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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Personal_Finance

Friday, December 24, 2021

How to Put Up Outdoor CHRISTMAS Lights Mains and Battery Powered 2021 - Top Tips / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: Eliza_Walayat

Counting down to Christmas, it's early December and time to start putting up the Christmas lights for 2021, here's how we put up our battery powered and mains powered lights, so you too can get tips such as using a dry box to power your outdoor lights.

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Commodities

Friday, December 24, 2021

Strong 2021 Demand for Physical Precious Metals, Despite Paper Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Even as Omicron casts a pall over markets and upcoming Christmas celebrations, precious metals investors are feeling at least some holiday cheer this week.

The gold market put in a modest rally on Wednesday and Thursday to erase earlier losses. The white metals, meanwhile, are outperforming gold.

Demand for physical precious metals has been strong in 2021 even though you wouldn’t know it from following the paper price of gold. In addition to robust bullion buying from investors, jewelry demand is also strengthening.

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Companies

Thursday, December 23, 2021

APPLE AR Headset Coming 2022 - Metaverse Tech Stocks Analysis / Companies / Apple

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Apple has been working on an augmented reality goggles headset for several years and there are rumours that this will make it to market during late 2022 as Apple attempts to play catchup to the success of Facebook's Oculus headsets likely built around Apples M1 processors rather than be tethered to either an Apple Mac or Iphone so is likely to be expensive when compared to the Quest headsets, probably priced at at least £999, near triple the usable Quest that costs £399 and it could be priced a lot higher than that, maybe as high as £2000!

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, December 23, 2021

What is Frosted Window Film and How Long Does It Last / Personal_Finance / Home Maintenance

By: Travis_Bard

Homeowners who are looking to improve the functionality of their windows are likely to come into contact with the phrase frosted window film, but what is frosted window film and how can it be used within a property? To help you make an informed decision on whether frosted window film is the right option for you and your property we have compiled the article below to explain what it actually is, how it can be used within commercial and residential properties and even how long you should be expecting it to last.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 23, 2021

Powell Sent Gold Above $1,800 – But Only for a Short While / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Finally, Powell admitted higher inflation risks and gold jumped above $1,800. Before anyone noticed, however, it plummeted below the key level again.

Who are you, Mr. Powell: a reptilian or a human? A dove or a hawk? Since we all know the answer to the first question, let’s focus on the second one. Markets decided that Powell’s last press conference was rather dovish, but a careful reading doesn’t support this view. The main dovish signal was Powell’s emphasis that quantitative easing tapering and interest rate hikes are separate issues, as the tightening cycle criteria are stricter. So, the first rate hike may not come immediately after the end of tapering, which is scheduled for mid-March.

Even if they are separate, we shouldn’t expect a long break between the end of quantitative easing and the first rate hike. This gap will definitely be shorter than in 2014-2015. In the last tightening cycle, the Fed ended asset purchases in October 2014, while the first increase in the federal funds rate occurred in December 2015. Powell himself, however, pointed out that the economy is much stronger, while inflation is much higher, so a long separation before interest rate hikes is not likely:
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 23, 2021

Stock Market Santa Rally Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is still being added – the real wildcard moving the markets, is corona these days. Credit markets are in the early stages of heralding risk-on appetite as returning. As stated yesterday when mentioning my 2022 outlook:

(…) Fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure.

Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar?

The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. … Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already...

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InvestorEducation

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

FREETRADE - What Value FREE SHARES Can You Expect to Get When Signing Up? AMD, Apple, Microsoft? UK / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FREE TRADE is probably one of the best UK trading platforms for Stocks and shares ISA's, with it's commission free trading and fractional shares and low F/X fee of 0.45% AND they give a free share currently worth between £10 and £200 when signing up through a referral link. However what free share can people expect to get will it be an AMD? Apple, maybe a Microsoft as I show what my 7 FREE shares were that I got via referring others to FREE TRADE, so this is a good realistic expectation of what one is likely to get from FREE TRADE.

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Companies

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

TSMC and Microsoft AI Tech Stocks Analysis / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TSMC $117

PE 29.9, has been stuck in a tight trading range for virtually the whole of 2021 at between $125 and $108. Therefore I am raising the buying level to an achievable $109.5.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Silver: Strong and Weak at Once. How Is That Even Possible? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold is barely crawling up, while silver is boldly climbing the market ladder. When will its rungs turn slippery, causing the precious metal to fall?

Yesterday’s session was particularly uneventful in the case of the precious metals market, as crude oil and the general stock market stole the spotlight.

Consequently, today’s analysis will focus on what’s happening in pre-market trading, as that’s what appears to be more important.

At the moment of writing these words, gold is up very modestly – less than 0.2%.
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Commodities

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Remembering Wharton: Detecting When the Fed Turns 'For or Against You' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger remembers lessons learned years ago from a three-year course in "Stocks and Bonds 101," and how those principles still apply today.

In 1983, I was offered the opportunity to attend a three-year course in “Stocks and Bonds 101” courtesy of the Securities Industry Association. With little or no appreciation of what that course might actually do for me, I eagerly accepted because the main perk was a shingle for my office emblazoned with the title “The Wharton School” with my name just below it and signature-verified by a bunch of northeast blue bloods.

That three-year journey had a remarkable impact on my psyche. I met some of my earlier heroes like Martin Zweig, Jeremy Seigel, Julius Westheimer, and Gail Dudack, all of whom were really interesting personalities. But none were as impactive as a little-known trader called Robert Gordon. At first glance, I thought that he was the perfect image of a New Yorker – a cross between Robert DeNiro and John Travolta but, at maybe 5 feet 9 inches tall, at least a few inches taller. He was a disciple of the legendary Ivan Boesky (an arbitrageur who went to prison for insider trading in 1987), known for his understanding and skill in the art of taking advantage in inefficiencies in securities pricing.

