Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Stock Market Is About To Crash - Part XXIII (This Time We Mean It) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the market began its historic rally off the March 2020 low, many were convinced that we had begun a bear market. In fact, I witnessed many people posting about short trades in which one cannot lose during that rally. The common perspective was that due to the highest Covid death rates being reported during the spring of 2020, economic shutdowns being seen all over the country, and record unemployment being reported, there was no way the market could continue to rally. It was simply impossible in most people’s minds.
Yet, continue to rally we did. Imagine if there was someone who warned you that we were going to 4000+ from the 2200SPX region, and who actually turned strongly bullish as we were hitting the lows. You would think that more and more people would be interested in what caused this person to maintain such a strong bullish bias in the face of utter despair.
It is uncanny. Avi and his team are working their ass off - and they make incredible calls. The constantly tell you to unlearn everything you learned before, and most people struggle with this. I still do. But the more I embrace their trading style the greener my account gets. I mean, when a guy tells you that we will see SPX 3200+ in a few weeks/months in the middle of a crisis like corona, it is very hard to let go of your shorts. I wish I did,.. Well, today, when Avi tells me what he thinks is most probably going to happen and how,... I listen. And it is a pleasure to watch my balance grow.
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Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Socialist Venezuela to Slash Six Zeros from Its Failed Currency / Currencies / HyperInflation
By: MoneyMetals
After getting off to a rough start to open the week, precious metals markets appear to be stabilizing.
Gold and silver prices got walloped in a futures selling raid ahead of Monday’s market open. Some leveraged speculators who faced margin calls had to sell long positions to raise cash.
This sort of forced selling is indicative of a possible washout bottom. But we will need to see a stronger snapback in the days ahead in order to confirm that.
Metals markets have responded poorly this summer to inflation data that continues to come in hot. Hard assets are taking a back seat to the stock market where rising prices have actually helped large companies post better than expected quarterly profits.
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Wednesday, August 18, 2021
When Gold Price Rises, Will Bitcoin Fall? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
What do the portents say? Well, we’ve been looking for connections between gold and bitcoin, and we see a chance to fatten the coffers. Read on.
But first, let’s talk about gold and the miners. Yesterday’s session provided us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish case in the precious metals sector for the short term.
The reason is that what happened was bearish in two ways:
- Nothing happened in gold
- Daily declines in mining stocks
Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Ethereum (ETH) Buying Levels - My Crypto Market Investing Strategy / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
1. BTC & ETH - My primary focus will be on building positions in BTC and ETH that will target approx 80% of my crypto portfolio, the balance spread between a number of Alt Coins such as Cardano and Pokadot.
2. Hold BUSD and USDC - In advance of buying crypto's I am funding my accounts (mainly Binance) with approx 50% of my target position size to as to capitalise on a high GBP exchange rate, converting into BUSD and USD whilst also correcting my initial error of holding USDT.
3. Place limit orders on approx half of the funds on account across the target crypto's in relatively nearby levels compared to the more distant levels i.e. BTC $21,500 and ETH $1400. Whilst my initial limit orders are far distant from the actual crypto prices as I am anticipating a decline in prices. However over time my orders will gravitate towards being nearer to the actual spot price i.e. over the next 6 months and where I could even be buy crypto at spot rather than with limit orders depending on what transpires over the remainder of this year due to various dynamics such as the Ravencoin halving due in Jan 2022 etc in advance of which I want to have a significant holding of raven coins.
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Tuesday, August 17, 2021
August Stock Market Flash Crashes Historical Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Weakening volume after an extended rally phase is fairly common. It represents a complacency in the markets where traders/investors are unwilling to chase an extended rally phase at higher prices. Often traders are waiting for some type of market correction or rotation to happen – which will allow them to deploy capital back into the markets at decreased price levels. Sometimes, this diminishing volume presents a unique scenario where traders shift their expectations away from traditional “buy the dip” thinking and that can sometimes create what is called a Flash Crash event.
Revisiting the August 2015 Flash Crash Event
In August 2015, a unique Flash Crash took place that prompted a -12.5% collapse in the S&P 500 in just four trading days – after a bout of selling pressure on a Wednesday/Thursday/Friday. The following Monday, the markets opened with a small lower opening gap, yet traders were unwilling to buy into the ASK and this created a very unique scenario where price exploration created a widening price void. As algos and computers continued to try to find active buyers in the marketplace, the ASK/BID spreads continued to widen as the liquidity trap had sprung.
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Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Fresh Stock Market Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given the hot inflation data. I‘m not saying red hot because the monthly CPI figure came in line with expectations, providing relief to the transitory camp. But last week‘s ISM services PMI and yesterday‘s PPI paint a very different story (to come).
My call about summer lull in bonds before these slowly but surely make their way higher (the 10-year to 1.80%), is turning out just as well as the inflation expectations‘ continued rebound. The cheap magic of Fed‘s June jawboning is losing its luster. Stocks steady and making marginally higher ATHs practically daily, uneven credit markets, gold holding up well following Monday‘s hit job, oil and copper trading in narrow ranges while the crypto uptrend goes on – fresh profits harvested across the markets yesterday, and new ones growing today.
The countdown to the Jackson Hole is on though, with the Fed practically having to do something – something in all likelihood face saving only as the record deficit spending gives it little to no maneuvering room.
