Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Productive Debt versus Unproductive Debt / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Douglas_French

The credit crunch continues, with businesses large and small finding that their bankers remain exceedingly stingy in the wake of the 2008 financial debacle. "We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers," Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairwoman Sheila Bair told reporters recently after the FDIC released figures showing that the amount of loans outstanding in the nation's banks fell $210.4 billion in the third quarter of 2008. That is the largest quarterly decline since the FDIC began tracking loans in 1984.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

U.S. Unemployment Statistics Numbers, Official, Unofficial, Real / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nilus_Mattive

Last Friday we got word that the employment picture in the U.S. improved substantially over the month of November. According to the Labor Department, the nation shed 11,000 jobs, a mere fraction of the 130,000 economists were expecting.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

U.S. Social Security Will Go Bankrupt in 2010 / Economics / US Debt

By: Gary_North

For the third time in my life, the Social Security System will go belly-up.

The first time was in 1977 – well, almost. To head off the bust, Jimmy Carter got Congress to pass a major FICA tax increase – sorry, "contribution" increase – in order to save Social Security. The rate would be hiked in phases from 2% to 6.15% (times two: employee and employer). He promised: "Now this legislation will guarantee that from 1980 to the year 2030, the Social Security funds will be sound." (http://tinyurl.com/ybksxs4)

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Email Exchange With The Cleveland Fed On U.S. Inflation Expectations / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

A couple weeks ago I received an email from the Cleveland Fed on A New Approach to Gauging Inflation Expectations.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Bernanke Says He Cannot Guarantee Double-Dip Recession Won’t Happen / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mac_Slavo

Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, in a speech to the Economic Club of Washington, said that it is too early to declare a lasting recovery:

Monday, December 07, 2009

Guide to Keynes's Dangerous and Destructive Economic Theory / Economics / Economic Theory

By: David_Gordon

Defenders of Keynes, such as the recent convert Bruce Bartlett, often claim that he supported capitalism. (Bartlett's The New American Economy has this as a primary theme.) His interventionist measures had as their aim not the replacement of capitalism by socialism or fascism. Rather, it is alleged, Keynes aimed to save the existing order.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Where Is the U.S. Economy Heading? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Frank_Shostak

Economists are currently divided on the issue of how strong the US economic recovery is going to be. Some are of the view that as a result of the stimulus policies of the Fed and the Federal government, the recovery is going to be quite strong. Some others are more pessimistic given still-rising unemployment, which they believe will keep consumer spending subdued. In October the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% from 9.8% in the previous month and 6.6% in October last year.

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Deflationary Economic Depression 2010, Ready or Not Here it Comes! / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Much has been written about the Great Depression and the present crisis. There is much that is similar and some that is not. The differences explain why events have unfolded differently. The similarities explain why the end will be the same.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Marc Faber Why Dubai Debt Default is Just the Tip of the Iceberg / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: LewRockwell

Uber bear investor and Gloom, Boom and Doom Report editor Marc Faber says Dubai World’s debt problems are just the tip of the iceberg, and suggests investors will be better off not buying U.S. government bonds.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

U.S. Unemployment Rate Edges Lower to 10%, But Jobs Keep Contracting / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Employment Report.

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs..

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Mauldin on the Debt Deleveraging, Deflationary, Asset-bubble-bursting Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

This week I am in New York, and have a whirlwind of meetings (and I admit, a lot of fun on the side) and not much time to write. I have been saving today’s letter for a month or so, for a time such as this. Damien Hoffman of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet interviewed me and posted the transcript on his web site. I thought it was one of the better interviews I have done recently, and so it is this week’s Thoughts from the Frontline. In addition to the wide-ranging economic questions, he asks for my thoughts on how one becomes an investment writer. I often demur when asked that question (what do I know?), but did my best to answer this time. I think you will enjoy the letter. (By the way, he does a lot of interesting interviews, which he posts for free on his web site at www.wallstcheatsheet.com.)

Friday, December 04, 2009

Britain, the Canary down the Western Coal Mine / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Phill_Tomlinson

"We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step."

Friday, December 04, 2009

The Economic Recovery Is Looking Stronger Every Week / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Sy_Harding

The stimulus efforts were expensive for sure, and the cost, like the cost of two 7-year wars that were supposed to be three-month skirmishes, will be with us for years to come. But the stimulus efforts at least seem to be working even faster than expected.

Friday, December 04, 2009

China Looking for Entrepreneurs / Economics / China Economy

By: David_Franke

Filmmaker Ole Schell has given us a compelling one-hour documentary that reveals exactly why we should be concerned about China’s challenge to the United States.

Friday, December 04, 2009

Welcome to the Asian Century / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Money_Morning

[Editor’s Note: This interview was adapted from a recent issue of the McKinsey Quarterly, the business Journal of McKinsey & Co. It is reprinted with McKinsey’s permission.]

Asia has proven comparatively resilient against the current downturn, but hurdles still lie ahead. In order to maintain robust growth rates in the face of weak U.S. demand, the region’s dynamic economies must stoke domestic consumption and embrace environmentally sustainable development policies, says Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia (NYSE: MS) and author of “The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization.”

Thursday, December 03, 2009

How Progressive Capitalism Conquers Mass Poverty / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Henry_Hazlitt

Throughout history, until about the middle of the 18th century, mass poverty was nearly everywhere the normal condition of man. Then capital accumulation and a series of major inventions ushered in the Industrial Revolution. In spite of occasional setbacks, economic progress became accelerative. Today, in the United States, in Canada, in nearly all of Europe, in Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, mass poverty has been practically eliminated. It has either been conquered or is in process of being conquered by a progressive capitalism. Mass poverty is still found in most of Latin America, most of Asia, and most of Africa.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Arizona Runs Out of Cash / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Here is a good story courtesy of the Arizona Republic: Cash-short Ariz. maxes out new line of credit.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

China Will Continue to Drive the Global Economic Recovery in 2010 / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Don Miller writes: China isn’t just leading the global economic recovery – it’s lapping the field.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an 8.9% annual rate in the third quarter – the fastest pace in a year and up from 7.9% in the second quarter And the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for China’s GDP to jump more than 10% in the final three months of 2009, setting the stage for double digit growth in 2010.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

The Five Things Investors Need to Know About China / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Legendary investor, Bill “The Bond King” Gross made headlines recently when he said that China will one day have to contend with a bubble of its own making. Gross runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC (PIMCO). Millions of investors reacted just as you would expect when someone of his prominence makes such a pronouncement – they panicked.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

A Guide to Keynes's Dangerous and Destructive Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: David_Gordon

Where Keynes Went Wrong And Why Governments Keep Creating Inflation, Bubbles, and Busts. By Hunter Lewis. Axios Press, 2009. Vi + 384 pages.