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Currencies

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Euro: Look at This Head & Shoulders Chart Formation / Currencies / Euro

By: EWI

Learn about the "head and shoulders" measuring formula

You are probably familiar with the classic "head and shoulders" chart pattern.

But, in case you need a refresher, here's a brief description of a head and shoulders top:

The high of an initial upward move is the left shoulder. After a decline, another upward move takes prices to a higher high, or the head. A second decline follows the head. A third rally then takes prices to a peak below the high of the head, and becomes the right shoulder. The left and right shoulders are often similar in duration and extent. A trendline connecting the two lows is called the neckline. When prices penetrate the neckline, a change of trend is believed to have occurred.

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Companies

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist

  • China housing market in distress - CHECK
  • China's economy slowing - CHECK
  • US Economy slowing - CHECK
  • Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
  • Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
  • Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
  • REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
  • STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
  • FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
  • IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!

So yes, Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to brew in the background and will likely come knocking on many investor portfolio door's during 2022 so don't be so eager to FOMO into stocks today to later wish one had missed out on the preceding 6-8 months of price action by Mid 2022. Where whatever one buys and holds today needs to factor in a potential for lower lows than what we saw in October and for some a lot lower lows than that! If one is happy with that then continue to FOMO all the way to new all time highs, for the time being.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Good Luck Trying To Understand This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

During the last two weeks, I had the pleasure of traveling with my wife, Sharise, as we hosted our members on a cruise through the Caribbean. We then flew to New York, where we spent time with my father, whose health has been recently failing, and had the opportunity to see Andrea Bocelli in concert at Madison Square Garden.

If you have ever had the pleasure of hearing Mr. Bocelli sing, then you would know how his music can touch your soul. But, if you had the opportunity to learn his life story of perseverance, it would touch your soul that much more deeply.

In a loving note to his family, Mr. Bocelli penned the following words:

"never forget there is no such thing as happenstance. That's an illusion that lawless and arrogant men invented, so that they could sacrifice the truth of our world to their laws of reason."

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

US Dollar‘s Stock Market Warning Signal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure.

Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar?

The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. Corona response is another uncertainty, and given the APT performance, the odds of seeing economic activity (just at a time when supply chains would need to keep working off prior setbacks) restricted, have increased. Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already...

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Economics

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Inflation Torpedoes Biden Agenda – Will It Next Wreck Financial Markets? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

President Joe Biden’s so-called “Build Back Better” agenda was dealt a likely fatal blow on Sunday. Moderate Democrat Joe Manchin announced that he would oppose his party’s massive $2 trillion spending bill.

That effectively kills it in its current form.

Chief among Senator Manchin’s reasons for opposing the Biden administration’s far-reaching spending scheme is inflation.

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Companies

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

How Is the Financial Services Industry Changing? / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: Submissions

The financial services industry operates in a rapidly changing world, but one it can help shape. Banking, insurance, capital markets, commercial real estate, investment management – 2022 represents a pivotal opportunity for all these businesses to create their own future.

There needs to be a lot of focus on digital transformation and ESG initiatives across the industry, as well as investments in talent and in finding new ways to work together and boost efficiency. The time has come to rethink traditional bottom-line metrics and develop strategies that address both corporate and societal demands by placing purpose and trust at the forefront.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 20, 2021

Fed WAY behind Curve, Real Rates to Remain Deeply Negative / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

As the Federal Reserve prepares to taper its asset purchases, investors are preparing to adjust their portfolios.

Some are dumping gold. They could be making a big mistake.

Sentiment toward precious metals turned negative as prices fell over the past few weeks. Gold and silver markets continued to slide ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday.

However, they got a bounce following the Fed’s announcement that it would double the pace of tapering in 2022 and raise interest rates up to three times.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 20, 2021

Fading the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate.

I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday:

(…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.

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Commodities

Monday, December 20, 2021

Not Only Gold Lacks Energy – We All Do Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

First a pandemic, then inflation, and now an energy crisis. Should you buy gold when preparing for the winter?

Brace yourselves, winter is coming! And this time I’m deadly serious, as there is a global energy crisis. Not only does gold lack energy to fuel its rally right now, but people from all over the world lack it to fuel their operations and to heat their houses. Apparently, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t enough, so we also have to deal with inflation, supply bottlenecks, and the energy crisis. I guess there is nothing else to do now but wait for the frogs to start falling from the sky.
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Economics

Monday, December 20, 2021

Consumer Price Index (Less Food & Energy) Climbs To Highest Levels Since 2007-08 / Economics / Inflation

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I and Part II of this research article, I shared my research into the state of past and current US and global economy, Rest Of World Debt, DGP Implicit Price Deflator, Fed Funds Rates, and other technical data charts. The purpose of this article is to share with you two key components of the current US and global market trends; higher inflationary trends and a potentially trapped US Federal Reserve.

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

I will share more data/charts, and my proprietary US economy/Fed modeling systems results in Part III. My objective is to share my belief that the US Federal Reserve still has room to adjust interest rates (within reason) and how the US/global economy is starting to trend into the highest inflationary levels since 1975~1985. These levels could frighten traders/investors, but given the global economic constraints of the COVID lock-downs, I consider the current economic trends a symptom of the stimulus/solution – not necessarily an inherent economic trend. Allow me to explain my thinking in more detail.

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