Saturday, May 22, 2021
What Investors and Traders Should Be Doing About the Stock Market’s Strange Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Today, I’m going to answer a question that’s likely on your mind. It’s about the stock market’s recent strange behavior and the one thing ALL investors and traders should be doing about it.You see, one of the very first stocks I ever recommended just reported phenomenal earnings. Sales jumped 37%. The company acquired a record number of customers, and it forecasts great sales again next quarter. What do you think happened to the stock price? We’ll come back to this in a moment.
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Saturday, May 22, 2021
Cryptocurrency Crash Benefits Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
This week has been truly brutal for the entire cryptocurrency sector, with the prices of major currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum crashing at least 30%. The overall sector has shed trillions of dollars in value.
The recent carnage for holders of digital currencies could be due to a variety of factors including profit taking spurred by Elon Musk, an easing of inflation worries, or concerns about new regulations coming down the pike.
Whatever the case may be, some of the capital that recently left the crypto space has found its way into the gold and silver markets. This trend could continue as well, with precious metals gathering strength and with Bitcoin still having plenty of room to fall further.
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Saturday, May 22, 2021
DXY Weakness: Are You in A Crowded Commodities Trade? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Have you been long commodities like agriculture or oil? The US Dollar has continued to weaken, but is this trade getting a little long in the tooth?
Happy Hump Day, folks. Here are some quick facts: The US dollar has been in a steep downtrend since late March. The most recent CPI print in the US was a monster. The Fed has continued with the “lower for longer” theme. The Biden administration is looking to spend trillions upon trillions with no clear path for repayment, and it doesn’t seem to matter. Has the short dollar/long commodities trade gotten “too easy"?
The answer is yes, or at least most likely. Some steam will have to come out at some point. I’m not setting off any immediate alarm bells here and don't care to theorize on whether inflation is indeed transitory, as the Fed states. However, when a trade theme has that much going for it, for so long, in leveraged markets, it usually ends suddenly or at least experiences a snapback. Just some food for thought.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) can give us some clues.
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Saturday, May 22, 2021
Gold historically follows Inflation higher. Will it do so Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
Precious metals are among the best places to park your money in times of economic or political distress.
Gold and silver offer stability during a period of extreme stock market volatility and low bond yields, and while they do not pay interest or dividends, they are not subject to inflation like paper currencies.
It is also, in my opinion, a smart strategy to allocate a portion of gold and silver to your investment portfolio, knowing that precious metals can be used as a “fail-safe” currency in the event of a total financial collapse.
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Friday, May 21, 2021
How the Pandemic Is Changing the Labor Market / Economics / Employment
By: Patrick_Watson
When it comes to the US jobs situation, the “One of these things is not like the others” song from Sesame Street comes to mind.We have two competing narratives. Official data says millions are unemployed and seeking work. At the same time, businesses say they can’t find enough workers.
A skills mismatch between the workers who need jobs and the job openings themselves isn’t unusual. But many of today’s available jobs don’t require advanced education.
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Friday, May 21, 2021
Gold Price Reversal Is the Name of the Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
When the USDX declines, the PMs usually celebrate and rise as a result. However, this was not the case yesterday – and we can’t ignore it.
“Reversal” is the name of the game, at least when it comes to the precious metals market.
The USD Index declined profoundly once again yesterday (May 18), and gold, silver, and mining stocks ignored this move. They didn’t want to follow in its footsteps anymore.
Friday, May 21, 2021
Inflation Bunker Mentality: 'Striking' Similarities Between Now and the Inflationary 1970s / Economics / Inflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the parallels between the present and the inflationary years of the mid-1970s, and also comments on how gold markets are responding.
For many of those following the writings of this "dithering old fool," who continues to hold an unfailing conviction in the strategic importance of gold and silver ownership in an otherwise out-of-control fiscal and monetary world, let me tell you a story about the 1970s.
I arrived in Saint Louis, Missouri, in the late summer of 1972, at the start of a magical four-year career as a student athlete at one of the top undergraduate business schools in the country. Populated largely by Jesuit educators, it also had many non-Jesuit professors in the twilight of their business careers that bestowed impressive anecdotes upon the collective psyches of the student population. In fact, it was a wonderful, coffee-sipping, Camel non-filter-chain-smoking finance professor who stood in front of the class in old De Smet Hall one morning, tripping the light fantastic about the implications of Richard Nixon abandoning the gold standard the year before and how it was going to cause massive inflation.
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Friday, May 21, 2021
3 World-Shaking Trends Investors Need To Watch This Year / Companies / BioTech
By: FinancialMorningPost
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels, Expensive / Cheap (EC) Indicator and Buy % Ratings Review / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph -
9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Credit Market Wheels in Danger of Coming Off? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
SPX backing and filling worthy of Monday‘s session – with important rotations below the surface. Namely, tech and Nasdaq underwent daily consolidation on long-dated Treasuries retreating a little. Key point though was rejection of the intraday downside, making the S&P 500 pendulum likelier to swing this week again bullish. The VIX spike was rejected while option traders didn‘t give up much of their bearish resolve, which doesn‘t spoil the bullish picture though.
