal… ‘Nope, no inflation here!’

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