Sunday, May 05, 2019
Night King is NOT DEAD! But it's Valar Morghulis for Game of Thrones Facebook Groups / Personal_Finance / Social Media
By: N_Walayat
An unknown HBO TV shows based books written by a fantast author no one had never heard of (RR Martin) that barely managed to survive past its pilot who HBO were not happy with demanding several cast changes and a re shooting of the whole pilot!
to its 2nd season has since stormed the world by it's 8th and final season. Where everyone has jumped on board the Game of Thrones bandwagon in the countdown to the shows final 3 episodes, but then what? Valar Morghulis, all tv shows must die!
Yes, there is take of prequels and spin offs but based on what happened to previous popular TV shows then Season 8 for most will be the end of Game of Thrones as it concludes its 8 season arc.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
These record US stock-market levels are very dangerous, riddled with extreme levels of euphoria and complacency. Largely thanks to the Fed, traders are convinced stocks can rally indefinitely. But stock prices are very expensive relative to underlying corporate earnings, with valuations back up near bubble levels. These are classic topping signs, with profits growth stalling and the Fed out of easy dovish ammunition.
Stock markets are forever cyclical, meandering in an endless series of bulls and bears. The latter phase of these cycles is inevitable, like winter following summer. Traders grow too excited in bull markets, and bid up stock prices far higher than their fundamentals support. Subsequent bear markets are necessary to eradicate unsustainable valuation excesses, forcing stock prices sideways to lower until profits catch up.
This latest bull market grew into a raging monster largely fueled by extreme Fed easing. At its latest all-time record peak hit just this week, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) has soared 335.4% higher over 10.1 years! That makes for the second-biggest and first-longest bull in US history, only possible because it gorged on $3625b of quantitative-easing money printing by the Fed over 6.7 years.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Will Yuan Replace US Dollar and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“The US dollar will collapse or it will be replaced by another currency” – we hear such statements all the time. Are they true? We decided to check these claims – so we invite you to read our today’s article about the US dollar’s international supremacy and find out whether the greenback’s demise is likely in the foreseeable future. Let’s also draw implications from the analysis for the precious metals market.
We have heard about the fall of the US dollar’s significance for over half a century. In particular, the rise of China’s economy threatens the greenback’s dominance. Trump’s unsound fiscal policy and the recent Powell’s dovish turn only reinforce these fears. So, let’s analyze whether such a scenario is likely in the foreseeable future and let’s draw implications for the precious metals market.
The dollar’s supremacy started around 1955 when reserves held in greenback exceeded those held in pound sterling. Since then, the US dollar is a king. To be clear, we do not maintain that greenback is a wonderful currency without problems and better than gold. No, it simply has no competitors among other fiat currencies. It is a king of beggars.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Trump Trade War Is Widening, Not Ending / Economics / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
Almost every day brings comforting news on the trade front. They’re talking! Someone went to Beijing! Someone else is optimistic!
The problem is, that’s just talk. The longer it goes on, the more tariffs damage the economy.
Let’s call tariffs what they are: import taxes. Maybe then the people who oppose all other taxes will stop thinking tariffs are somehow helpful.
There are better and less harmful ways to achieve our goals. But what you or I think doesn’t really matter.
President Trump likes tariffs, and current law lets him use a “national security” pretext to impose them.
So they will continue until he changes his mind, and there’s no sign he will.
Saturday, May 04, 2019
S&P 500 Reversal Signals Becoming Apparent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
In the early parts of 2019, the biggest stories in the financial markets have become apparent in the S&P 500. Corporate earnings seasons was initially expected to be problematic for several major industry sectors. But quarterly earnings managed to outperform analyst expectations roughly 80% of the releases for the period and this helped propel the main U.S. stock benchmarks back toward record levels.
Near the end of the summer period in 2018, many equities analysts were beginning to think this was unlikely for 2019. Target price projections for several sectors were revised lower, and this led to rising volatility where many of the market’s key tech stock names (i.e. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft) fell to new short-term lows. In the periods which which followed, however, the S&P 500 has received a forceful round of dip-buying. Very little in the way if technical price retracement has been visible, but this is not always the type of trend market watchers hope for in terms of long-term sustainability.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my latest analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series that warns to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why I did not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!
Friday, May 03, 2019
MAY Analysis - Stock Market, Machine Intelligence Stocks, House Prices and Gold & Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a head up for planned analysis for MAY 2019 that will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. I aim to post at least 4 pieces of analysis as was the case for April. Primary analysis to include an update to the stock market trend forecast i.e. any deviation from trend, a look at Gold and / or Silver, more stocks to invest to profit from the machine intelligence mega-trend as well as reaping individual personal benefits i.e. in terms of longevity. As well as continuing in-depth analysis in my series seeking to conclude towards a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Economic Dominoes Are Starting to Drop / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: John_Mauldin
In the Great Recession, authorities faced enormous pressure to “do something.”Letting nature take its course may well have been the best strategy. But it couldn’t happen that way in our political system. They had to act.
In 2008–2009, we got things like TARP—the Troubled Asset Relief Program that used $431 billion of your money to buy loans that banks no longer wanted on their books.
