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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, January 25, 2021

Precious Metals Could Decline Before their Next Attempt to Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside US Dollar and Treasury Yields.  The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions.  Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector).  Let’s explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.

Weekly custom valuations index chart

The first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below.  The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020.  Gold also peaked at this very same time.  This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector.

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Commodities

Friday, January 22, 2021

Silver Price 2021 Roadmap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, the editor of Silver Stock Investor, looks at silver's bull markets since the 1970s and discusses what he thinks lies ahead. There's no consensus on whether silver is in its second or third secular bull market since the 1970s. That's because people define bull markets in different ways.

But as I'll show you, it's not that important.

What we do know is that silver enjoyed a huge bull market from about 1971 until 1980, and then another major bull run from about 2001 until 2011.

Most secular bull markets run through a period, usually about half-ways on the time scale, where the commodity's price falls by about 50%, sometimes more. This is an observation by the legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers.

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Commodities

Friday, January 22, 2021

Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold moved higher as the USD Index moved lower in today’s pre-market trading. Before providing you with my thoughts on why that happened and what the implications are, let’s see exactly what transpired.

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Commodities

Friday, January 22, 2021

How to Survive a Silver-Gold Sucker Punch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Anyone who owns precious metals, mining shares or metals' ETFs knows the drill.

First, gold and silver begin to establish an uptrend on the charts. Analysts (like us) start writing about how prices are getting ready to make an upside run.

Then "out of nowhere" thousands of highly margined futures contracts hit the market on the short side, "re-painting" the charts, sending terror into the hearts of stackers and those who believe in "honest money."

The reality is that honest money is being manipulated for personal gain by dishonest traders, enabled by "regulators" who, to put it charitably, look the other way.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 21, 2021

Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The price of gold has declined further amid incoming U.S. President Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus and poor economic data, which is a bearish sign.

The weakness in the gold market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix declined below $1,840 last Friday (the price of the yellow metal later declined even further, i.e., below $1,830).
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Commodities

Thursday, January 21, 2021

How To Play The Next Stage Of The Marijuana Boom / Commodities / Cannabis

By: OilPrice_Com

In the biggest boost for cannabis since Canada legalized recreational use in 2018, the United Nations has reclassified marijuana, removing it from its most strict drug control list, paving the way for a flurry of positive legal activity the world over …

But while U.S. states line up to legalize recreational use, and while a change of power at the White House bodes well for cannabis stocks, there are two multi-billion-dollar elements that were missing, and one upstart company is aimed directly at this kingdom. 

The kingdom is quality cannabis underpinned by the kind of big data that could make Big Pharma come knocking on doors. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Biden Bailout, Democrat Takeover to Drive Americans into Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

As investors await the incoming Biden administration and the uncertainties that a transition of power may bring, precious metals markets regained some ground through Thursday’s close but have pulled back again on Friday, especially silver and platinum.

Precious metals prices and financial markets have seemingly been unaffected by recent political turmoil. Investors have been nonchalant in the face of Capitol unrest and a second impeachment of President Donald Trump – not to mention fresh new records in daily COVID deaths.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Hurray! The disastrous year of 2020, which brought about the COVID-19 pandemic , the Great Lockdown , and the economic crisis , is over! Now, the question is what will 2021 be like – both for the U.S. economy and the gold market.

To provide an answer, below I analyze the most important economic trends for the next year and their implications for the yellow metal.

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Commodities

Monday, January 18, 2021

Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold/SPX indicated the excess and the gold miners are correcting that excess

In and around the August time frame we noted (in NFTRH) high risk to the gold miners because the price of HUI had gotten a million miles ahead of gold’s ratio to the stock market. That was typical bit in the mouth enthusiasm by the gold “community”, as even Warren Buffett bought a gold stock (and signaled a top).

This chart (and another I have like it) revealed to us in real time the excessive condition. Could the miners have just kept going, into a bubble of their own? Sure, but very unlikely. Amid the bubble making elsewhere gold, silver and the miners are doing the right thing… and they are doing nothing that they did not do several times in the bull market circa 2001-2007. Those bull market grinds were interminable, but ultimately gave way to grand new highs when the healthy corrective work was complete.

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Commodities

Monday, January 18, 2021

Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The price of gold remains at $1,850, and the key drivers are higher bond yields and a stronger risk appetite.

Last week, the yellow metal tanked below $1,900 again, and it hasn’t rebounded since the plunge – instead, the price of gold has stayed at around $1,850.

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Commodities

Friday, January 15, 2021

Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

What a week! First gold soared to almost $1,960, but then its price (London P.M. Fix) plunged to $1,863 on January 8, as the chart below shows.

This is quite strange (and bearish) behavior, given what happened last week. First, there were violent pro-Trump protests in Washington D.C. The rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol. During these riots, five people died. Given the chaos in the capital, gold, which is a safe-haven asset , should shine.

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Commodities

Friday, January 15, 2021

On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger ruminates on how the storming of the U.S. Capitol has affected both America's reputation and the precious metals markets, as well as on the value of "value."

The events of this week are dominating the news cycle, with a sitting president days away from being replaced while Congressional and Senatorial leaders debate whether he should be impeached immediately.

If I were having a chat with Mr. Trump, I would advise him to refrain from reading his own press clippings because they will only offer you glimpses of past glory and never reveal the reality of the moment. It's like that great story where Gordie Howe asks a hungover rookie to pick up his game, to which the rookie replies, "I had four goals last night; I can afford a night off." Gordie placed his size fifteen hand around the kid's neck, slowly squeezing, and said "Son, you are only as good as your last shift." Trump should have been on the bench to hear that.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Ken_Ticehurst

Below is our long term gold forecast, it continues to be bullish on a monthly basis, despite the turbulence of 2020 gold has performed well and a pause for a few months is entirely reasonable given the speed of its initial acceleration.

