Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Is US Economy at the Cusp of the Next Recession? or Maybe Worse? / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Plunger

Part II takes a look at the macro economic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- its not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade.

“When the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked”– Warren Buffet

“This time around everything gets revealed in the next recession”-Plunger

In the next recession those leaning the wrong way… the levered players, will be forced to heave out their non-productive assets at fire sale prices. Commodity producers with entrenched costs will have to increase production as lower prices beget even lower prices since insufficient cash flows can only be recovered through higher volume production.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Stock Market Lindsay Long Term Intervals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

The March 20 Market Update showed our Long Term interval forecast – both 15 and 12 year intervals. As we are now seeing the biggest pullback in the Dow since last autumn we have to assume that the 15yr interval is exerting its influence and the decline won’t end until the 12yr interval (May-November, 2017) takes over.

Monday, April 17, 2017

US Housing Market Mortgage Delinquency Rates Increase & 3X ETFs / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Delinquency rates in Single Family Residential Mortgages and other Consumer Loans began to climb through the later half of 2016 and early 2017.  The timing of this delinquency rate increase coincided almost identically with the Fed increases in their Funds Rate.  Additionally, commercial loan origination stalled for the first time since 2008-2011 (prior to that was a stall in 2000).

As you’ve been likely been following our daily video market analysis, you’ll know that we believe the market is still in a bullish trend and that we expect this upward price action to continue for a while.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.

The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.

Monday, April 17, 2017

‘Ruralization’ and ‘Agriculturization’: The Last Option for Human Survival and Growth... / Politics / Social Issues

By: Dr_R_M_Mathew

... in the Age of Economic Crises and Terrorism

From the Myth of Growth and Abundance, the Humanity has entered into the Reality of Poverty and Survival, besides the Prolonged Economic Crisis for the destabilization of the rural economies, drastic decline of farm or food production and shrinking global economy as the byproducts of urbanization and aggressive industrialization.  Deflating drinking and irrigation water supply due to changes in seasons and the weather, rising atmospheric heat or cold resulting in floods, draughts and wild fire and above all encroachments of fertile farm lands for industrialization and urbanization have become more evident.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Emerging Markets Very Bullish, Close To Major Breakout / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: InvestingHaven

Emerging markets look increasingly bullish with each passing day. It was only three weeks ago that emerging markets were bullish enough to call for an official breakout. With that, our emerging markets forecast for 2017 proves to be accurate, as well as our call that emerging markets would become the investment of 2017.

As said, emerging markets look more bullish with the day. And they are only 6 percent away from a major event: a secular breakout. If that materializes, it would be MAJOR news, and, guess what, financial media will not be talking about it!

Monday, April 17, 2017

Turkey's President Wins Sweeping Powers in Cliffhanger Vote / Politics / Turkey

By: STRATFOR

In an apparent cliffhanger victory, with challenges from the opposition still outstanding, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President (and now party leader) Recep Tayyip Erdogan are claiming a hairline victory in a decisive referendum that will greatly empower the presidency. Some 48 million of 55 million eligible voters cast ballots on a raft of 18 constitutional amendments that will fundamentally alter the Turkish government, taking effect in the next scheduled election in 2019. With nearly all votes counted, the "Yes" vote garnered 51.34 percent of the vote with the "No" vote coming in close behind with 48.66 percent of the vote, according to state-run Anadolu Agency.

Monday, April 17, 2017

How Investors Can Buy Gold At A 6% Discount Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : Since the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 13% while the S&P 500 is up 11%. One victim of the move into risk assets was gold, which plunged over 13% in the weeks following the election.

Although gold prices have since recovered some of their losses, the yellow metal’s drop has created a buying opportunity for those wanting to add bullion to their portfolios.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Trump US North Korea First Strike Smoke and Mirrors, China is the Real War Target! / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There is growing speculation in the mainstream media and BlogosFear that the Trump regime following blasting of an mostly empty Syrian air-field with 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles and then dropping a MOAB on caves in Afghanistan is next set to launch a pre-emptive first strike against the North Korean rouge state's nuclear and missile infrastructure before it manages to achieve its objective of being able to put nukes onto missiles.

