Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Bernanke's Faux Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Whitney
"Economic recovery" is a term that has no fixed meaning. But it's worth mulling-over to determine whether aggregate demand is strong enough to keep the economy from tipping back into recession. In normal times, the Fed slashes interest rates to increase the flow of capital to the markets and to consumers via lending at the banks. That's the traditional method of "jump starting" the economy. The Fed has never initiated policies which provide unlimited guarantees for underwater financial institutions. Nor has it ever poured more than a trillion dollars directly into the financial system by creating excess reserves at the banks and direct purchases of long-term assets. (Quantitative Easing) All of this is new.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
The Statistical Economic Recovery and Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
Thoughts on the Statistical RecoveryLies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics
The Problem of Seasonal Adjustments
The Job Creation Engine
A Double-Dip Recession?
Dad Gets a Lively Lesson
We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out this summer, it is going to be a recovery in the statistics and not in the things that count, such as income and employment. This week we look at the nascent recovery (which could be at 3% this quarter) and try to peer out into the future to see what it means. We look at how recoveries come about, and why I am concerned that we will see a double-dip recession. Plus, I learned some new tricks courtesy of my new granddaughter, to whom Tiffani gave birth this week1 There is a lot to cover, but it should be interesting.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Barack Obama Ensures a Long Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Benjamin_Weingarten
Political success, as reflected in the recent gubernatorial races appears ever-more staked on the state of the economy. Official unemployment recently measured 10 percent, though the more-honest gauge (U-6) shows the nation running unemployment at a Depression-like 17.2 percent.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Are We Heading for a Gigantic Economic Monetary Deflationary Collapse? / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Robert_Bradshaw
When a top French Bank warns the French people that a gigantic economic/monetary/deflationary collapse could be very close, thinking people must wake up and take notice. This happened on or about Nov 19th in an article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from the London Telegraph. I read this prediction with interest from the Society Generale Bank in France. But the importance of this assertion is not only because this bank is near the top in thinking in the European Union, it is most assuredly a leading Rothschild controlled bank with much insider knowledge of what is coming down the pike.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Auto and Gasoline Sales Help Boost November Retail Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: LiveCharts
Despite initial reports from many retailers that the start to the holiday season has been relatively sluggish, the Commerce Department reported Friday (December 11) morning that retail sales climbed by 1.3 per cent in November. This follows a 1.1 per cent boost in retail performance during October.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Debt and the Blowout Federal Deficit, Economic Review of 2009 / Economics / US Debt
By: Andy_Sutton
In an effort to get out ahead of the rush of year-end summaries, commentaries, and reviews, we’re going to try something a little bit different this year and leave 20 days of 2009 on the table. The themes discussed at the outset of 2009 were all longer-term in nature anyway, and it is unlikely that anything major will happen to unsettle those themes during the last few days of the year. Incidentally, a buffalo nickel goes to the first person to email in if I happen to be wrong on that last assertion. So without further delay..
Friday, December 11, 2009
Sovereign Debt Defaults the Next Shoe to Drop? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Larson
Governments the world over have spent the past year bailing out, backstopping, insuring, and stimulating their financial sectors and economies. Trillions of dollars, euros, yen, and pounds have been thrown around like Halloween candy. Officials have assured us there’s little risk to that strategy.
But we have warned consistently that the opposite is true. Our stance: If you borrow and spend too much, all you’re going to do is transform a Wall Street debt crisis into a Washington debt crisis.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Thanks to the Fed We Live in a Crystal Meth Economy / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: David_Calderwood
As I see it, booms and busts are a natural part of human social behavior. Cycles appear throughout history and are part of the dynamism of humanity of which Butler Shaffer so eloquently writes. If this is so, then what role do central banks play in the modern world?
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Bernanke Blamed, U.S. Economy Lost Revenues and Inflation /Deflation Fears / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In the words of one of my favorite singer-song writers, Willie Nelson (another one of my favorites is Marisa Kasriel), I am on the road again. Forthwith are some thoughts that came to me as I listened to Willie on recent flights.
Did Bernanke Get Grilled for the Sins of Others?
Before hitting the "send" button on the hate email, let me tell you that Ben Bernanke is not an indispensable Fed chairman. I have no doubt that there are many people who could do a better job than he (but no one has called). Having said that, I was amused by some of the haranguing he was subjected to at his Senate confirmation hearing last week. Okay, now you can hit the "send" button.
