Thursday, November 18, 2021
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.
COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends
Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.
Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Building or upgrading your computer can be scary, but with some research and some guidance you can do it easily! In this series of videos I walk you through how install an AMD AM4 based processor, The Ryzen 5 5600x into the Gigabyte AORUS Elite AX V2 B550 ATX motherboard which supports the AM4 socket Ryzen CPUs. And in this video I show you how to power on your motherboard to make sure it works before you install it into your case so that you know the components work before you commence work on an installation.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin peaked in March 2021 at $65k and then fell to a low of $29k Mid June. Whilst my in-depth look at crypto's of Mid June based on preceding bull and bear markets concluded that BTC could trade down to under $20k, for a drop of at least 70% off the peak that failed to materialise. Which means none of my string of buy limits from $26k down to $16k were triggered and thus I hold no bitcoin.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Open an account with FREE TRADE, fund it with just £1 and you get a FREE SHARE worth between £3 and £200! Woooaaah! Apple? AMD? IBM? Nvidia? Microsoft even? If not what about Intel?
Not just that but you can also get a SECOND free trade if you go on and open their stocks and shares ISA! The value of which is dependant upon how much you transfer or deposit, check out the full details in the video and so you too can get 2 free shares! But you MUST sign up with a referral link https://magic.freetrade.io/join/nadeem/4c9ba1da , downloading the app directly won't get you anything!
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Last week’s surge in gold and silver prices was due, at least in part, to a realization by Wall Street traders that inflation isn’t going away.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had assured us all the trend higher in prices would be “transitory,” but another giant surge in the Consumer Price Index has investors wondering if they can believe anything Powell says.
They shouldn’t. People should view most of what Powell has to say about inflation in the same manner as they now view “14 days to flatten the curve” and other government lies.
Powell is well aware that higher prices are anything but temporary. For starters, many of the drivers behind higher prices are structural and won’t be disappearing any time soon.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse / Companies / Metaverse
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler - Imagine if McDonald’s (MCD) started selling cars…
Or Netflix (NFLX) got out of the movie business to deliver burritos…
Or Walmart (WMT) said it was developing a new cancer drug…
To many investors, Facebook’s (FB) big pivot is just as big a head-scratcher.
As you’ve probably heard by now, the social media giant announced it’s becoming a metaverse company.
Thursday, November 18, 2021
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead?I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years?
A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate.
B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy.
C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy.
D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Silver vs US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One would expect an inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Silver. The below chart shows periods when the dollar has been falling (USD Index) in RED and rising in blue, during which time there does tend to be a tendency for Silver price to exhibit an inverse relationship to varying degree.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Silver Supply and Demand Balance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So if Silver is closer to being an industrial commodity then a precious metal then one should look at supply and industrial demand for Silver for signs and portents of what the price may do.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.
AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.
Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: MoneyMetals
President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion “infrastructure” bill into law on Monday amid growing concerns that his administration’s policies are fueling higher inflation.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, is warning of an economically and politically ruinous inflation problem brewing.
He wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy” will “threaten prosperity and public trust unless clearly acknowledged and addressed.”
That was an apparent swipe at the Biden administration’s pattern of denials and misdirections whenever confronted about inflation.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Raymond_Matison
The promise of electronic currencies
A couple of decades ago the internet started to revolutionize society in ways that could not have been predicted. Email systems developed and evolved to become indispensable and ubiquitous. People could sift and classify business data on spreadsheets in order to make smart business decisions faster. Vast libraries of books, data, news and other information from around the globe became increasingly available to anyone interested to read it. Global maps, archived music, and films could be shared, viewed, and listened to by anyone with a computer and access to the internet. Internet shopping became a reality; and just when it seemed that technological innovation might be slowing, all of these services migrated from desk-top computers to smart telephones. And this technology brought with it incredible amounts of new wealth.
Now continuing technological development is promising additional decades of innovation, that among other things will change ways in which we conduct financial payments, remit money across borders, invest in stocks, bonds and real estate, and control and custody our personal savings. These new technologies can be seen as decentralizing and liberating in the sense that individuals will be their own financial gatekeepers able to function as their own bank, without the need for permission from any trusted third party. This has already, and will continue to create much new wealth over coming years.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So called transitory US inflation surged to 5.4% for September remaining sticky at above 5% with little signs of moderation and thus likely to prompt the Fed to taper in the near future to signal intentions to bring inflation down to 2% in 2 years time as their 'transitory' propaganda smoke screen is wearing thin. Of course real US inflation in is at least double official fake CPI. Whilst the real rate of inflation in the UK is even worse, likely 3 to 4 times official CPI i.e. about 15% to 20%.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Are gold prices really bottoming? That all depends on the indicator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Donald_W_Dony
Holding gold has largely been about a hedge for inflation, weak US dollar or a store of safety during times of trouble. At present, it is the inflationary pressures that is the main driving force for the yellow metal.
Inflationary pressures are building around the world as the global economy tries to reopen. Consumer prices are sharply rising with the US Inflation rate posting a three-decade high of 6.2% in October and Germany hitting 4.5%, the highest level since 1993.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Gold Stocks technically short-term bullish, but… / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
An update of the gold stock bounce
As a TA, I respect charts first and foremost. On occasion that respect has burned me as I’ve missed big profit opportunity or not seen a disaster unfolding that the charts missed. But much more often it helps me profit or saves me from disastrous ends. TA is just one tool in the box. An important one, but it should not stand alone. With the gold stocks especially, the correct macro-fundamentals matter.
Lately, with respect to the HUI Gold Bugs index, TA has helped me (and NFTRH subscribers) manage a low born of over-bearish sentiment at a key long-term support area (230 ), one of three downside targets we’ve had open since the correction began in summer 2020. For management of the correction and its bounces we’ve used various charts of varying detail and time frames. But last week in NFTRH 680 we simplified to the daily view below. With the rally now in full flight it is time to be paying attention to what may come next.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Investing Tips For New Investors / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Mark_Adan
1. Know Your Investment Goals
There are several key questions every potential investor should ask themselves before venturing into the industry. Your reasons for investing and how long are two of the key questions you should have an answer to before you can venture into the stock market. Are you looking to grow your wealth, saving for retirement, or hoping for a house deposit? It is only after identifying and defining your investment goals that you’ll be able to determine what stocks to invest in and for how long.
Monday, November 15, 2021
Stock Market Inflation Consequences - S&P Dividend Yield vs CPI / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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