Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Gold Dramatic Correction Back into Buying Territory / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Gold is back in buying territory after its dramatic correction back to key intermediate trendline support.
In the last update we were looking for gold to break out above the $1,000 level. It did and briefly got to about $1030 before it turned tail and dropped precipitously. Interestingly, the short-lived run at $1030 occurred last Sunday at the time of the Bear Stearns emergency, and the time when the crisis was at its most acute was the point at which gold topped out, which is what one would expect.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Gold and Silver Analysis- What Goes Up Must Come Down,,,, / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“The current trend now is clearly down as confirmed by violation of the 5-week sma on Tuesday and it should be expected that rallies will be used as an opportunity to further liquidate long positions. And because gold in has moved so far so fast a substantial decline will likely ensue. But it would take a move below $750, that's over 25% from Monday's high, before there's serious damage to the bull market. It may not look pretty between now an then, but until conditions change, the 50-week moving average serves as support for the bull market.” ~ Precious Points: Gold Gets Sold , March 19, 2008Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Gold Downward Spiral Targeting Primary Up-trendline at $840 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
What does one say after a week like this past one? Memories of an old movie come to mind and the saying “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times”, then off they went to the guillotine. Those with their heads still intact might eventually benefit down the road.
GOLD : LONG TERM
For those with a long term focus the long term P&F chart suggests that there is still no worry about a bear market. The price of gold would have to drop to the $885 level to break below both a (secondary) up trend line and two previous lows, or more importantly must move to the $840 level to break below the primary up trend line. Should such a break come, that would project down to the $720 level for now, but first things first. Let's check where we are with the normal charts and indicators.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
The US Fed Engineered Commodities Price Plunge / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
The world-wide fiat system functions like a roach motel: Investors check in - but they NEVER check out! By it's latest hit on commodities, the Fed as the system-leader gave investors a shot across the bow. The message: "If you try to leave, we will hurt you!"
("Leaving the fiat system" here means to store your wealth in more tangible forms that are not as susceptible to engineered currency collapses.)
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Saturday, March 22, 2008
Gold Trading has Changed Due to Impact of Gold ETF Holdings / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Handbury
The introduction of Gold Exchange Traded Funds (GETFs) has changed the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of the gold market. Now goldbugs, rather than crudely storing gold in their basements, can buy shares in companies that actually store the physical gold bars in secure warehouses. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 21, 2008
HUI Gold Stocks Bull Market Hit by Seasonal Selling / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
After an incredibly volatile week for the precious metals, PM-stock traders are very worried. Despite Bernanke's Fed forcing real interest rates even more massively negative , gold plunged. The PM-stock traders, never paragons of courage anyway, panicked. The HUI gold-stock index plummeted with gold.
We were stopped out of a lot of trades in the carnage, but the great thing about stop losses is they automatically get your capital out early in a sharp plunge. So we are now blessed with lots of dry powder to scoop up irrationally beaten-down bargains. Great opportunities have bloomed! I will discuss our trading strategy in depth, including specific new trades, early next week in Zeal Speculator .
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Friday, March 21, 2008
Beat the Credit Crisis Road Map to Profits / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Is it wild and wooly out there or what? The onslaught of nightmarish news about the U.S. economy has hit financial markets around the world like a Category 5 hurricane.
Wild, short-term swings in the markets can often be confusing. But through it all, the major trends remain firmly intact:
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Friday, March 21, 2008
Easter Message- Filthy Lucre and Maundy Money / Commodities / Money Supply
By: Adrian_Ash
"...If the Queen never carries any cash, what does she keep in that stout little handbag...?"
SO THE MONEY-CHANGERS didn't get thrown out of the temple this Easter Week. Instead, they got open-ended support from the money-lender of last resort, and snapped up a near-broken bank for $2 a share.
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Thursday, March 20, 2008
Gold Sinks Like a Stone to $906 On Heavy Investment Fund Liquidation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD sank as European markets opened for business on Thursday, giving back a 2% rally in Asia to plummet towards a new one-month low, just shy of $906 per ounce.Bouncing more than 12% beneath Monday's all-time record high of $1,034, the Gold Market then rallied to record an AM Fix in London of $913.50 per ounce – its lowest level since Feb. 18th.
