Saturday, July 10, 2021
WD MY Book DUO Drives Lottery - What Disks are Inside - Red or Blue - 28tb Model / ConsumerWatch / Computing
By: HGR
What Drives are inside a Mybook DUO is it a red or blue find out as I open up a 28TB My Book DUO enclosure and find out.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
Stock Market Summer Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I'll take a more in-depth look at the stock market trend in a forthcoming analysis. However as things stand the stock market is starting to move out of my original forecast window for a summer correction (9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021).
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Friday, July 09, 2021
FOMC Minutes: A Confirmation of Fed’s Hawkish Shift? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The latest FOMC minutes were… mixed. The discussion between hawks and doves continues giving gold no comfort. Who will gain the upper hand?Yesterday, the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting in June. Investors who counted on some clear clues are probably disappointed, as the minutes can please both hawks and doves. Indeed, the report showed that the Fed officials are divided on their inflation outlook and the appropriate course of action. The dovish side believes that the recent high inflation readings are transitory and they will ease in the not-so-distant future, while the hawkish camp worries that the upward pressure on prices could continue next year:
Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effect of these transitory factors dissipated, but several participants remarked that they anticipated that supply chain limitations and input shortages would put upward pressure on prices into next year. Several participants noted that, during the early months of the reopening, uncertainty remained too high to accurately assess how long inflation pressures will be sustained.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
Gold: The Tapering Clock Is Ticking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the FED increasingly hawkish and the USDX rising from the ashes, don’t be fooled by the recent upswing in gold. The bears are getting ready.
With the reflation trade getting cut off at the knees, the only asset class not feeling the pain is U.S. equities. However, while shorts capitulate and send the U.S. 10-Year Treasury higher (and the yield lower), the flattening of the U.S. yield curve screams of a potential recession. However, while the development is bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, investors are putting the cart before the horse.
To explain, while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield languishes in its depressed state, J.P. Morgan told clients on Jul. 6 that the Treasury benchmark is roughly three standard deviations below its model-implied fair value. For context, J.P. Morgan believes that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield should trade at roughly 1.60%, and, given the three-sigma underperformance, standard normal probabilities imply a roughly 99.9% chance that the Treasury benchmark will move higher over the medium term.
Friday, July 09, 2021
5 Little-Known Ways Businesses Waste Money / Companies / SME
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Most companies are often so focused on making money that they forget about the importance of saving it.If you’re struggling with a small profit margin, you may need to make various cutbacks to improve your company’s financial security.
Poor cash flow management can result in many organisations closing for good. Don’t follow in their footsteps by learning about the five little-known ways businesses waste money.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
EURUSD Drops Below 1.20 As Dollar Shorts Are Trimmed / / US Dollar
By: S_N_Chatterjee
Activity is back in full swing in the forex market after the latest FED meeting, which has stirred all major currency pairs, including the EURUSD. Even though the pair has been trading up since the beginning of April, the order flow shifted towards the bearish side as interest rates are expected to rise as soon as 2022 in the US, due to a faster economic recovery and robust inflation figures.
A weakening US Dollar for the entire 2020 had been a supportive factor for the global economy, at a time when the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic had started. However, experts at Axia Investments believe that reverse in Dollar weakness will have the opposite effect, acting as a tightening.
Thursday, July 08, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, July 08, 2021
Why U.S. Corporate Bankruptcies Could Skyrocket / Companies / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
"U.S. bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2021 and all of 2020 were above the 13-year average"An April 17 article headline on the website of National Public Radio says:
U.S Economy Looking Good As Spending Jumps In March
And, on April 29, The New York Times said:
Americans' spending on durable goods -- cars and furniture and other goods meant to last a long time -- rose at a stunning 41.4 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.
Considering that the economy is "looking good," economic observers might conclude that a wave of corporate bankruptcies is of little concern.
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Thursday, July 08, 2021
The Silver Bull Is Not Transitory / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor delves into the silver market and discusses why it "looks primed to rally strongly on the back of multiple drivers."
Transitory. That's something we've been hearing a lot lately.
At its latest FOMC meeting the Fed naturally decided to keep the fed funds rate target at 0.25%.
It also decided not to mess with the $120 billion monthly bond buying program to help "support the flow of credit to households and businesses." Par for the course.
Meanwhile inflation numbers of the previous four months have been anything but typical. The Fed's favored Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has soared: in February it was 1.6%, March 2.4%, April 3.6% and in May 3.9%.
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Thursday, July 08, 2021
US Interest Rates: Making the Improbable Today’s Reality / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_Rejczak
The US Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate guidance for 2023; and potentially late 2022. Oddly enough, interest rates have moved lower since the last Fed meeting.
