Friday, June 03, 2022
FREE Japanese Candlesticks Trading Course / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Hi reader,
One of the best ways to get an edge in trading is to hand-pick a few select tools for your arsenal.
Japanese Candlesticks are one such tool. In skilled hands, they can really show you the trend and alert you to trend reversals.
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Friday, June 03, 2022
What to Make of the Stock Market’s Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"“For certain, there will be countertrend rallies"
The stock market selloff from March into the May low was comprised of eight straight weeks of decline in the Dow Industrials.
This was historic. The Dow Industrials have been around for 126 years and this was only the second time that the senior index suffered a decline for eight consecutive weeks. The other time was in 1923 -- also March into May.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual net additional dwellings which includes completed new builds.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Where Is Gold Price Going From Here? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After briefly reaching highs above $2000, Gold has fallen to $1785 (-14%) following the deep selling in the US major indexes throughout most of April & May 2022.
Interpretation Of The Current Consolidation In Gold
My team and I see the recent lows in Gold as similar to the April/May 2009 consolidation after the Global Financial Crisis. Also similar to the January 2013 consolidation before an extended -34% price decline took place – ending in December 2015.
The primary difference between now and then is that the US Federal Reserve is currently initiating a new round of Quantitative Tightening (QT), raising rates, while battling Inflation. In both the previous examples, the US Federal Reserve was moving aggressively into Quantitative Easing, attempting to aid in the recovery of the US & the global economy.
It seems to me, that the underlying factors driving the price of Gold have drastically changed. All it would take for Gold to break into a new trend, up or down, would be to see some new catalyst or contagion event come to life.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Bubble Trouble / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
As month five of this bear market comes to an end, expert Michael Ballanger goes over some bear market stories that left him with battle scars and provides some insight on what to expect in the months ahead.
Month five of the Great 2022-202? Bear Market is almost complete so I thought you all might wish to hear a few “war stories” from past bear markets, some of which I endured while none of which I even vaguely enjoyed. First, I offer the MJB “primer”…
“The key to long-term profits on Wall Street is not making big killings; it’s not getting killed.”
—Daniel Turov
At the bottom of bear markets (or at the start of bull markets), stocks are like moored boats at low tide, resting on the sand desperately in need of the resurgent surf.
As markets turn, it is analogous to the tide roaring in and when it does, it lifts all boats, big and small, and it doesn’t care whether a vessel is leaking or whether it is tight. Warren Buffett coined a phrase that perfectly describes how bear markets expose flawed business models in heavily-pumped companies when he said, “Bear markets are like the tide going out; you soon learn who is swimming without trunks.”
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Stock Market Hits Stall Speed Before Running / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 could still be building a bull flag on the daily chart, followed by an upswing tomorrow on non-farm payrolls. Who knows what kinds of adjustments would show that the real economy isn‘t decelerating all that badly? Markets might even conclude the contraction bullet would be avoided, and that the Fed won‘t need to go all in against inflation consequences be damned. Wrong, because if you look at Treasuries, the pressure on the Fed to raise (and dramatically so), is on – the dollar is turning up already on the prospect of higher yields. CPI inflation might have (temporarily) peaked, but inflation expectations (as measured by both the bond market and the respective ETF) haven‘t yet.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
How the NHS Is Forcing Patients to Go Private Due to Consultants with Conflict of Interest / Politics / NHS
By: N_Walayat
Like most religions there is myth and there is reality and so it is with Britain's NHS religion, at the heart of which lies the contracted in consultant's structure who tend to have half a leg in the NHS and half a leg in the private sector resulting in a conflict of interest that acts to funnel patients into the private sector as this example of what to expect at an NHS hospital when one presents themselves for competent treatment that tends to be wholly lacking at expect at the Northern General Hospitals' Orthopedics Fractures and Ankles clinic where even minor operations such as a suspected ruptured Achilles tendon tend to be met with the procedure for kicking the can down the road where consultants tend to IGNORE the patient whilst conversing with the GP practice by letter.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2022
Gold Fakeout Instead of Breakout: Is the Gold Miners’ Crash Coming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Some analogies in the gold market that may be a hint for investors can be seen right now. If there's a 2008 rerun, what could that mean in the near term?
The precious metals market declined yesterday, and while the move is still small, it’s nice to see that our short positions in juniors are already profitable.
Something quite interesting happened in their price movement at the beginning of yesterday’s session, and that’s what I’d like to start with today.
Wednesday, June 01, 2022
Stock Market Risk-on Run / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
S&P 500 didn‘t waver much even though credit markets did – the risk-on sentiment in stocks goes on even when faced with a dollar upswing (which was sold into). The defensive slant to the S&P 500 gains is evident as tech did better than value – and even energy stocks got hurt. This is short-term concerning for the oil bulls, but it would be premature to close the profitable longs just yet (even if short-term challenges would remain).
Precious metals are acting weak – the daily rise in yields and the dollar hurts. Second half of the year would be the best time for gold and silver as the focus shifts from (temporarily peaking) inflation to the inevitability of backing off tightening (turning accommodative again even) – till then, I‘m looking for lean weeks ahead, and that goes for copper as well. Crude oil remains supported by geopolitics, CRB Index continues trending nicely higher, and the threat of recession isn‘t breaking them.Notably, the market pressure on the Fed to raise, has slowed to a standstill in May – and that would support real assets going forward in the mid-term increasingly more.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 1 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 1 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast.
