Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Investing Tips For New Investors / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Mark_Adan
1. Know Your Investment Goals
There are several key questions every potential investor should ask themselves before venturing into the industry. Your reasons for investing and how long are two of the key questions you should have an answer to before you can venture into the stock market. Are you looking to grow your wealth, saving for retirement, or hoping for a house deposit? It is only after identifying and defining your investment goals that you’ll be able to determine what stocks to invest in and for how long.
Monday, November 15, 2021
Stock Market Inflation Consequences - S&P Dividend Yield vs CPI / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Best Real Terms Asset Price Growth Countries for the Next 10 Years / Forecasts / Investing 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What one wants to see is what is likely to happen over the next 10 and years, so after much number crunching here are my tables as a rough guide for which are the best nations in terms of relative strength of asset prices in real terms i.e. housing and stocks and which are the worst over the next 10 and 20 years based on the ageing population metric. However, a single metric even though a very important one is just not enough so I have also included a nations climate change risk profile that is expected to increasingly impact on GDP as well as GDP per capita where the lower the GDP the greater the potential for real terms growth i.e. it is much easier for Nigeria to double the size of their economy per capita than Malaysia. Whilst nations with very low GDP Per capita such as Afghanistan have a huge mountain to climb before they become stable enough for sustained growth spurts.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Covid Vaccinations - THEY WANT US TO FEAR ROOM 101 / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: James_Quinn
“You asked me once, what was in Room 101. I told you that you knew the answer already. Everyone knows it. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world.” – O’Brien – Orwell’s 1984
GreatWritersFranzKafka: George Orwell`s 1984: The Downward Journey by Brian W. Aldiss Fauci pressed over U.S. funding of cruel medical experiments on dogs and puppies; Beagles locked in cages with sand flies, vocal cords removed | National | stardem.com
“’By itself,’ he said, ‘pain is not always enough. There are occasions when a human being will stand out against pain, even to the point of death. But for everyone there is something unendurable — something that cannot be contemplated. Courage and cowardice are not involved.” – O’Brien – Orwell’s 1984
When the story broke about mass murderer Anthony Fauci funding the torturing and killing of puppies in Tunisia, with the picture of the puppies with their heads in cages so they could be eaten alive by hungry sandflies, after having their vocal cords slit (so the poor “experimenters” wouldn’t be subject to the harrowing howls of the dying puppy beagles), my mind immediately jumped to the climactic scene in Orwell’s 1984.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets 2021 / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons for investing in crypto's is INFLATION i.e. fiat currency is constantly being devalued whilst many crypto's are limited to print run such as Bitcoin. So whilst I have not bought any Bitcoin to date due to not meeting my price targets so far. However, going forward I will be retaining all mined bitcoin regardless of what happens to the price, roughly I mine about $300 worth of bitcoin per month across 2 desktops.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Gold’s run shows interest rate hikes not coming soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
Gold continued to rally on Tuesday, as investors and metal traders priced in expectations that central banks will keep interest rates low until late 2022 at the earliest.
At time of writing spot gold and gold futures were both changing hands at about USD$1,833/oz.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Clearly at times of market panic investors rush to Gold and then eventually once the dust settles soon realise in comparison Silver is cheap and thus plays catchup, usually swinging from cheap to expensive against Gold. So allowing for a delayed reaction there does exist a strong correlation between the Gold price and Silver. In terms of trend both Gold and Silver appear to be correcting their 2020 bull runs so should resolve upwards once the correction ends.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Silver Previous Trend Forecast Recap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last in-depth Silver analysis:
29th Jan 2020 - Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020
Initially I am expecting a very volatile trading range between a low of $16.50 to a high of $19 for the next 3 months or so, following which the Silver price 'should' respond to a Gold price rally and follow the yellow metal higher. The trends not going to be pretty but I expect Silver to trade above $20, and likely reach a peak near $21 later in the year as the forecast graph illustrates.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy in Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Nadeem_Walayat
You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.
The Fed states US real GDP is currently +12% year on year . Now consider this, what inflation measure do you think the Fed is using to calculate these GDP figures? CPI? WRONG! GDP price deflator which tends to consistently under estimate inflation even against CPI as the following graph illustrates.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up.Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices.