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Thursday, March 20, 2008
Interesting Development with Gold and Gold Shares / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Brian_Bloom
Have a look at the green Relative Strength Charts below. Either the shares need to (soon) start rising relative to gold or the gold price needs to start falling relative to the shares. If the gap in the gold price chart below (at around $850 per ounce) is covered, that will be a very healthy development. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 20, 2008
DELEVERAGING- Gold and Commodities Teetering on the Brink of a Bear Market? / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold and other commodities plunged below key short-term support levels following Tuesdays US Interest rate cut to 2.25%. The consensus seems to see this as a healthy correction or is this a signal for a potential end of the commodities bull market?
My view for some months has been that the west will move from a period of stagflation (the present) to a period of deflation towards the end of this year. Therefore at some point during this year the commodities bull markets would be expected to recognise this change in fundamentals and peak well before deflation makes itself evident. The major trend expectations are illustrated in the below graph from an earlier article on the current stagflation and future deflation prospects.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Prepared Speech: IQPC Base Metals Investment Summit 2008 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Mack_Frankfurter
Recently, there was an article in the Financial Times titled: “Plummeting dollar a big headache for pegged currencies.” Between hedge fund margin calls, the Fed's $236 billion plan to boost liquidity, Bear Stearns take-under by JP Morgan, and not least Elliot Spitzer's self-destruction, why focus on this particular back page headline? The reason this article caught our eye is that it focused attention on what we believe is the near-term “end game” within a longer-term era of commodity inflation—in other words, a significant correction of some duration within the context of a long-term secular bull market in commodities. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold Gets Sold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
TTC members were told Thursday morning we could be “hours or days” from a top in gold. The top actually printed two trading days later on Monday, when front month gold futures moved briefly above 1030 and sold off, producing a bearish reversal candle on the daily chart below.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Crude Oil and Commodities Get Clobbered Whilst Equities Barely Changed / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
What do you know, the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DUG) is going up, but the major equity market ETFs, like Q's, SPY, DIA, are barely going down! In other words, it is just the energy sector (XLE) and other commodity sectors, that are getting clobbered while the main equity sectors behave very well after a 4% advance. This is what I was thinking on Monday when I managed to buy the high of the DUG-- that the energy and commodity trades (the crowed ones like gold and oil) were about kaput on the upside, which should in theory reverse, sending the DUG above 42.20 into the 45.00-46.00 target zone. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Credit Crisis Hits Gold As Margin Calls Hit Investment Funds / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD and gold futures prices sank as the US open drew near on Wednesday, falling almost 3% to bounce off a seven-session low as oil prices and soft commodities continued to tick lower and European stocks climbed back from an earlier 1.2% drop.In Australia a major real-estate investment fund today faced a A$30 million margin call (US$27.9m), reports the Herald Sun, while the highly-geared Wesfarmers fund denied rumors it could only re-finance an outstanding US$3.7 billion private-equity debt at 4% above prevailing cash rates.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold and Platinum- A Tale of Two Metals / Commodities / Platinum
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times," Charles Dickens famously wrote. That certainly describes markets nowadays, doesn't it?
Heck, Ben Bernanke chopped both the fed funds rate and the discount rate by 75 basis points yesterday — another indication of just how bad things have really gotten.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold Healthy Consolidation Following US Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was up $2.20 to $1003 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday while silver was down 30 cents to $19.89 per ounce. In illiquid electronic trading after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points, very counter intuitively gold fell in value by nearly 2%. With gold already up by more than 19% so far this year (some 10 weeks), consolidation is healthy and to be expected.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Agricultural Commodities Correction Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Corrections are a friend of investors. Same is true for professional traders. Traders on Main Street enjoy them less. Learn to take advantage of them, rather than be buffeted by them. Investors should be anticipating any possible correction in their favorite industries in order to make timely purchases. Currently, for example, the Agri-Food sector may be developing one of the first good corrections in some time. Cash prices for many Agri-Food commodities have retreated.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Uranium Stocks Bearish Trend With Potential for Bottom Formation / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Another downer of a day for the uranium stocks but looking at the chart it looks more like the start of a reversal activity than a continuation of a bear. Yes, the Index did close lower but the daily action stayed within the confines of yesterday's activity. A real down day would be a close below yesterday's low. Anyway, the Merv's Daily Uranium I ndex closed lower by 0.051 points or 1.67%. There were 20 winners, 25 losers and 5 unchanged.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Gold to Sell off to $940 on US Interest Rate Cut Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Big day for gold and the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) because just about everyone believes that the Fed will cut rates 75 to 100 bps, which will crush the dollar and trigger another upleg in gold. My technical work argues differently -- that the GLD has peak and that "good news" will be sold at the top of the Jan-Mar channel, and the GLD will traverse towards the lower portion of the channel, now in the vicinity of 94.00. Read full article... Read full article...