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Thursday, December 10, 2009
The Power of The Theory of Money and Credit / Economics / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Douglas_French
With the great bursting of the real-estate bubble in 2008, the federal government is reforming and expanding its regulatory oversight in hopes of legislating away booms and busts. Recent decades have featured a series of speculative manias followed by harrowing financial busts, with central banks applying the same tonic — a flood of monetary stimulus — to salve the nation's financial wounds.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
European Monetary System Crisis, Debt Show Down in Athens / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Whitney
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou has the European Central Bank over a barrel and doesn't even know it. If he had a handle on the situation, he'd thumb his nose at the ECB's austerity measures, and demand a no-strings-attached loan package to help his country get through the current rough patch. Instead, he's carrying on like a faint-hearted schoolboy.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Leave Free Markets to Themselves, Nothing Else Will Work / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Don_Cooper
A market is the voluntary coming together of two groups of people: those that have something to sell and those that want to buy what is being sold at the price it is being offered. The former group is called producers and the latter consumers.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Larry Summers is Steering U.S. Economy Towards Structural Adjustment / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
There's no fixed number of greenbacks in a vault at the Treasury which limit how much the federal government can spend. Since the US pays its debts in its own currency--it can print as many dollars as it pleases. Of course, if boosting the money supply triggers inflation, the Fed has to withdraw liquidity and raise interest rates. But that's not the problem at present. The problem is how to zap the economy back to life.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Socialist Debt Crisis Greece Puts Pressure on ECB For Bailout / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Whitney
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou has the European Commission over a barrel and doesn't even know it. Instead of dragging the EC over the coals--like he should --he's carrying on like a blubbering crybaby. "Steady on there, Georgie". Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson didn't go wobbly when he stormed up Capital Hill and demanded a $700 billion TARP bailout, did he? Well, then, at least learn from history.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
All Eyes Down for a UK Credit Debt Default / Economics / UK Debt
By: Adrian_Ash
Another small social pleasure done to death by the socialists...
WHAT BETTER WAY to mark New Labour's last budget in power than by granting a tax cut on bingo...?
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Wednesday, December 09, 2009
The Economic Curse of Good Government / Economics / Government Intervention
By: William_Anderson
As one who has made a career out of criticizing government and exposing the various predations of government, one would think I would be intelligent and wise enough not to expect that entity we know as "good government." In fact, given that I am quite familiar with the entire socialist calculation debate and have assigned numerous papers covering that subject to my MBA students, it should have dawned upon me by now that "good government" is an oxymoron at best and a delusional term at worst.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Aristophanes on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Clifford_F_Thies
It used to be that every economist worth his salt knew Gresham's Law (or, if he was Polish, Copernicus's Law): "bad money drives out good." Narrowly understood, this rule says that when the government requires people to accept different forms of money at an exchange rate fixed by law, the form of money that is overvalued (the "bad money") will circulate, while the form of money that is undervalued (the "good money") won't.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Debt Deleveraging Is a Necessary Consequence of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Chris_Galakoutis
A blinding affliction can be seen with the gold bugs. Make reference to a strong dollar and falling gold, and you must be a supporter of the central banks, as well as the powerful families with cross-border tentacles that stand behind them. In our case, nothing could be further from the truth. We must put politics and other biases aside if we are to understand the big picture, in order to avoid, and not be ruined by, what’s around the corner.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Have We Avoided the Economic Depression Many Feared? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mac_Slavo
President Obama spoke about the economy at the Brookings Institution.
Read full article... Read full article...“We acted to get lending flowing again, so businesses could get loans to buy equipment and ordinary Americans could get financing to buy homes and cars, to go to college, and to start or run businesses. We enacted measures to stem the tide of foreclosures in our housing market, helping responsible home owners stay in their homes and helping to stop the broader decline in home values which was eating away at what tends to be a family’s largest asset.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Government Socialist Intervention and the Distortion of Capital / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frederic_Bastiat
In all times, but more especially of late years, attempts have been made to extend wealth by the extension of credit.
I believe it is no exaggeration to say, that since the revolution of February, the Parisian presses have issued more than 10,000 pamphlets, crying up this solution of the social problem.
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