Monday, August 16, 2021
US Bond Market Long-term Trend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The screeching that one hears from the likes of Michael "Big Short" Burry is that the US Bond market is about to collapse. We'll all I can see when looking at the long-term chart is that since the pandemic panic bond market spike of March 2020, bonds have been in a correction against it's primary bull trend, and that correction appears to have ENDED.
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Monday, August 16, 2021
Stock Market Strong Intermediate Reversal Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, August 16, 2021
The Trillion Dollar Health Trend Taking Over Wall Street / Companies / Health and Fitness
By: Submissions
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Monday, August 16, 2021
How Options Are Fueling The Markets / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the past week, we have seen the Nasdaq and the S&P reach all-time highs. Since the covid crash, we have seen some massive movement to the upside. I believe there are several factors driving these markets up.
First, let’s look at the covid crisis and how it played a role. As a result of the shutdowns, the FED took a really aggressive stance with its quantitative easing measures. Lots of money printing to pay for massive stimulus payouts. The worse news we hear historically is that the markets will react sharply to the downside.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Increasing Risks for Stock Market CRASH 2021 - AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Financial System Liquidity Alarm / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Market liquidity is draining from different vantage points
On Wednesday I made a post that showed the “metallic credit spread” (as coined by Bob Hoye) known as the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) flipped on its head (to Silver/Gold) to indicate a dangerous situation for the S&P 500, if past is prologue. Here is that post and here is the Tweet that followed…
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD Review, Crystal Disk, Atto Benchmarks, How Hot Does it Get? / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Corsair MP600 is a PCIE4.0 SSD drive with advertised read speeds of upto 4950 mb/s and write speeds of upto 4250 mm/s and in this video we benchmark a couple of these drives to see if real world use matches the sales pitch. Furthermore given the high access speeds it's good to know how hot these SSD drives get! As usually the hotter the drive the more likely it is to fail earlier, especially when SSD temps approach and pass 60c! So find out in our latest video of what to expect with MP600 SSD's
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Birthday Balloons and Amazon Surprise Gifts for 7 Year Old Birthday Girl / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: N_Walayat
It's Eliza's 7th Birthday soon and what is a requirement of all birthdays? Balloons, lots and lots of Balloons! And so Eliza begins the process of blowing up her own birthday balloons in advance of her birthday,
If you like Eliza's videos then consider sending her a surprise birthday present over Amazon, you can check out her birthday with list here - Eliza's Amazon Wish List. Nothing fancy or expensive but some of the items that she would like as a birthday gift, and of course we will feature any gifts received in a future video.
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Saturday, August 14, 2021
Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is part 4 of 5 of my extensive full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets, of what I expect to happen over the next 6 months in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets where Stable Coins such as USDT are what could be imminent catalysts for.
Part 1 Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021,
Part 2 Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis)
Part 3 Bitcoin, Crypto Market Black Swans from Google to Obsolescence
Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels
Topics covered in this analysis:
- Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
- Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
- Lessons Learned
- Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
- BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
- Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
- Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
- Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
- Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
- Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
- BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
- Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
- US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
- BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
- Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
- Bitcoin Trend Forecast
- Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
- Alternative Scenarios
- My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
- Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
- Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
- Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
- Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
- Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
- Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
- Crypto's 7 to 10
- Creating The Perfect Crypto
- How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
- CHIA SCAM COIN
- Binance vs Coinbase
- Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?
Saturday, August 14, 2021
Everything Peaked in 1980 – The Waning Effects Of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
EVERYTHING PEAKED IN 1980
Both gold and crude oil peaked at all-time highs in 1980. Those highs are still intact when the effects of inflation are accounted for. Below are the charts for both gold and crude oil…
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Saturday, August 14, 2021
Nonfarm Payrolls Crushed Gold Like a Sandcastle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The US economy added almost 1 million jobs in July, building solid ground for tapering. Meanwhile, the PMs’ sandy foundations crumbled spectacularly.Another blow to gold! July’s nonfarm payrolls came in strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 943,000 jobs last month, following 938,000 additions in June (after an upward revision). More than one-third of all gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, reflecting the economy’s reopening after the Great Lockdown.
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Saturday, August 14, 2021
U.S. Housing Market: Not "a Bubble This Time Around"? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Here's what usually coincides with a big decline in real estate pricesYou probably know that the U.S. housing market has been red hot.
A certified financial planner wrote a July 20 article for Kiplinger, mentioning the record price levels in many areas of the country, and then added a personal observation:
I witnessed the price rise first-hand. I recently returned from a family vacation in the North Carolina mountains, where many homes now sell for double or triple the price compared to just a couple of years ago.
Stories abound of buyers signing contracts on homes without even doing a walk through. Some real estate agents are advising buyers to forgo inspections, saying they will just slow the process.
Friday, August 13, 2021
Gold Miners: Celebration Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Another day, another decline in junior miners – and another increase in profits from short positions in them. Shouldn’t we expect a rebound though?
Well, no. The rebound already happened in late July and early August, and what we see now is the trend being resumed. Consequently, even if it wasn’t for all the long-term analogies to the 2012-2013 declines in gold and gold stocks (HUI Index), one should expect the current short-term decline to be significantly bigger than the counter-trend upswing which ended earlier this month. At this time, the move lower is just somewhat bigger than the preceding rally. Thus, it’s not excessive and can easily continue.
However, let’s keep in mind that periods of very high volatility usually need to be followed by periods of relatively low volatility. That’s when investors verify if the “new reality” – the price levels after the decline – are justified or not. If the market votes “no”, we get huge rebounds and breakdowns’ invalidations. So far this week, the markets have been voting “yes”.