Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Rally For USD/JPY While 10 Year US Treasuries Move Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
US Bonds were trading lower in the last two sessions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most policymakers still favor a tapering program this year. But sell-off on bonds came on news that QE could end in mid-2014. USD was firstly down on the news, but then it recovered during the Asian trading hour. However, EUR/USD is again finding some bid, so no real direction at the moment. Meanwhile the S&P Futures are rallying.
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Wednesday, October 09, 2013
Fiat Paper Currencies are NOT Gold! / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: DeviantInvestor
Paper currencies seem normal. They seem natural. We are told they are necessary. Paper currencies with no intrinsic value are used everywhere - we pretend they are valuable. If we don't look closely, or remember the world of 60 years ago, they seem like a good idea.
Monopoly money. Euros. Dollars. What is the essential difference? Paper, with no intrinsic value, is accepted only because we have confidence in the issuer of the currency and/or because we have no other choice. Monopoly money can buy hotels on Park Place. Unbacked paper dollars can buy hotels in Manhattan. The hundreds of unbacked paper currencies that have become worthless during the last century can buy NOTHING.
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Monday, October 07, 2013
Japanese Yen USD Elliott Wave Forecast : Bullish Reversal Could Be Near By / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDJPY did not accelerate to the upside yet, so it seems that we will have to wait on a bullish price action a little longer, As such, we adjusted the wave count and suspect that pair is in final stages of a wave (4) now. We however are still observing a triangle that should be near completion. We see wave E) down that could look for a bottom around 97.00 area from where we could reverse up in wave (5). An impulsive rally from current zone would be a confirmation for a new bullish period on USDJPY.
Friday, October 04, 2013
Syrian Pound Soars, Iran’s Single Digit Inflation, and Other Troubled Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Syria: On September 27th, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution outlining the details of the turn over and dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has stated that his government will abide by last week’s UN resolution calling for the country’s chemical weapons to be destroyed.
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Thursday, October 03, 2013
Euro's October Seasonals and Gold Shutdown / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Euro rallies across the board on breaking political and monetary news as:
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Italian PM Letta wins a confidence vote in the Senate following Berlusconi's U-turn to support the incumbent government after 25 dissidents from his party gave Letta's government the numbers he needed for maintaining majority.
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
Room For More U.S. Dollar Weakness After The Government Shutdown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD is sharply down across the board after the US government shutdown. Some would think that US stocks futures will turn lower, but we in fact can see higher prices since the news came out. However, we may see a risk aversion (lower stocks) if government will be shutdown for too long, lets say around 3 weeks. In the past the longest close was 21 days, back in 1995 (source Wikipedia). The longer the shutdown will last, more nervous investors will become.
Monday, September 30, 2013
EURUSD: Bullish Contracting Triangle In Progress / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD accelerated to the upside in the last few hours from the lower side of a trading range. As such, with the latest time we see triangle as the best labeling in wave four, but we still need wave (e) before pattern is complete. Ideal support zone for end of wave (e) comes in at 1.3490-1.3510 region. If we are correct then we will see more impulsive ride on Euro in this week.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
China Yaun, Renminbi: Soon to Be a World Reserve Currency? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: John_Mauldin
I get the question all the time: when will the Chinese renminbi (RMB) replace the US dollar as the major world reserve currency? The assumption behind such questions is almost always that the coming crisis in US entitlement programs will force the Fed to monetize even more debt, thereby killing the dollar. Or some derivative line of that thought. Contrary to the thinking of fretful dollar skeptics, my firm belief is that the US dollar is going to become even stronger and will at some point actually deserve to be the reserve currency of choice rather than merely the prettiest girl in the ugly contest – the last currency standing, so to speak.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
USD-CHF Bearish Waves Are Pointing Towards 0.9050 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDCHF is showing some nice sharp downside price action after recent sharp fall to 0.9100 area which appears to be wave three of three of an impulsive structure. If that's the case then we know that market will move even lower in sessions ahead but after a completed fourth wave pull-back that is now in progress. Ideally pair will test 0.9150 area before downtrend resumes. Generally speaking trend is clearly bearish on the 4h time frame posted below and it will stay down as long as 0.9228 level is not breached because we know that wave four must not trade into a temerity of a wave one.
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Friday, September 20, 2013
U.S. Dollar Still Hanging on the Fiat Cliff / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Arguably, throughout the ages, money and the immense power it manifests, is the most potent driver of systemic corruption.
Further to such argument, it is self-evident that high-level branches of modern-day governments and their attendant institutions alongside private foundations and transnational corporate alliances have been wholly subject to such corruption for centuries.
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Wednesday, September 18, 2013
U.S. Dollar Outlook: Taper, Yellen and German Elections / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Why are the markets so excited that the smartest guy in the room takes his name out of the running for the (second?) most powerful job in the world? With Larry Summers no longer holding back the markets, what's next for the dollar, currencies and gold?