What we now forget is that TARP helped banks that weren’t even banks before that point. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and numerous other broker-dealers and insurers hurriedly got bank charters specifically so they could be part of TARP.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Universal Basic Income Would Be a Social and Economic Disaster / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jared_Dillian
I am never going to retire. Oh sure, I say that now, but what about when I am 80? No. I will never stop working.
Every morning, I get out of bed when the alarm goes off, take a shower, put on dress clothes (a suit, usually), and drive 35 minutes to work in an office that I rent in an office building.
I write newsletters. I can just as easily do that on the couch, in a pair of gym shorts, with a cup of coffee. Why spend over an hour a day commuting and dealing with all the brain damage of putting on a suit and going to work?
Friday, May 03, 2019
The May FOMC Meeting Is Over. They Say Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining... / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The May FOMC statement didn’t bring much of a surprise. Fed Chair Powell remained upbeat in his assessment of the U.S. economy while dismissing low inflation as transitory. Gold has initially jumped, only to keep declining later. What has actually happened yesterday, then?
FOMC Statement Acknowledges Lower Inflation
Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on April 30-May 1. In line with expectations, the US central bank unanimously kept its policy rate unchanged. As previously, the inaction reflected the new patient approach adopted by the Fed in January. So, the federal funds rate remained at the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent:
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Friday, May 03, 2019
UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Stock Market Investing Dow Theory Overview. / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Christopher_Quigley
Applying Dow Theory To Investment Practice.
I first came across Dow Theory in 1989 when I lived in Belmont, San Mateo County, California. I thought its creators Charles Dow and William Hamilton had unique insight into stock market behaviour. Accordingly, for over ten years I developed a course incorporating their fascinating insights and have been solidly teaching their market philosophy for over 12 years; writing my first published on the topic in 2007.
One of the most difficult tasks I have encountered teaching this subject is how to prevent students
Friday, May 03, 2019
Toward Japan’s Economic End-Game / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt – and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall.
Ever since Shinzo Abe started his second stint as Prime Minister, Japan has focused on positive economic signals, which has sparked futile hopes, including a bad sales tax proposition.
Japanese officials vow to stick to the planned tax hike in October (it has been delayed twice), barring a big economic shock. With the 2019 budget, Abe hopes to offset adverse impact of the sales tax by returning much of the extra revenue to consumers via $18 billion of offsetting measures, instead of faster debt-reduction.
Friday, May 03, 2019
US Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Shake-Out Begins / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Federal Reserve announced today they are leaving rates unchanged based on their latest meeting. The markets should take this as a sign of relief. Yet, hear all-time highs and expecting the Fed may actually decrease rates a bit, the market reacted with quiet price rotation near these highs.
The US Fed could have shaken up the markets even more, but we believe this move by the Fed will be interpreted as “Fed Uneasiness” with regards to the overall US and global economy at the moment. A failure to prompt a rate increase could be seen as weakness by the Fed and uneasiness over the fragility of the US and Global economies. Once this shake-out settles, the markets will go back to doing what the markets always do – interpreting future fair values.
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Thursday, May 02, 2019
BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my latest analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series that warns to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why I did not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!
Thursday, May 02, 2019
Disney Stock Price Will Hit $170 Next Year / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
On April 12, Disney (DIS) took a massive leap. The stock jumped 12% in a single day:Big, safe stocks like Disney don’t often move 5% in a day, let alone 12%.
And Disney isn’t a small, medium, or even large company. It is a giant company. It’s the 18th-biggest publicly traded American company—bigger than Coca Cola, McDonald’s, and Wells Fargo.
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Thursday, May 02, 2019
Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Richard_Mills
“Whoever has an army has power.” - Mao Zedong
In March Italy broke ranks with its EU partners in joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative, known also as One Belt, One Road or the New Silk Road.
Students of history know the original “Silk Road” refers to the ancient network of trading routes between China and Europe, which served as both a conduit for the movement of goods, and an exchange of ideas, for centuries.
The “New Silk Road” is the term for an ambitious trade corridor first proposed by the Chinese regime under its current president, Xi Jinping, in 2013. The grand design also known, confusingly, as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a “belt” of overland corridors and a “road” of shipping lanes.
It consists of a vast network of railways, pipelines, highways and ports that would extend west through the mountainous former Soviet republics and south to Pakistan, India and southeast Asia.
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Thursday, May 02, 2019
The Fed Can’t Ease Interest Rates Until Stocks Collapse… / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday’s Fed meeting had one clear message:
The Fed needs a reason to cut rates.
The Fed has obviously laid the ground work for a rate cut by hinting at easing… but with the “official” GDP numbers at 3.2% and inflation under 2%… the Fed doesn’t have a clear reason to ease just yet.
It will soon… and that reason is going to be a stock market collapse.
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Thursday, May 02, 2019
How Online Gambling Has Benefited New Jersey’s Economy / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.
So before we plunge into the analysis deep towards concluding in a trend forecast, it's good to understand the reasons why the consensus led by academics usually tend to find themselves on the WRONG side of major market trends.
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