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
UK Population Growth Trend Forecast to 2030 Current State / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:
2nd August 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030
The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022
How to Beat the Cost of Living Crisis By Growing Your Own Tomatoes at Home (Beefeater) / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: Eliza_Walayat
The cost of living crisis has sent food prices soaring in the supermarkets, for instance just ONE beefeater tomatoes costs 75 pence! However these can be easily grown at home from seed which one can get from beefeater tomatoes. Here Eliza shows how it is literally child's play to get started by growing your own tomatoes and other vegetables at home to beat the cost of living crisis.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022
Stock Market Game Plan Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 did fine on Friday as well, and the long streak of weeks in red, is over (for now). The rally would continue for quite a while longer – after all, we indeed got the sign inflation made its peak with the May data. Also right on schedule, the top in yields came – coupled with some retail earnings, personal income and PCE data, the stock market rally could proceed. And it has further to go, quite further to go – before peaking and rolling over to fresh lows. Yes, I don‘t think we‘re looking at a fresh uptrend, there is still much stress (to be reflected in stock prices) in the consumer arena.
For now, the key question is the degree to which VIX calms down – would it be able to keep below 23-24 to extend the shelf life of this rally? And for how long would the lull in volatility last? I think the answer is a few short weeks, before it becomes obvious that the fundamentals haven‘t changed. The consumer remains in poor shape, inflation would remain stubbornly high (even as it had indeed peaked), and the credit default swaps for quite a few (consumer sensitive) companies are rising relentlessly, which isn‘t yet reflected in underlying stock prices. I‘m talking financials too – this broad stock market rally has more than a couple of percent higher to go before the weight pulls it back down, and earnings estimates get downgraded again.
In short, this is a false dawn, but it would feel like a fresh dawn. Counterintuitively, it would be accompanied by retreating yields – regardless of the persistent inflation. Remember also my words that the Fed won‘t be able to engineer a soft landing this time, I‘m not counting on that – the conditions are so much different macroeconomically now than they were in the mid-1990s, which was the last time they could pull it off. Just ask yourself how much slack in the job market is there, what about the peace dividend now and prospects for the brighter aspects of globalization. No, I‘m not buying that – this reprieve would give way to a fresh stock market downleg, manufacturing growth would crawl to a standstill, and that‘s when the central bank would be forced to back off tightening.
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
Food, a Global Crisis – How bad is it going to get? / Commodities / Food Crisis
By: Richard_Mills
A comparison of this year’s grocery bills to last year’s yields a simple yet terrifying conclusion: food prices are rising at a rate beyond anyone’s imagination.
The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index, which tracks the price movements of the most commonly traded and consumed food crops, recently reached its highest on record.
Most point to the exorbitant prices, like with many other commodities (i.e. oil), to the ongoing war in Europe, which has caused major disruptions to the global supply chain. Indeed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year triggered a series of events that blocked off some of the region’s supply routes, taking away a significant portion of the world’s food supply. The result? every category of food we consume — wheat, meat, dairy products, etc. — got more expensive.
FAO economists estimate that Russia and Ukraine together provided around 30% of the global wheat supply and 20% of maize exports over the past three years, representing a significant chunk of the global food supply. It’s been estimated that nearly 25 million tonnes of grain alone have been eliminated from the supply chain since Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022
How Inflation is Inflating Your Building Insurance Bills / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
As expert and experienced insurer Deacon Insurance admits, flat insurance policies can be quite complicated and it’s a greatly different situation to that involved in insuring the average, standard property. The numerous issues around it, and many factors influencing it, are wide and varied, while the cost of it is increasing all the time. This might be old news to you, but it’s worth looking into to see if you can save yourself some pennies.
So, why the sudden increase in insurance premiums, especially for those who own the lease for a block of flats?
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022
The growing need for sustainable packaging amidst an emerging energy & climate crisеs / Companies / Climate Change
By: Sumeet_Manhas
In a fast-paced world where environmental problems, energy, and climate crisеs are taking a toll, businesses are slowly starting to recognize what impact they have and clients are starting to demand a change. In an effort to become more environmentally-friendly and energy-conscious, companies from all industries are starting to implement new practices and invest in sustainable packaging solutions.
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
What is the Crackup Boom? / Economics / Crack Up BOOM
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crackup boom as theorised by :Ludwig von Mises in the 1920's in the face of Austrian hyperinflation is when the masses wake up to the inflation game the government and the central bank have been playing, that of printing money on an epic scale that devalues the value of fiat currency resulting in ever higher price rise in the shops coupled with increasing lack of supply as prices rise due to producers / sellers inclined to slowdown the process of delivery for higher future prices in response to which the government prints even more money to placate the masses in response to demands the government do something to address the "cost of living crisis".
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
Stock and Bond Markets Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief
Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish.
Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706:
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
Global Financial Elite in Davos Lust for New Powers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As global elites met in Davos this week to discuss their latest plans for a Great Reset, ordinary investors are hoping for a great rebound in their portfolios.
The stock market did finally bounce after suffering several consecutive weeks of losses. Whether it’s a just a short-lived relief rally or the start of something bigger remains to be seen.
The U.S. Dollar Index may also be gearing up for a run, but to the downside. After moving higher against foreign currencies for most the year, the dollar is now declining for a second consecutive week.
Dollar weakness helped support a modest rise in gold and silver prices.
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
Managing Emotions – How FOMO Affects Your Trading And Your Life / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Managing emotions you say? Often we hear that we are supposed to trade without emotion as if we’re robots. That’s a big fat myth.
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs….”
From “If,” by Rudyard Kipling
We’re in a challenging market. Here are some thoughts on how to not just survive but thrive as we work through a significant peaking phase of the economic and market cycles.
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