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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam Seat Won, Race on to Save Lib Dem Marginal's / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, who apparently where the opinion pollsters are concerned is at risk of losing his Sheffield Hallam seat to Labours Oliver Coppard, said goodbye to the good folks of Sheffield Hallam with a thank you note sent to most if not all residents and began his 36 hour 1000 mile dash on the Lib Dem battle bus across the UK to bolster the vote in more than a dozen Lib Dem marginal constituencies.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Conservatives Nightmare of Labour - Lib Dem Minority Government - Election Forecast 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With just 2 days to go until Britain goes to the polls the desperation is evident on the faces of the politicians as the ferociously campaign for a handful more of seats that could enough to form the next government as one thing the opinion polls agree upon is that no major party will win an outright majority.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, May 04, 2015

Nate Silver UK General Election Forecast 2015 as Wrong as 2010? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Last weeks BBC Panorama programme featured Nate Silver who apparently is famous for forecasting the outcome of the 2012 US election, so with much press hype is expected to accurately forecast results for the May 7th UK General election. The BBC Panorama programme after near 30 minutes of mind numbingly boring footage of basically a caravan driving around the UK, finally has Nate Silver state his forecast conclusion that put the Conservatives on 283 seats, Labour 270, SNP 48, Lib Dems 24 and UKIP on just 1 seat.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 03, 2015

UK Election 2015 Forecast - The Most Probable Outcome is... / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britain's voters go to the polls in just a few days time with the opinion polls suggesting no major party will come even close to winning a majority that has prompted a daily flood of bribes from politicians from housing market subsidies, to tax cutting promises, to spending bonanzas on public services, to promises to cut the deficit, contradictory promises that just cannot become manifest which most voters well understand and why there has been so little shift in the opinion polls during the past two months of intense campaigning as both Labour and Conservative even with Lib Dem support remain well short of an overall majority.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, May 01, 2015

UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There remain just 6 days until the voters of Britain go to the polls with the nations share of the vote spread widely amongst Britain's 6 significant political parties that has prompted a daily flood of bribes from politicians from housing market subsidies to tax cutting promises to spending bonanzas on public services, where virtually 70% of that which is being promised just cannot happen because politicians promises to increase spending, cut taxes AND cut the deficit are pure smoke and mirrors, which most voters well understand and why there has been so little shift in the opinion polls following two months of intense campaigning and thus unlikely to shift in the remaining few days becasue voters understand that probability favours another minority led coalition government of sorts which means that at least 1/3rd of the manifestos never mind the more recent promises will be jettisoned with many excuses ready for why.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Labour Leads in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat, Latest Ashcroft Opinion Poll / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The latest Lord Ashcroft opinion poll for Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency shows that Labour has managed to maintain a slender lead over the Lib Dem Leader as Nick Clegg fights a ferocious battle to prevent losing his seat to the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard, which if lost would scupper any hopes for a continuation of the Tory led Coalition as without Nick Clegg the left of centre Lib Dems with veer towards the Labour party even if it would result in messy outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Why Labour Cannot Win Sheffield Hallam and other Lib-Dem / Conservative Key Marginal Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pollsters and political pundits paint a picture of Labour standing a good chance of winning Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat that illustrates the national battle that Labour is engaged in against the Lib-Dems and Conservatives in key marginal seats across England which means that despite losing as many as 40 of their 41 Scottish MP's to the SNP, Labour still hopes to have won enough seats in England and Wales to form a minority government under the strings of the SNP.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, April 27, 2015

Conservatives Start to Pull Away from Labour in Opinion Polls, But is it too Late? Election Forecast 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With just 10 days left to go the pace of campaigning is intensifying with economic austerity abandoned in favour of a literal flood of daily voter bribes such as Labours Stamp duty bribe of upto £5k for first time buyers, and attempting to appeal to the 5 million private renters by offering 3 year rent controls. Whilst the Conservatives are offering to take 3 million on minimum wage out of tax altogether, though not mentioning if that includes national insurance as well. Meanwhile the SNP play the wolf in sheep's clothing game with front woman Nicola Sturgeon offering conciliatory messages as she bakes cakes, all the whilst hiding the truth that she is not even standing for parliament instead it will be Alex Salmond who will be calling the shots over a weak Labour minority government. That leaves the Lib Dem's offering to mellow both Labour and Conservative extremes as they ride around in their chauffeur driven limousines.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, April 27, 2015

Sheffield School Places Election Crisis - Affluent Schools Demand Increase in Funding / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The latest saga in Sheffield's school places crisis is the ganging together of Sheffield's affluent area state schools to demand an increase in funding per pupil so as to better match the amount received per pupil funding for Sheffield's less affluent area schools that in a letter Head teachers of the affluent schools typically estimate as £3,477 against as high as £5,000 per pupils for less affluent area schools.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, April 27, 2015

Labour Bribes Voters With Housing Market Stamp Duty Cut and Rent Controls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With both Labour and the Conservatives within 10 seats of one another in the opinion polls (273-283) the voter bribes from each are flowing like milk and honey as both parties have temporarily jettisoned economic austerity cuts in favour of housing market pumping election promises that they will in large part not be able to keep without rampant debt printing.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015, School Places Crisis, Can Nick Clegg Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg's parliamentary seat is situated in Sheffield's leafy affluent Hallam constituency in the south west of the city that whilst being part of a Labour heartland city, in reality could just as easily be transported to any affluent area of the South East, as for instance a typical 4 bedroom detached property would tend to start at £400,000 and could easily range upto twice that amount, prices which tends to surprise many relocating from the South East to this area of Sheffield.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