I see an opportunity today.
You would think that the higher interest rate guidance would have created a bump higher in the $TNX (Ten-Year Note Yield). However, wouldn’t that make too much sense? The more trading experience I have gotten over the last two decades, the clearer it is, that logic doesn’t always work - unless you are early enough.
If you have been following along, you know that yesterday, I discussed the S&P Banking sector, namely KBE, as we wait for a pullback to some key technical levels.
It got me thinking: the Ten-Year Note yield should be very similar to that trade.
Thursday, July 08, 2021
ZeroAvia Featured in New U.K. Video to Promote International Trade / Companies / Social Media
By: Umer_Mahmood
ZeroAvia, the company that is revolutionizing the aviation industry, is a proud partner of the U.K.’s Department for International Trade.
ZeroAvia, which is developing sustainable aviation solutions in partnership with leading investors and airline partners, is one of the agency’s collaborators to promote trade with innovative U.K. companies.
A new video produced by the department that touts the country’s commitment to clean transportation solutions features ZeroAvia. Those technological advancements are critical pieces in the country’s move toward its goal of being net zero in emissions by 2050.
Thursday, July 08, 2021
San Diego's Krishen Iyer on Branding and Digital Marketing Suggestions for Nonprofit Organizations / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
For nonprofit organizations, the race is always on for novel ideas to expand outreach. Thanks to digital marketing rising in popularity, the opportunity to revamp your nonprofit’s public awareness is here. Digital marketing gives your nonprofit a way to connect with corporate sponsors, loyal supporters, and potential donors. Here are some suggestions for keeping your branding and digital marketing on par with current trends.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2021
BITCOIN PRICE HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins. Imagine what would happen to the price of Gold if no more Gold could be mined, that's the trend trajectory that Bitcoin appears to be on i.e. there will come a time when NO MORE bitcoin can be mined!
So the simplest thing to do would be to to buy bitcoin when cheap and forget about it for a decade or so and then likely see a return of X10 that which one paid for it.
Total bitcoins mined to date number 18,700,000, 210,000 blocks will be mined from May 2020 to roughly March 2024, totaling 1.3 million bitcoins, which implies a total of 20 million bitcoins by the time of the next halving of rewards for miners to 3.125 bitcoin rewards per block mined (block rewards to miners is how the block chain works).
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Wednesday, July 07, 2021
The Rise of Precious Metals and Commodities / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 closed Friday on a strong note, and as the holiday-shortened week is usually accompanied by positive seasonality, it would be reasonable to expect extension of gains. Is therre any show stopper at the moment? Credit markets are strong and in a risk-on mode – but what about the odd strength in long-dated Treasuries? Are the stock traders getting it right – or the bond ones? Remember that such divergencies can take a long time to resolve, and don‘t require immediate action. It‘s the same with the Industrials and Transports in the Dow theory. So, don‘t jump to S&P 500 bearish conclusions just yet.
The stock market advance is characterized by improving market breadth, and a fresh push of reflationary trades. It would have been all too easy to lose one‘s cool post the June FOMC, and declare value to have topped – while tech amply helped by heavyweights powers the S&P 500 advance, value performance ain‘t too shabby. Even financials are weathering relatively well the retreating yields pressure, counterbalanced by the Fed relaxing share buybacks and dividend rules. Real assets including energy are surging again, and the Fed‘s bluff is being called.
Little wonder when all the central bank did, was influence inflation expectations, and precisely nothing about current inflation – let alone pressures in the pipeline. I‘ve discussed the cost-push pressures building up, leading to inflation becoming unanchored. Add job market pressures beyond the difficulties in hiring, and the issue grows more persistent. While it‘s not biting overly noticeably for the financial markets to take notice the way they did in Mar and early May, left unattended, inflation would come to bite in the not so distant future. The takeaway is that with the constant redefinitions of what transitory should mean now, the concept of Fed as inflation fighter is subject to well deserved mockery.
Look for the lull in Treasury market to continue, it‘s almost goldilocks economy as the monetary and fiscal support rivals wartime footing circumstances. Makes you wonder what would be on the table if we were faced with a recession. Thankfully, that‘s not on the horizon – we‘re in multi-year economic expansiona that won‘t end with the tapering or tightening games this year or next, not in the least.
Wednesday, July 07, 2021
HUI Gold Stocks: The Illusionist's Trick Left Investors Speechless / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The gold miners’ 2021 gains prompted a standing ovation among investors. However, they didn’t notice a magic trick until everything vanished.