Monday, September 16, 2013
GBP-USD: When Support Line Becomes A Resistance Line / Currencies / British Pound
By: Gregor_Horvat
A decline on GBPUSD from 2008 peak to 2009 low was in five waves, which in Elliott Wave theory indicates a direction of a larger trend. This is called an impulse wave, and once this leg is complete you will see a reversal in price, against the trend, normally into a slow, choppy and overlapping price action which is personality of a correction.
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Thursday, September 12, 2013
British Pound Bearish Reversal Forecast / Currencies / British Pound
By: Gregor_Horvat
Pound (Forex: GBPUSD) is in bullish mode and reached our projected zone for this week; 1.5800-1.5900 which is actually a very important resistance zone in combination with the wave principle and Fibonacci levels. As you can see on the chart we are tracking a huge wedge pattern called an ending diagonal which usually predicts a very strong reversal. With that said, we are keeping an eye on potential sell-off on this pair from current resistance zone. This sell-off can happen soon if we consider that prices are in late stages of wave 5) now, testing 61.8% Fibonacci projection compare to wave 3) and also approaching 161.8 % extension of wave 4).
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Elliott Wave Forecast On USD-CAD: Two Scenarios, Both Bullish / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD-CAD is in bearish mode since Friday which means that move from 1.0243 was actually made only in three waves, so this rally is now part of a larger complex correction, either a flat or a triangle. For now we will focus on a triangle but need to see an evidence of a low around 1.0300 zone and rally back to 1.0468 to confirm idea of a contracting triangle.
Monday, September 09, 2013
EUR-USD Already Bearish; GBP-USD Bears Yet To Come / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD found a support on Friday after NFP report around 1.3100 area from where we have seen more than 80 pip rally back to the wave 2-wave 4 trendline. Usually when this occurs it means that five wave decline is complete and that market reversed into a temporary correction.
Thursday, September 05, 2013
US Dollar As Money, Myths, Lies, Deceptions and Millstones / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many are the myths held so firm by the public. Many are the lies told so boldly by the leaders. Many are the millstones around the neck of the system that is fast losing its momentum. Many are the frauds committed routinely in full view. The entire US system is unraveling, myths exposed, lies contradicted, while the millstones weigh down the financial and economic system. The absent Gold Standard, the invalidity of money, the insolvency of banks, the toxic nature of sovereign debt, the illegitimate money, the intrusive debilitating central bank franchise system, these are grand millstones around the neck of the Western system. The current monetary policy is killing capital, a fact not observed by 5% of working economists, the harlots working closely to policy making. The nation is hurtling quickly toward systemic failure in every conceivable frame of light. A quick review should be revealing of myths, lies, deceptions, and millstones.
Thursday, September 05, 2013
U.S. Dollar Clues for Trend Over Next Few Months / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to show you some charts on the US dollar that is finally showing a little action after a month or so of chopping around towards the lows. I have many different looks that might give us a clue or two on what to expect over the next month or so.
The first chart is a 6 month daily chart that shows a potential double inverse H&S bottoming formation. As you can see the smaller inverse H&S #1 had a nice long bar on the breakout followed by a backtest the next day. That completed the smaller inverse H&S bottom. The rally only lasted one day which gave us a point to drawn in the 2nd Neckline. The price action is now getting ready to backtest NL #1 again that would create the right shoulder for the bigger inverse H&S #2. So this is a critical backtest taking place in the next day or two to the 81.90 area. If neckline #1 can hold support the price objective of the bigger H&S bottom would be up to the 84.85 area which would be back at the previous high made in July.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2013
USDCHF Elliott Wave Forecast - Could Test 1.0000 By 2013 End / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDCHF: Sharp reversal in 2011 from 0.7000 area is impulsive leg, and we know that impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we think that pair is now bullish for minimum three wave rise; A)-B)-C). In the last few months we have seen a slow and choppy price action in 0.8900-1.0000 range which now seems to be a contracting triangle placed in wave B). We can already count five waves within this pattern so traders must be aware for a push higher into wave C) later this year.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 03, 2013
EUR-USD Could Be Forming A Major Turning Point For The Year / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last week or so which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. However, decline from 1.3450 is actually still in three waves so corrective outlook must not be ignored but we will stay with current sentiment and focus on the bearish scenario as long as 1.3400 holds. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 02, 2013
U.S. Dollar Index Strength Suggests Lower Euro and GBP Ahead / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Gregor_Horvat
Markets gapped on Sunday againts the USD after the U.S. President Barack Obama delayed a military strike against Syria by requesting authorization first from an incredulous Congress. From a technical perspective the wave patterns and direction did not change much. We are bullish on USD, it means we expect weaker majors, such as EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD and even JPY. Read full article... Read full article...