Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, July 06, 2012
Gold, The Ancient Metal of Kings / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
"The fundamental factors that have driven the gold bull market... remain very much in place." ~ Morgan Stanley.
"Fears of another banking crisis amid a Greek exit from the euro zone are growing. This also raises the likelihood of further central bank action to calm markets and alleviate a possible slump. Money printing, along with the European Central Bank's large liquidity injections for the banking system, has been good for gold. And real interest rates are negative in much of the developed world, which will also fuel fears of an eventual jump in inflation." ~ Moneyweek.com
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Friday, July 06, 2012
Deflation Black Hole Turns Into Runaway Inflation, What of Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
In a Democratic world as well as in undemocratic nations the political and social consequences of deflation are considerably worse than those of inflation.
But the concept of inflation is poorly understood. In today's world it is thought of as simply rising prices due to shortages. In economics there are several forms of inflation that appear in different circumstances.
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Friday, July 06, 2012
The Next Time Silver Crosses Above $30.00 Will Be The Last Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
It has been an interesting week on the economic stimulus front with what looks like a co-ordinated effort by the major powers to ignite their respective economies.The European Central Bank (ECB) made the headlines with a widely anticipated cut to its key interest rate of a quarter of a percentage point to a record low 0.75 per cent in an attempt to ease Europe's financial crisis and boost its stagnating economy. This move by the ECB will make it cheaper for people and the business community to borrow and ultimately spend this cheap cash.
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Friday, July 06, 2012
U.S Gold Net Exports Increased Substantially During First Quarter 2012 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Something very interesting took place in the first three months of 2012. Last year, the United States was a net importer of gold during the first quarter. However this year, the U.S. became a huge net exporter of gold during the same time period. This information was acquired from the latest USGS Gold Mineral Industry Surveys.
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Thursday, July 05, 2012
Silver, Gold and The Coming Deflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Historically gold has made its significant gains, relative to other assets (as well as nominally), not during inflation, but during deflation (Note: I am using the terms inflation and deflation very loosely in this case). These significant gold rallies historically occur when value flees instruments such as stocks and certain commodities.
Since the 1920s there have been three major gold rallies (1930s, 1970s and the current rally).
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Thursday, July 05, 2012
Russia & Brazil’s Strategic Alliance Continue / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Russia and Brazil, both major commodity nations, make a strategic pair with Russia ranking among the world’s top producers in the energy and metals sectors while Brazil is a strong exporter of agricultural products, cars, machinery and iron ore. Trade between the two countries grew five-fold in the period from 2002-2008. In 2010 Brazil and Russia entered into an agreement to boost trade between their countries and enter into strategic partnerships in the areas of energy, infrastructure and space exploration.
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Thursday, July 05, 2012
India Profits from Downturn in World Steel Production / Commodities / Metals & Mining
The EU crisis and global recessionary trends have dampened steel production. With lowered prices and falling demand, steel producers are looking to cut costs by shutting down unprofitable plants. According to researcher World Steel Dynamics, prices for hot rolled steel have fallen by 12% since February 2012 and a further drop in price is expected. Capacity utilization is also down to 76% from 80%. To keep prices stable in the current global environment, steel production needs to slow down. Germany’s ThyssenKrupp AG is trying to sell its loss-making sheet-metal plant in Alabama, while Arcelor-Mittal has closed a Belgian plant and is idling some of its other plants.
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Thursday, July 05, 2012
The Return of the Gold Standard / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
In my latest book, The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy - How to Save Yourself and Your Country, I devote a full chapter to the merits of the historical gold standard and reasons to reinstate it. What I did not mention and few investors notice is that central banks are already returning to gold as the ultimate safe haven asset.
I believe this change in policy, combined with continued inflation of Western currencies, is creating a stable floor for the gold price and an even brighter upside potential.
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Thursday, July 05, 2012
SocGen Advises "Holding Gold Tight" as ECB, China Cut Rates, UK Prints Another £50bn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
WHOLESALE Dollar prices to buy gold eased 0.5% from a new 2-week high at $1624 per ounce Thursday lunchtime in London, as the Euro currency fell hard following a widely expected cut to European Central Bank interest rates.
The ECB cut its key lending rate to a new record low of 0.75%, and also cut the interest rate paid to commercial banks holding cash on deposit at the central bank to zero.