SNP Publish England's Suicide Note as Pollsters Still Forecast Labour-SNP Election Disaster / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Scottish Nationalists published their "Stronger for Scotland" on the backs of a Weaker England Manifesto that laid out how a defacto SNP dictatorship over England would operate by effectively sucking the financial blood out of a weak Labour minority English government before achieving Independence, especially given the fact that Scotland dodged a bullet last September for if they had voted for Independence then given the subsequent oil price crash, Scotland today would be just as bankrupt as Greece is.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, April 18, 2015

UK Housing Crisis, Immigration, Population Growth, Election Forecast 2015 - Video / ElectionOracle / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britains housing crisis is one of limited new build supply that consistently fails to keep pace with new demand that typically tends to average twice the rate of supply resulting in an worsening housing crisis each year which explains why academic theories of UK house prices being in a bubble that is always imminently destined to burst persistently fails to materialise. Instead the reality is one of house prices relentlessly grinding ever higher with an ever escalating house prices to earnings ratio that on an average stands at over 7X earnings, and far beyond that of virtually every other western nation and in some parts of the UK is greater than 25X earnings.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Conservatives Bribe Labour Voters by Extending Right to Buy to Housing Association Tenants / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The central piece of the Conservative manifesto to be launched today will be the announcement to extend the near 35 year right to buy your council house scheme (over 2 million sold) to 1.3 million housing association tenants so that they too may buy their homes at deep discounts of as much as 70% / £102,700 per property in London and £77k for the rest of the UK. The starting discount for housing association homes after 3 years of tenancy will be 35%, rising by 1% per year, and 50% for flats rising by 2% per year. Though I don't see how this would exactly work because the Conservatives are proposing to sell homes they do not own, so may face stiff resistance from housing associations.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, April 13, 2015

Tory Attack on Ed Milliband Backfires as Labour Takes Opinion Polls Lead / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Last weeks decision to go on the personal offensive against Ed Miliband may have seemed like a good idea at the time amongst Conservative party strategists but the personal attacks suggesting that Ed Miliband would stab the UK in the back just as he did to his own brother David by being prepared to scrap Trident in exchange for SNP post election support was initiated by Tory Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, a statement that senior Conservatives from the Prime Minister down refused to criticise.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Opinion Polls Forecast Labour SNP LibDem Extreme Hung Parliament Government - Election 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Six days on from the 7 leaders debate and the opinion polls have settled to suggest the worst possible outcome, one of an extreme hung parliament where it is not just that any single party will be unable to form the next government but that neither party will be able to form a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats which means the only workable solution would be a Labour SNP Alliance, that could possibly also include the Liberal Democrats or perhaps Plaid Cymru's 3-6 MP's could be enough to bridge the gap to the 326 seat majority magic number.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Blair Warns On BREXIT - 'Chaos' If UK Leaves EU / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: GoldCore

- Ex-Prime Minister warns uncertainty would hit UK economy and cause ‘chaos’
- ‘BREXIT’ would cause the “most intense period of instability” since WW2
- Seeks to portray Tory policy as disingenuous and cynically putting economy at risk
- Uncertainty caused would have negative consequences for British economy and sterling

Tony Blair has entered into the British election campaign debate in support of David Miliband on the issue of what he regards as the Tories reckless attitude to Europe and the potential ‘BREXIT’.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, April 06, 2015

SNP Offers Labour Deadly Death Embrace Alliance, Holding England to Ransom, Destroy UK From Within / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The SNP having failed at the ballot box now seek to breakup the United Kingdom by going back on their earlier pledge of barely a few weeks ago of not doing a formal deal with a minority Labour government, who instead now are seeking to enter into a deadly death embrace (alliance) with Labour so as to subvert democracy by preventing the probable largest party from forming a government. All as a means to an end of literally bankrupting the UK over the next few years through out of control spending and borrowing to perhaps at least double the current £9 billion annual subsidy from England as well as lumbering the England with at least £130billion of Scottish debt, before the holyrood fanatics finally declare Scotland Independant that I have warned the consequences of for well over a year that would literally sow the seeds for the Balkanisation of Britain (04 Sep 2014 - Scottish Independence Opens Pandora's Box of Disintegration, Balkanisation of Britain ).

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Labour Economic Collapse vs Coalition Recovery - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Video / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The last ONS GDP statistics release before election day revised UK economic growth higher for 2014 to 2.8% from the previous estimate of 2.6%, against 1.7% for 2013. The UK economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2006 and leads the G7 countries prompting George Osborne to tweet “GDP revised upwards from 2.6% to 2.8% for 2014. Confirms UK as clearly fastest growing major advanced economy.” Whilst Ed Balls responded “This is the slowest recovery for 100 years and the Tories have failed to deliver the sustained rises in living standards they promised.” Though conveniently forgetting that the economy was recovering from the last Labour governments economic collapse.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, April 03, 2015

Leaders Debate Election 2015 - Nick Clegg Demands Ed Miliband Apologises for Labour Economic Crash / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

An irritated Nick Clegg at Ed Miliband's pious statements on Lib Dem broken promises surrounding tuition fees, demands that Ed Miliband apologies for Labours economic crash.

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