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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Friday, June 04, 2021

US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past few weeks, the US major indexes have consolidated into a sideways price channel.  This is most obvious on the NASDAQ and SPY charts as we’ve seen moderately deep pullbacks through the months of April/May 2021.  My research suggests this sideways price Flagging might be concerning for active traders/investors. 

When the market flags into a sideways price pattern and near an Apex level, price tends to act in a very aggressive manner while attempting to establish a new trend. The longer price continues to trade within that sideways/flagging price range, the more aggressive and violent the new trend may be when it finally breaks free of the sideways price channel.

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Companies

Thursday, June 03, 2021

Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Trend Analysis / Companies / Microsoft

By: Nadeem_Walayat

3. MICROSOFT - $252.5

Microsoft is up 12% since my last update, and is now over priced on an EC of 70, against fair value of 55. Unless I am missing something, the stock needs to consolidate it's powerful advance before considering going higher as it is not healthy for a stock to keep becoming more expensive. Maybe it's the 2.1% dividend yield that's attracting investors? But on an EC of 70 it is a little expensive for my taste. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 03, 2021

No More Market Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 again rejected within sight of ATHs – again, but not totally convincingly. Especially the credit markets‘ mixed picture leans in effect slightly bullish, yet for the 500-strong index, the source of short-term worry would likely be the tech sector again. Either not pulling ahead as strongly, or taking a breather, which should be more noticeable in XLK than in Nasdaq 100.

VIX looks to be done declining, and the option traders have hedged their Thursday‘s bets. Given the wavering risk-on segment of the credit markets, it‘s probably justifiably enough. Inflation expectations rose a little though, faster than the Treasury yields moved, which could be taken as a sign of value likely to do overall fine next – and that‘s also confirmed by smallcaps and emerging markets. As I wrote on Friday:

(…) Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.

It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.

In other words, I am not buying into the taper smoke and mirrors. The Fed knows that it can‘t (seriously) take away the support – it can only talk that, and look what the market does next. It‘s a long journey of preparation, and I am not looking for the central bank to move any time soon:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 03, 2021

Bank run, or run from the banks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Raymond_Matison

Our nation’s economic conditions have been influenced negatively by a viral lockdown of overall industry such that many of its component parts are in dire financial straits, and a large portion of our total labor force not earning an adequate or any income.  This has easily understandable consequences to our overall national economic fabric.  For example, as individuals have less or even no earned income - it implies reduced spending on their behalf, which for a consumer–based economy has notably negative consequences.  Also when a lockdown occurs people cannot and do not spend as much money – so our consumer driven economy is debilitated.

Lower consumer spending also means reduced revenues and profits for manufacturers, distributors and marketers.  Lower income for both individuals and companies necessarily means lower taxes collected by local and national governments, usually weakening their capabilities for stimulative fiscal policies.

Lower consumer incomes also mean that credit card, auto and mortgage loan defaults will rise – as indeed they have risen over the last several years and are likely to rise further.  The inability of consumers to pay rent will cause owners of rental properties to default on their mortgages.  Lower corporate profits suggests that available bank company credit lines will be tightened, and corporate bond defaults necessarily rise.  Local, state, and national governments collecting fewer dollars in taxes suggests that their borrowing has to increase, heightening the concern also over such more significant bond defaults.  None of this is rocket science.  Corroborating this with pithy charts or tables is now unnecessary and unproductive – as such data has been ignored by investors for a decade or more, while the Federal Reserve has been flooding the country with newly created, inflationary money.  Individuals, companies, and governments believe that they will always be bailed out by FED money easing policies!  But quite the opposite is the truth: debt and FED money printing is now destroying both money and the economy.
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Commodities

Thursday, June 03, 2021

This Chart Shows When Gold Stocks Will Explode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The rebounds in Gold and Silver exceeded my expectations and closed May in a strong fashion, near the highs of the month.

Gold’s monthly close was the third-highest ever. Silver failed to break resistance at $28.50, but its monthly close at $28 was the second-highest in the last eight years.

As noted last week, Gold and gold stocks have perked up in real terms. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

In a previous article I wrote:

“Looking at this chart, it should be apparent that gold at $2000 is fully-priced. Unless you are convinced that the US dollar is going to crash soon, then expectations for much higher gold prices at this point  are unwarranted.”  ($10,000 Gold Or A Triple Top?)

