Saturday, April 04, 2020

US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, the US scored a sad record. The number of deaths related to the coronavirus in the US surpassed the death toll in China. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

US Epidemiological Situation Is Grim
Just as people were overly optimistic before the stock market top, they can be too pessimistic right now. This is a real risk and we take it into account. However, the incoming data confirm our view expressed in the April edition of the Gold Market Overview that “the US will be severely hit” and that “the worst is yet ahead for the States”. Unfortunately, it turned out that we were right. On Monday, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States. So much for the claims that influenza is worse than coronavirus. The U.S. coronavirus-related deaths reached more than 4,000 deaths, which is behind only Italy and Spain! The US death toll has actually surpassed the number of deaths in China (much more populous country), as you can see in the chart below.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Thinking somewhat far off into the future, our researchers believe China/Asia could become the next Black Hole in the global economy.  China recently released its March PMI number which came in at 52.0 – showing moderate expansion in Chinese manufacturing.  The February Chinese PMI level was 35.7.  We strongly believe China wants to show some strength in their perceived economic recovery and that these PMI numbers are somewhat “manufactured for effect”.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis / Economics / Pandemic

By: Dan_Steinbock

Since inadequate preparedness prevailed in Europe until recently, the consequent pandemic will cast a prolonged, dark shadow over the regionwide economy – starting with the contraction, followed by the debt crisis.

Around the world, the early economic defense against the economic impact of the novel coronavirus has been by the major central banks to cut down the rates, inject liquidity and re-start major asset purchases.

Friday, April 03, 2020

Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Let's start by establishing that the stock market is not driven by the news. Aggregate stock prices are driven by waves of optimism and pessimism -- which go from one extreme to another -- as reflected by the Elliott wave model. That's what makes the stock market predictable.

Hence, Elliott wave analysis is at the core of EWI's stock market forecasts.< /p>

Friday, April 03, 2020

How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Item: March 16, 2020. A huge poly-metallic (gold, silver, copper) mining operation in Mongolia "has suspended operations" after authorities "restricted the movement of goods and people within the country."

Item: March 17. In Peru, one of the world's largest primary silver-gold producers has its 4 mines "temporarily suspended" following the Government's Declared State of Emergency.

Item: March 18. A Canadian mining major suspends construction of a $4.7b copper mine upgrade in Chile affecting 15,000 workers.

Friday, April 03, 2020

US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Richard_Mills

I’m just going to come right out and say it: The United States is not equipped to deal with a pandemic. The nation of 327 million, despite having the number one economy in the world, and by far the most powerful military, is shockingly ill-prepared, not only in terms of having the proper supplies to fight the hard-to-kill coronavirus, but also regarding its lack of focus, its dearth of leadership, and perhaps most failingly, its inability to mobilize a population against a common viral enemy. 

On Monday, US stocks rallied, due to traders optimistic over efforts to deliver rapid testing of the coronavirus, and multinational Johnson & Johnson announcing a potential vaccine candidate. 

Prompt and widespread testing in other countries, like South Korea, has been effective in curbing the spread of covid-19. But the US testing regime has proved woefully inadequate. There are not nearly enough test kits available, it took too long to start testing, and the kits have been slow to deliver results to an anxious population. 

Friday, April 03, 2020

Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus Infections and deaths trend trajectories for the UK and US continue to go parabolic, far beyond anything anyone could have imagined even 2 weeks ago when the US had just 170 deaths and the UK 100, since which time they have continued to follow catastrophic trajectories recently prompting dire warnings out of the UK and US to expect as many as 20,000 UK deaths and 200,000 US deaths.

The focus of this analysis will be on the probability of dieing if one contracts Covid19 over the coming weeks, analysis which is based on data from the Journal of American Medical Association and the Lancet's analysis of Italian and Chinese deaths.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The only adult in the White House Dr Fauci has started stating what sort of death toll to expect for the Untied States over the coming months of between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths as a consequence of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Trump implemented the Defence Production act mobilising US industry into producing tens of thousands of ventilators, which whilst good is however TOO LATE as the actions the US is taking today should have been taken a month ago!

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he is bearish in the short to medium term.

Whichever way you cut it, silver's chart looks bearish for the short to medium term, but against this we must set its rapidly improving COT structure and the mega-bullish silver to gold ratio (by all past standards).

Silver's 7-month chart is a rather grim picture. On it we see that key support failed this month, leading to a dramatic plunge to new lows, and this support has now become resistance. In addition we see that moving averages have swung into bearish alignment, with a bearish "death cross" having occurred about a week ago. The relief rally of the past week or so in sympathy with the relief rally in the broad stock market fueled by Fed intervention, that we predicted and played via leveraged silver ETFs and Calls, is therefore thought to be petering out and set to be followed by another probably steep selloff, congruent with another decline in the broad stock market, and a potentially heavy decline in the precious metals sector.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

In discussion with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, the Mercenary Geologist offers his take on the coronavirus pandemic, its impacts on economic policy and what he's buying (or not buying) right now.

Maurice: Today we will find out if we are at risk of losing our liberty to the coronavirus, along with buying opportunities for your investment portfolio. Joining us for a conversation is Mickey Fulp, the world-renowned Mercenary Geologist.