As you can see from our monthly chart, gold is clearly at significant levels - hovering around the 2011 highs, the underlying structure of the market is still very positive (big blue line) and the bull signal (small blue line) which turned positive in March 2018, still remains bullish. We think a monthly close above $2000 in the next few months would be a significant moment.

From the lows of late 2018 gold has quietly performed well relative to the S&P 500, we have included below our weekly and monthly GOLD/SPX ratio forecasts, you can see on a monthly basis that gold is cheap relative to the SPX and on a weekly basis we are approaching the long term floor. We will be looking for this ratio to begin to turn during 2021.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Reflation Trade Heating Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

In this first trading week of 2021, a new investment theme appears to be emerging. That theme can be summed up in a single word – reflation.

A resurgence of inflation is being priced into asset classes across the board. Stocks are rallying to new records. Shares of Tesla and alternative energy companies are going to the moon. Marijuana stocks are suddenly back in vogue. Bitcoin is going bonkers.

Crude oil, copper, and other commodities also started to break out this week. But precious metals markets pulled back sharply this morning on the heels of a bad jobs report., meaning these markets require more time to work their way back up to last year’s highs.

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Commodities

Monday, January 11, 2021

Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

2021 started off well for gold. It’s not surprising, as January is usually positive for the yellow metal, but the Georgia runoff results may constitute an additional bullish factor in the longer term.

What a start to the new year! Gold has begun 2021 very well : as the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (London A.M. Fix) increased from $1,891 on December 31, 2020 to $1,947 on January 5, 2021.

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Commodities

Monday, January 11, 2021

Precious Metals rally early in 2021 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you follow our research, you already know my research team and I have authored multiple articles related to how Metals and Miners are poised for a big rally in 2021 and beyond.  But do you understand what this means for other market sectors and assets?  Are you ready for one of the most dynamic investing environments we’ve seen since 1945 or earlier? Gold and Miners are showing very clear signs that the Depreciation cycle phase our researchers identified recently is strongly in place.

Precious Metals vs. Miners in a Depreciation Cycle Phase

Gold and Miners are showing very clear signs that the Depreciation cycle phase our researchers identified recently is strongly in place.  Both Gold and the Mining sector have been rallying since early 2016.  This rally initiated in the midst of an Appreciation cycle phase (between late 2010 and the end of 2019). The rotation between Appreciation and Depreciation cycle phases directly correlates with the underlying strength of the US Dollar, precious metals, and other market sector trends.  At this point, the new Depreciation cycle phase means the global markets will transition away from Appreciation phase trends and into new defensive/sector rotation trends.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 10, 2021

Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold Price at or Near Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The thing that most likely raised quite a few eyebrows this week was – in addition to gold’s recent move by itself – the fact that gold rallied mostly without the dollar’s help. Yesterday (Jan. 5) I wrote that one swallow doesn’t make a summer and that a single session rarely changes much.

We didn’t have to wait for long – the situation seems to be getting back to normal.

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Commodities

Friday, January 08, 2021

Gold Is Still a Bargain Buy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth discusses the confluence of factors that points to the gold bull market having plenty of upside ahead. In investing, as in life, perspective is everything.

To some, gold at $1,525 as we started out 2020 seemed expensive. Today, it's trading at $1,940, producing a 27% gain.

And yet, from several viewpoints, gold still looks cheap at current prices. Debt, easy money and geopolitical risks are ever present. And these have all been tough on the U.S. dollar. Ongoing weakness in the greenback looks set to continue, providing a huge tailwind for gold prices.

So much, well beyond the kitchen sink, has been thrown at trying to support the economy and kick-start activity. Yet we can't ignore vital indicators. Negative-yielding debt levels, ongoing negative real interest rates and anemic money velocity despite exploding money supply mean rising hard asset prices look inevitable.

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Commodities

Friday, January 08, 2021

Gold Price Set to Soar as Hyperinflation Looms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the dollar's fall and what it means for gold. We now have a very rare setup for gold which is in position to "go ballistic" as the dollar collapses. The dollar is being intentionally destroyed by the Fed, which is creating dollars in vast unprecedented quantities in order to buy up distressed assets on the cheap and in order to pave the way for the new "digital dollar." We are in the last stages of the fiat endgame where money creation goes vertical, quickly leading to it becoming worthless, as happened in Venezuela and Zimbabwe, and of course hyperinflation is a great way to pay off debt, because you can do so with worthless currency.

One worry that has been vexing would be investors in the precious metals sector in recent weeks is that gold and silver won't rise much because big banks like JP Morgan will cap it by dumping onto the paper market. The key point to keep in mind is that gold is "real money" and this being so the idea that a currency like the dollar can collapse towards zero and gold won't go up because the banks will be selling it on the paper market is both absurd and ridiculous – what would happen is that an untenable massive gap would develop between the price on the paper market and the price on the physical market, and the paper market would become rapidly irrelevant and obsolete, so we don't have to worry about that. In fact, to the extent that they are actually suppressing the gold price, all they are doing is creating a "pressure cooker" effect that will lead to a massive upside explosion, but you certainly don't want to wait for that to happen before you take positions across the sector.

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Commodities

Friday, January 08, 2021

Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold ended 2020 at $1,891, partially thanks to monetary policy easing. In 2021, the Fed may not trigger a comparable rally in gold, but it should offer gold prices some support.

Welcome to 2021! I hope that it will be a wonderful year for all of you; a much healthier, calmer and normal year than 2020 was. And even more profitable of course! Indeed, at least gold bulls could be satisfied with the last year, in which the price of gold jumped from $1,523 to $1,891 ( London A.M. Fix )! It means that the yellow metal gained more than 24 percent, as the chart below shows.

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