The article was published in August 2020 and the chart is reprinted below…

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Just in case you missed this recent research article, we wanted to put it back on top of your reading list for the long Memorial Day weekend.  As the markets continue to slide into this “Start of Summer” holiday, we’re still seeing big trends setting up over the next few weeks and months.  The way certain assets and sectors are reacting right now may lead many investors to believe a breakout trend is setting up (which could be the case).  But, behind the scenes, sectors are starting to show signs of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern that may surprise those that are not paying attention.

Our Custom Volatility Index, shown below, suggests the markets have now rallied into extreme overbought levels which have historically resulted in a moderate price pullback after reaching levels above 13~14.  We may start out seeing some type of bigger price trending/rotation after the long Memorial Day Holiday should this indicator prove accurate. 

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Economics

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Biden’s Alternate Inflation Universe / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

As Biden Speaks, remember the economy is run by the Fed and it is run by inflation

Of course, a career politician will be adept at framing the narrative just right, adding to it, tweaking it and layering on fancy words and concepts in order to veil the true and unbelievably simple fact that the inflation started under a very different presidential administration and continues to this day. The only difference is that the party that won the election gets to take a bow for the broad results that have little or nothing to do with them.

Biden goes on offensive against economic critics, argues rising wages show his agenda is working

Well, his agenda was to push rising employment costs into the economy with the inflation the Fed created out of thin air. So that is true. I am not against raising minimum wages under this vile inflationary system because low income people cannot keep up with the pace of the inflation the Fed has created. Under an inflationary regime, an inflationary (Keynesian) system, you can’t go with the old conservative method of letting each earn his or her way based on merit. At some point – due to inflation – the goalpost has been moved too far away.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

What You Should Know Before Buying Car Insurance / Personal_Finance / Insurance

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Every motorist needs car insurance, but it is important that you take the time to research your options and to find the best policy that will provide sufficient protection as well as be within your budget. There is a lot of misinformation out there, so keep reading to discover what you need to know before purchasing a car insurance policy.

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Companies

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Summer Prime Day Discount Sale / Companies / Amazon

By: Nadeem_Walayat

2. AMAZON - $3312

Amazons stock price is up 7.5% on my last update when I considered it fair value, though now it looking a little pricey with it's EC rising to 66, so I cannot see how Amazon can have much upside in the immediate future. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Gold Investor's Survival Guide / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: EWI

Hi,

With Bitcoin losing more than 50% off its April high and retail prices rising across the board, you may be looking for a place to park your cash.

How about something with a bit of a track record in that area, like gold?

In 1975, gold futures were created. From there, opportunities to trade gold have flourished via stocks, ETFs and options.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Silver and Copper to Benefit from Global Electrification Push / Commodities / Electricity

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are making modest advances in this final trading week of May. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.

During the extended weekend, millions more Americans compared to last year are expected to hit the roads for travel. They will be confronted with pain at the pump as gasoline prices have risen to over $3.00 per gallon in most parts of the country.

Other signs of a serious inflation problem are building following the massive cash injections into the economy by the Federal Reserve and the Joe Biden administration.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Will Gold Shine Under Bidenomics? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Bidenomics is a big departure from sound economics. But when reason sleeps, gold fortunes are born.

Biden’s triumph in the presidential election does not just mean that a new man lives in the White House. It actually implies a fundamental shift in economic policy . Some analysts even see Biden’s agenda as a decisive break with neoliberalism or “Washington consensus”.

You see, in the old orthodoxy, most economists trusted in markets, argued for privatization, deregulation, and liberalization. Taxes and social benefits should be low and don’t discourage work and investments. The governments should run balanced budgets, avoiding large and permanent fiscal deficits , while central banks should hike interest rates to prevent inflation from running out of control.
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Stock Market Buy the Dip, Again?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 attempted a breakout, but retreated. Is that a reversal, or proof of more pressure building up? Much starker move in the high yield corporate bonds would speak in favor of a reversal, but only until the higher end of the debt markets is examined. Or the volume for that matter, as these would put the reversal hypothesis to rest.

VIX continues turning lower, and option traders are getting the message – finally, the put/call ratio appears to be on a declining path, meaning that fewer market participants are expecting another shoe to drop. As if one fell in the first place, really. Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.