Absolute delight to speak with you sir. Mickey, you are the Mercenary Geologist, but you're equally regarded highly for your views on philosophy and politics, and every time we speak my neurons expand. You and I have shared concerns regarding the erosion of liberty as the federal government and municipalities have been perniciously increasing their influence over the years, and in particular in the response to the coronavirus. Sir, what concerns should we have regarding our liberties that many people are not considering due to the government's response to the coronavirus?

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Could the US Become Another Weimar Republic? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the potential ramifications of current U.S. fiscal and monetary policy.

The U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities are shoveling trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy to prevent a collapse of the economy and the financial system. Will this money be repaid or otherwise withdrawn from the system? If not, what consequences can we anticipate? We know under TARP the loans and preference share funding provided to various companies in 2008/9 was largely repaid. We expect most large companies will repay the loans they receive this time also, but the terms will be very easy and they will be made easier if needed. Money for state governments, hospitals and other emergency health-related expenditures is not coming back. Most of the money to smaller companies will likely be in the form of grants if they keep employees on salary. Money directly to individuals will not be repaid.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Many traders become very emotional when the markets turn Bearish and fail to properly understand that price structure is still driving market price movement.  This morning, I highlighted this structure to my subscribers attempting to alert them to the possibility that the markets could recover moderately over the next 3 to 5+ days attempting to set up the next “waterfall” downside price event.

On January 29, 2020, I posted a research article detailing my belief that a “waterfall” type of event was setting up in the markets.  This article was nearly 30 days prior to the peak in the markets.  It explained how events take place and how markets tend to develop a moderate recovery phase between selloff price declines.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? / Politics / Coronavirus Depression

By: N_Walayat

Paypal are seeing an opportunity in a crisis, one of wanting to manage the US Governments distribution of $1200 Coronavirus stimulus to every adult American who earns under $75,000 per year and $500 for each child.

However, there is a fly in the ointment as $360 billion would be a lot of money to be potentially parked in Paypal's coffers! That's before any transaction fees are applied. Therefore, there is a high risk of corporations such as Paypal seeing such a vast sums of funds as an opportunity to capitalise upon through limiting account holders access to stimulus funds.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

So what's like for a family living under lockdown in the UK where your not allowed to go out for more than a brisk walk around the neighbourhood. All in attempts to flatten the parabolic pandemic curve that saw over 500 deaths last week, with likely another 10,000 deaths to come this month before the curve is flattened through extreme shutdown measures.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Boris Johnson is infected and self isolating, Matt Hancock the Health Minster is infected and self isolating, Chris Whitty the Chief Medical officer is infected and self isolating. Westminister is now turning into a hottest of UK hotspots as the officials and MP's failed to practice that which they preached. Maybe with these idiots out of the picture the nation can act more competently in containing the pandemic. Meanwhile the government representative at the daily briefings has started mentioning that if the UK can keep deaths below 20,000 than that would be a good thing! What's South Korea's number? 150! CRIMINAL! That's what the governments response to Coronavirus has been CRIMINAL! Now there are even reports that the government is under reporting the number of deaths perhaps in attempts to average out the numbers over a month rather than to post spikes that would panic healthcare workers and the general public.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Thursday, the initial jobless claims rocketed to almost 3.3 million. Quite an unimaginable number. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

One of the Most Scariest Things You Will See This Week

Would you like to see something scary? I guess not, but I'll show you anyway! But don’t worry: it will not be an microscope image of the coronavirus! Instead, I will present you a chart, a really scary chart… Ready to take a look?

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Mark Twain said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. It’s certainly true in both life and financial markets. Let’s explore how the recent history lessons apply to the precious metals.

The 2008 - Now Link

Let’s recount the similarities. We already had gold reversing on huge volume, and we saw it decline very strongly in the first week after the top. We already had another attempt to break above that high and we saw it fail. We also saw rhodium at about $10,000. We already saw silver and miners plunging much more severely than gold did. In fact, silver just plunged almost exactly as it did in 2008 during the analogous part of the slide.

All these factors make the current situation similar to how it was in 2008, at the beginning of one of the biggest declines in the precious metals sector of the past decades.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US has had a major advantage over the rest of the western world, which is that it has had a LOT MORE TIME TO PRPARE FOR THE PANDEMIC, Unfortunately the US only really started to actually act in any significant manner when the stock prices started to collapse early March. However, that still gave the US a good head start on the likes of the UK, which is reflected in the US's low CFR rate of 1.3%.

Which suggests that the US DOES have a chance to get a grip on the pandemic and veer more towards South Korea then Italy or Britain where the pandemic is more less now baked in.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion / Politics / Pandemic

By: Dan_Steinbock

The novel coronavirus is exploding in the US and Europe, due to complacency and inadequate preparedness. The escalation will translate to debt explosion, which will further complicate and prolong the fight against the virus globally.

As the COVID-19 challenge moved from imported cases to local transmissions, I warned in the briefing of March 9 that the rise of local transmissions was a game-changer in the coronavirus escalation. Here's what I projected then:

“Even though many observers expected virus challenges to ease toward April, the acceleration of new cases outside China is only beginning and likely grossly under-reported. The number of confirmed cases worldwide is set to climb in the future – even faster as tests are broadened in major affected countries.”

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves / Politics / Shopping

By: HGR

What it was like to try and shop at UK Supermarkets (Tesco) in the countdown to lock down and social distancing. after most of the shelves had been cleared by panic buying.