Monday, April 17, 2017

... / Companies / Cannabis

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday, April 17, 2017

Canada Mother of All Housing Bubbles - Buy Gold in a Hurry! / Housing-Market / Canada

By: HAA

By Shannara Johnson : For centuries, physical gold has served as an effective crisis hedge. When economies take a severe downturn and paper money gets devalued, a stash of gold can save you from losing your shirt.

Our friendly neighbors to the north would do well to remember that wisdom—because they’ve been experiencing the mother of all housing bubbles.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Stock Market, Gold Miners GDX Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Brad_Gudgeon

We entered into a Mercury Retrograde period on April 9, which I have said before is like trading in the Bermuda Triangle, difficult at best! Typically, this usually portends a turn in the precious metals market within about 2-4 trading days. As far as the stock market is concerned, the normal indicators tend not to work as well.

Monday, April 17, 2017

History of the Post WWII Crude Oil Price From a Technical Perspective / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger's "Trade of the Year". This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today's economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.

To acquire a broader view of oils path over the past century I highly recommend the following resources on the oil market. Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is an in-depth review of the history of oil up to the First Gulf war. It is indispensable in understanding the growth of the industry. Other books provide entertaining color to the industry by reviewing the swashbuckling nature of the early players who formed the industry as independents. I recommend "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough and JP Getty's autobiography "The Way I See It". Finally, David Stockman's "The Great Deformation" is essential reading as it corrects all the false economic narratives of the past which have been masquerading as truth.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Stock Market Bounce Coming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.

SPX Intermediate trend: The correction from 2400 continues,

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Stocks Are Completely Mis-pricing the Risk of a Another Debt Ceiling Screw Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Graham_Summers

While everyone continues to focus on Trump and his policies, a much larger issue looms.

That issue is the US debt ceiling.

The US Government hit its debt ceiling on March 16, 2017. The Government employed “extraordinary measures” to keep the Government open. At that time, Congress had a little over three weeks to deal with this issue.

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Korean Peninsula Brinksmanship / Politics / WW3

By: Stephen_Lendman

For a day at least, Washington and Pyongyang stepped back from the brink.

The DPRK refrained from conducting an expected sixth nuclear test, likely postponed, not cancelled.

Trump showed restraint by not belligerently reining on North Korea’s Day of the Sun commemorative parade, honoring its founder Kim Il-sung’s 105th birthday.

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Walkers Crisps £5 to £28k Instant Pay Packet Win! / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

Walkers Crisps have just started a new promotion where you can instantly win between a £5 and £28,000 pay packet. In total there are £2 million's up for grabs! The promotion runs until the 3rd of June. So find out what the promotion is all about as we dashed to the supermarket for our first batch of 10 multi-packs to see if we can win instant cash! And lets hope that ALL of the £2 million will be won unlike the Spell and Go fiasco of 2016 when only about 4% of advertised prizes were actually awarded.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Stock Market Does NOT Trust Tesco's Results Recovery Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The mainstream media has been busy painting a rosy picture of how Tesco, Britain's supermarket giant is bouncing back in its latest results, with sales up for the first time in 7 years and the SFO false accounting scandal behind it.

Tesco reports first sales growth in 7 years - FT 12th April

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Syria: Where the Rubber Meets the Road / Politics / Syria

By: Mike_Whitney

You don’t have to be a genius to figure out that the case against Syrian President Bashar al Assad is extremely weak. The chemical weapons attack in Khan Shaykhun, has produced no smoking gun,  no damning evidence, in fact, no evidence at all. Similar to the Russia hacking fiasco, (not a shred of evidence so far)  the western media and the entire political class has made the case for attacking a sovereign country on the thin gruel of a few videos of an incident that took place in a location that is currently under the control of militant groups connected to al Qaida. That’s pretty shaky grounds for a conviction, don’t you think?