One more proof why the stock market bears are at a disadvantage, comes from other indices, namely the Russell 2000 (look for value to benefit), and emerging markets. The magic of ample Fed support is making its way through the system, lifting prices in many asset classes amid still rampant speculation. It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Stock Market Consolidation Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 31, 2021

Stock Market Summer Correction Review, Crypto CRASH, Bitcoin Bear Market Initial Targets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that concludes in my latest biotech stock picks with the potential to X10 over the coming years Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! that has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Topics Include:

  • Invest and Forget
  • Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review
  • AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness
  • RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE!
  • HIGH RISK STOCK BUYING LEVELS
  • RISK RATINGS
  • WESTERN DIGITAL - WDC $71 - CHIA! - Risk 1
  • Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge
  • Biotech stock 1 - Cheap Low Risk Pharma - Risk 1
  • Biotech stock 2 - HIGH RISK GENE EDITING - Risk 9
  • Biotech stock 3 - Low Risk 2
  • Biotech stock 4 - X10 for Max Risk 10
  • High Risk Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
  • Covid India Black Mold Epidemic
  • Bitcoin and Raven Coin Buying Levels

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Currencies

Monday, May 31, 2021

Is CHIA a Crypto Scam for $100 Billion Stock IPO? STOP Farming / Plotting CHIA NOW! / Currencies / Crypto Mining

By: Nadeem_Walayat

CHIA the so called GREEN crypto that is fast gobbling up all available hard disk storage space with many hundreds of thousands busily farming away 100gb plots in attempts to win the elusive CHIA coins that has in the past couple of weeks commanded prices as high as $1600 per coin so very enticing to sucker in many crypto enthusiasts into it's event horizon including me! Though I soon realised after a weeks farming / plotting that the chances of winning were virtually ZERO, so I stopped plotting Chia on the 14th of May which is where my plot count has remained static at 142 or 14tb of storage used as the maths does not stack up! Furthermore 2 weeks on my decision to stop farming proved correct as the ponzi game that CHIA is has become apparent, one of a mass of unfarmed Chia coins that will go into an IPO, CHIA INC, so as to get the fools on Wall Street to plow upwards of $100 billion into in valuation terms thus allowing the CHIA insiders to cash out with billions all without selling a single CHIA coin!

Meanwhile the suckers, that's you are expected to keep expanding that network space so that the CHIA IPO can carry the greatest value. Anyone who feeds the network space with their hard drives is a fool who has fallen prey to the CHIA Crypto scam that I am sure in years to will come to be investigated by the likes of 60 minutes and Panorama in the UK.

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Commodities

Monday, May 31, 2021

Is Gold Price Setting Up For A Rally Above $2000 Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals.  Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently.  This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, suggests that excess credit/debt issues throughout the global financial markets are seeking safety in preparation for some type of market reversion event.

The recent move above $1900 in gold shows that precious metals are likely entering a new bullish price phase.  We highlighted this in a May 3rd research article suggesting that a new advancing cycle phase may push Gold to levels above $2100.  If our research is correct, Gold may continue to rally higher – reaching a peak sometime near mid-October 2021.

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Economics

Monday, May 31, 2021

Fed Offers No Holiday from Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Heading into Memorial Day weekend, American motorists will see the highest prices at the pump since 2014, according to AAA. Gas prices now average $3.04 a gallon nationally – reflecting a jump of more than $1.00 compared to the same time last year.

A rising gasoline price is just one of many emerging symptoms of a larger inflation problem:

  • A lack of housing inventory, low interest rates, and surging costs for building materials are pushing home prices through the roof.
  • Billionaire Warren Buffett recently complained that he is seeing significant inflation pressures throughout the supply chains of businesses he owns.
  • Beef is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many grocery shoppers, and rising food costs are forcing already beleaguered restaurants to hike menu prices.
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InvestorEducation

Monday, May 31, 2021

You Should Never Trade Options If You Don’t Know This… / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Have you ever heard someone say “90% of people that trade options lose money.”? I certainly have. Looking at an options chain can be a dizzying exercise for the uninformed. Delta, Gamma, Theta, Rho, Vega – and let’s not forget – implied volatility? Single, spread, butterfly, condor. What does it all mean? 

So what is an option from a high level view? 

At the end of the day, an options contract is just a derivative like any other stock, bond, ETF, or other tradable security based on an underlying asset. Most people will look at these other forms of derivatives and have an understanding of why the price fluctuates. For example, if a company posts a strong earnings report and the price of the stock goes up, it is easy to understand what is going on. In the case of options contracts, however, things do get a bit more complicated. Let’s break things down a little bit to start to get an idea of why many investors are afraid to trade options. 

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