Thursday, July 05, 2012
Expected ECB Rate Cut Likely to Push Gold Prices Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Today’s AM fix was USD 1616.75, EUR 1292.99 and GBP 1037.58 per ounce.Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1617.00, EUR 1285.37 and GBP 1032.90 per ounce.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2012
The Godmother Ran Out Of Luck: Saudi And Global Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
In a recent (29 June) Market Oracle article, Andrew Butter writes: "One suspects that behind the Saudi rhetoric about keeping oil prices fair for the sake of the world economy and world peace…like a modern day fairy-godmother-of-last-resort, there is the thought that if prices stay above $120 or so for long then some serious E&P investment is going to get directed into that area, rather like the investment in the North Sea in the 1970’s which kept prices a long way lower than “fair”…until that oil ran out".
Quite right, but the not-so-new Saudi Nice Price of $75 is now cheap oil, and itself proves we have Peak Oil in a wholly unexpected way.
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Gold "Helped by Short Covering" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
WHOLESALE MARKET gold prices held steady around $1615 an ounce during Wednesday morning's London trading – 1.1% up on last week's close – while stocks edged lower and the Dollar gained, amid reports that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow.
A day earlier, gold prices rallied as high as $1624 an ounce during Tuesday's US trading, the last trading day before today's Independence Day holiday.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Falling Crude Oil Prices Offer Great Stock Buying Opportunities / Commodities / Oil Companies
The "experts" had been talking about oil prices going to $130 per barrel. Now there's talk of $50–60 per barrel oil. Either end of that spectrum is not sustainable in the long run, says Byron King. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, he explains why he believes prices will settle in the $80–100 range. In the meantime, the recent pullback offers some interesting buying opportunities for investors ready to pounce when the market finds a bottom, as well as some names investors can nibble on right now.
The Energy Report: Things have been pretty hectic on the global economic and financial fronts lately and the energy markets seem to be defying the expectations and predictions of many analysts. What's your take on where we are and where things are headed?
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Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Which Course Will North American Natural Gas Producers Choose? / Commodities / Natural Gas
Marin Katusa, Casey Research writes: News of a "monster" natural gas find in British Columbia has one again highlighted that North Americans need to make a choice. Do we want to keep the huge volumes of natural gas that have been discovered in recent years across the continent landlocked and transportable only by pipeline, or should we develop the infrastructure that will enable us to transport this fuel to the gas-hungry markets of Asia?
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Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Unconventional Oil is NOT a Game Changer / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil prices have been falling.
This is no surprise to us here at The Automatic Earth, as our position is that the 2008 price peak will stand for a very long time, and that the rise from the 2009 low has been a counter-trend rally. Prices of many assets have been moving with the ebb and flow of confidence, and therefore of liquidity, in this era of extreme financialization, and commodities are no exception.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Gold Stocks, How Undervalued? Part2 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Continued from the last article...
Something missing here?
There is another important factor left out of this research train of thought however; and that is 'cost of production'. We have to be careful to get this right or we could end up comparing apples to oranges. Therefore to complete this line of reasoning we have to consider the profitability factor. Cash costs are confusing across the industry because they are not standardized. Royalties and other factors vary from company to company and lease to lease.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2012
"QE3 Probability" Could Boost Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
SPOT MARKET gold prices traded close to $1610 an ounce for most of Tuesday morning in London, after breaking through the $1600 mark during the earlier Asian session.
Silver prices touched $28 an ounce for the first time in nearly two weeks, while stocks and commodities also gained after disappointing US manufacturing data led to renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve might launch a third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Did the EU Summit Affect Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
The markets rallied last week as European leaders made progress at a two-day summit in Brussels. European Union participants said they would speed up plans to create a single supervisor to regulate the region’s banking system, and also agreed that EU bailout funds should be used to directly increase capital of struggling banks. The news was a surprise to traders, but little has changed in the big picture.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Gold Stocks the Way to Benefit from Gold Bullion Price Strength / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Henk J. Krasenberg, analyst and founder of the European Gold Centre and author and publisher of the GOLDVIEW newsletter, sees no lack of potential among small-cap equities, especially for investors willing to look beyond the U.S. borders. He offers names in Europe and Africa—what he calls "the poorest and richest continent"—and reminds us that Mexico produces a lot more than silver. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, Krasenberg counsels patience because "you have to wait for the development."
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Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Gold and Silver Paper Sellers Conveniently Trapped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
The large and mostly naked holders of short positions in precious metals are conveniently trapped, especially in the silver market. Covering in any meaningful way would blow the U.S. Dollar's cover.
The Dollar’s increasingly serious valuation issues are also being ignored, but this may only last as long as the Euro continues to remain in the currency market’s spotlight as a target for selling pressure as Europe’s debt problems deepen.
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