The Gold Miners
After the HUI Index plunged by more than 10% and made all of its 2021 gains disappear, the magic trick left investors in a state of shock. But while Mr. Market still hasn’t sawed the HUI Index in half, the illusionist is likely gearing up for his greatest reveal. Case in point: while the Zig Zag Girl captivated audiences in the 1960s, the HUI Index’s zigzag correction leaves little to the imagination. And with the recent swoon a lot more than just smoke and mirrors, the HUI Index’s short-term optimism will likely vanish into thin air.
To explain, despite the profound drawdown, the HUI Index hasn’t been able to muster a typical relief rally. Moreover, with ominous signals increasing week by week, if history rhymes (as it tends to), the HUI Index will likely find medium-term support in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.
Wednesday, July 07, 2021
Is Wall Street’s ESG a threat to the BTC industry? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: S_N_Chatterjee
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Wednesday, July 07, 2021
The Matrix of Market Psychology / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
By: Gary_Tanashian
In the midst of work uncovering a target for the US dollar that will surprise many if it comes about, of taking a hard look at the messages of long-term Treasury yields and the yield curve, defining potential macro outcomes (inflation, Goldilocks or deflation) based on these indications and planning strategy accordingly, NFTRH 662 got a little out there with a discussion of the mindset that is behind the name of the Notes From the Rabbit Hole service.
The mention of John Hussman (I could also have put the estimable Jeff Snider or the Robert Prechter of yore in this piece) is not meant to insult. It is meant to simply state that a fiduciary manager like him, honestly following his work, is not geared to make significant gains during high risk market phases.
I too do not make the gains I could make (temporary though they would be) if I were a blue pill gulping all-in happy idiot. I am bound to ongoing risk management, but also avoiding the red pill while profit making and profit taking (part of risk management) with an awareness of the importance (for me) of high cash levels in a persistently high risk market (as defined by structurally over-bullish sentiment among other things).
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Wednesday, July 07, 2021
7 Top Tips To Fund A Startup / Companies / SME
By: Mark_Adan
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Tuesday, July 06, 2021
You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS - Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I had planned on sending five more biotech stocks to invest and forget for a potential X10 as a continuation of my analysis of 25th May when I covered 5 small cap stocks (4 biotech) (Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! . However, instead for the past few weeks I have been focused on adding meat to my decision of 17th June 2021 to disinvest from my AI stocks portfolio by reducing it by about 38% to date, having sold 50% of my Google shares, 70% Facebook, 100% Amazon, 100% Nvidia, 100% IBM, and I am contemplating some further selling given that the stocks are over valued and many divergences are taking place in the markets which were giving me flash backs to 2007 (Financial Crisis), 2000 (Dot Com Bubble) and even 1989 (Japanification) as we appear to be in a mix of all 3 bubbles to varying degree, though this does not mean a market top is imminent, it's just that we won't know a top is in until after the fact, anyway I had to de-risk to be able to sleep more comfortably at night and also let my Patrons know what I was doing that this article now seeks to illustrate why as stocks are rising into a high risk environment where complacency and high stakes gambling rules for which we only need to look at the likes of the Cathy Woods funds, Gamestop and the crypto mania bubble that topped in April but still over leveraged vested interests cling onto Bitcoin having bottomed with highly convincing commentary spewed to the masses such as stock to flow, halving's, institutional interest as I covered in my in-depth analysis of 15th June (Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels). Which to me despite the 50% drop to date, the crypto's are still in a BUBBLE with much further downside to come given the amount of leverage and further exaggerated by the likes Tether the $62 billion ponzi scheme that provides daily liquidity to the crypto markets.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2021
S&P 500 Stock Market Rally – Are We Nearing The Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Are the US stock markets poised for a reversion price event in the near future? My research team and I believe $4400 on the S&P 500 may be a key psychological level that many traders are unaware of in the immediate term. Some very interesting Fibonacci and Gann dynamics are at play as we watch the excess rally phase continue to drive markets higher. Will the Q2:2021 earning season prompt a blow-off top setup or will the markets continue to rally higher? Continue reading to learn why we are cautious of the $4400 level on the S&P 500 and why you may want to prepare for a moderately big volatility event if our research is correct.
There are a number of key technical components to our research related to the $4400 target peak level for the S&P 500. First, the Fibonacci correlation to the rally phases that have taken place throughout the bullish price waves (1-3-5) since the 2009 bottom. We’ll get to that in a minute. Second, we believe our Gann cycle phase research and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc research suggests the current market rally is very over-extended to the upside. In other words, we believe this excessive upside price trending is likely to revert, quite strongly, at some point in the near future.
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