On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0!
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.
I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.
And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:
(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.
S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.
Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.
Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
Gold Price Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently reached the APEX of the Flag setup.
This is very important for two reasons. First, as the global central banks begin to plan and prepare for more normalized monetary policy, and address credit excesses and inflationary price concerns, the advantages of Gold as a hedging instrument become more valuable. Secondarily, after a massive rise in asset prices and an even bigger global attempt to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 virus event, the world has never been in this scenario. Near-zero interest rates, excessive amounts of money and credit throughout the world, asset prices showing near hyper-inflation trends, and the global central banks taking very little action to address any future economic concerns.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Forget the official UK inflation indices which are just as fake as those in the US and those that spew out of the CCP, a year ago I estimated the REAL rate of UK inflation was 16%, today I estimate it to be near 20%! But that is the average amidst that there will be huge variances with the price of many goods, materials and services more than doubling! Case in point being UK energy / natural gas prices which have doubled and are on their way to tripling as the pieces of turd energy companies FAILED to HEDGE prices as they crept higher during the summer months because they knew at the end of the day they could just walk away from their contracts with customers, shut up shop and reopen under a slightly different name with the same staff and premises, WHAT A SCAM!
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Emerging Markets: How to Get a Grip on "Chaos of History" / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Hi reader,
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is composed of 1,400 stocks from 27 nations. You'd think that the trillions of buy/sell decisions from across the region would result in a chaotic-looking chart.
But the opposite is true.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
China Singles' Day - Toward Double 11 Record Sales, Despite Economic Uncertainties / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the world’s largest e-commerce market, China is likely to continue growing faster relative to North America and Western Europe. Singles’ Day 2021 will reflect that expansion.
Before the Singles Day, some observers thought that recent growth deceleration and continued regulatory scrutiny could dampen e-commerce in 2021. Yet, the full-year results may prove not that different from the past year.
On October 20, Alibaba and JD.com kicked promotions off already on October 20 since they are no longer restricted to a 24-hour time window. Last year, Alibaba’s Tmall reported sales of $78 billion in the first 10 days of November; 26 percent more than the previous year. This year, the Double 11 turnover is expected to increase solidly in absolute terms, even if the growth rate slows, due to last year’s high base.
In times of uncertainty, consumers are more cost-conscious. Due to broad discounts and promotions, that is expected to translate record sales during the Singles Day.
Saturday, November 13, 2021
Tips For Investment Success / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Mark_Adan
We live in an information society - however, the information that we receive cannot always be relied upon. That information is supplied by the mass media and is often the product of pundits in cyberspace - that obviously might not be those who are the best sources of information. However - as a logical human being you may very well have more logical ideas. But - even given that insight there are some hints and tips that can provide guidelines that will improve the performance of your portfolio.
So here are some hints and tips from those who know a portfolio and how to make it provide them with an income in a time of high uncertainty.
There is a tremendous amount of information that is available to those who want to enter into the realm of cyberspace. The print media still has a gravitas that is not easy to match. Then there are friends and family - and they can be tremendously influential in shaping your thoughts. Given all these inputs, how do we find that path towards a personal investment that actually delivers,
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
How To Shop For The Right Good Online Video Editor / Personal_Finance / Money Supply
By: Submissions
Not all video editing tools can give you high-quality videos. Remember, there are hundreds of tools online. Some of these tools are out to take your money. Some of these tools come with poor features. Getting the best videos from these tools isn’t easy. Thus, it’s important to do your homework property when shopping around for the right editor. Here are key things you should look for in a good video editor.
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Friday, November 12, 2021
Window OPEN! Budgie GONE! PANIC Search for LOST Budgie! / Politics / Animals & Pets
By: N_Walayat
Where’s the Budgie! Where’s the Blue Budgie! Left the budgies in the room with the window open and can not find the blue budgie, it’s GONE out of the open WINDOW!
Panic search begins for the budgie in the garden, is it in a tree, is it on the ground, has it hopped over the fence into the neighbour’s garden – WHERE IS IT???? PANIC!
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