Stock trading yesterday was accompanied by the bond markets moving down. Such a non-confirmation is encouraging in its implications, as the markets are still taking seriously the transitory inflation messaging in light of the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI. Seems like we‘re in for a few relatively stable weeks of Treasury yields undeperforming inflation expectations before the yield climb returns:
(…) The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Thursday, May 20, 2021
Gold Rebounds After Fainting Due to Inflation Spike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold recovered after a downward response to the surge in inflation. What’s next for the yellow metal?Gold rebounded after an initially bearish reaction to the BLS report showing that inflation soared 4.2% in April year-to-year. This means we have an inflation annual rate doubling the Fed’s target and the highest since the Great Recession as the chart below shows.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
The Growing Market of New Crypto / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Submissions
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Bitcoin CRASH! Nicehash Freezes Withdrawals in Crypto's BLOOD BATH 2021 / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: HGR
The crypto mania bubble has finally BURST! All of the crypto's have gone into a free fall crash led by Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Doge coin and so on, all CRASHING, with exchanges and services halting withdrawals through use of BS press releases such as security hacks, much as I have been warning would happen for several months as to why no one should hold their funds with Nicehash or in any crypto's, transfer to coinbase and SPEND IT, don't HODDLE as many of the noob crypto miners have been doing, now locked into freefalling markets! Where any bounce will prove temporary to what amounts as a new bear market for most crypto's.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Coronavirus was a Test and we FAILED / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: James_Quinn
“The Truth, when you finally chase it down, is almost always far worse than your darkest visions and fears.” ~ Hunter S. Thompson
I think Hunter S. Thompson is being proven right by revelations becoming obvious daily. I’m a natural skeptic, so I rarely believe anything I’m told without verifying facts, analyzing data and understanding the motivation of those making declarations and assertions. For most of my life I thought I generally understood how the world worked.
Doubts about my understanding began to creep into my mind between 2000 and 2008, as I watched my government cover-up the truth about 9-11, use it to institute an Orwellian surveillance state through the Patriot Act, invade Iraq based upon a false narrative of WMD and links to 9/11, and watching those controlling the Federal Reserve create the dot.com bubble and follow it up with a housing bubble – all done to benefit Wall Street banks, billionaires, connected politicians, and Deep State apparatchiks.
The national debt was $5.6 trillion in 2000, the budget was as close to balanced as it had been in decades, the defense budget ($300 billion) was at decades low as there was no major conflicts in the world, and term limits were still a legitimately discussed election issue. If someone was told on January 1, 2000 that in 2021 the national debt was going to hit $30 trillion, with annual deficits of $3 to $4 trillion, a defense budget of $750 billion as war looms on the near-term horizon, and all semblance of governing through legislation to benefit the citizenry had dissipated, they would have laughed, accused you of being a conspiracy nutjob, and said the nation would be a hyperinflationary banana republic with 50% interest rates if any of that came to pass. The truth is always far worse than your darkest visions and fears.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Will Precious Metals Investors Get the Last Laugh? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Financial markets have become a complete joke. From GameStop to Dogecoin to non-fungible tokens (NFTs), a plethora of assets have been pushed to laughable heights with the help of the Federal Reserve’s funny money.
Just about everyone, except for stone-faced Fed officials, seems to be in on the joke.
Dogecoin promoter and billionaire Tesla founder Elon Musk poked fun at cryptocurrencies and the U.S. dollar itself during his hosting duties last weekend on Saturday Night Live.
During the “Weekend Update” segment, Musk appeared in character as a cryptocurrency guru. He admitted Dogecoin began as a joke.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Is This The Most Exciting Healthcare Development Of The Year? / Companies / BioTech
By: FinancialMorningPost
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Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crypto mania bubble has finally BURST! All of the crypto's have gone into a free fall crash led by Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Doge coin and so on, all CRASHING, with exchanges and services halting withdrawals through use of BS press releases such as security hacks, much as I have been warning would happen for several months as to why no one should hold their funds with Nicehash or in any crypto's, transfer to coinbase and SPEND IT, don't HODLE as many of the noob crypto miners have been doing, now locked into freefalling markets!
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Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Stock Market Same Old Song and Dance – Almost / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Pendulum keeps swinging back into the S&P 500 bullish camp, as the Nasdaq rebound was mightily aided by rising long-dated Treasuries while value couldn‘t care less about their direction. Just as sharply the VIX rose, that steeply it retreated over the past two days, hinting that stocks are returning back to the old normal, which means about to go upwards. Option traders didn‘t agree that profoundly, but they aren‘t sending a trustworthy warning sign.
I care more about corporate bond markets returning to life, and the retreating yields once the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI has been digested. The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Given though the mammoth scale of money printing and fiscal injections that surely has the bond vigilantes rolling in their graves, it‘s miraculous that the bond markets aren‘t revolting more, much more. Okay, you may look at it as that the 10-year Treasury yield has more than tripled since August, but the low base (0.5% rate) is distorting the view. Plenty of room still before financial repression enters stage right even more noticeably (we are nowhere near the panic yield levels causing genuine hardship for the S&P 500), but we have time – I am looking for a reprieve in the Treasuries markets, which would help especially the tech sector recovery.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Being a Gold Bull Is Now Far Too Easy - Don’t Be Deceived / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Easy choices lead to a hard life (or at least losses), and because gold’s downside move is delayed, it’s extremely easy to be bullish on gold right now.
It’s easy to get carried away by the day-to-day price action, and it’s even easier to feel the emotions that other market participants are feeling while looking at the same short-term price action. Right now, it’s tempting to be bullish on gold. It’s “easy” to be bullish on gold while looking at what happened in the last 1.5 months. But what’s easy is rarely profitable in the long run.
“Easy choices – hard life. Hard choices – easy life” – Jerzy Gregorek
Let’s get beyond the day-to-day price swings. The Fed has been keeping the interest rates at ultra-low levels for many months, and it has just pledged to keep them low for a long time. The world is enduring the pandemic, and the amount of money that entered the system is truly astonishing. The savings available to investors skyrocketed. The USD Index has been beaten down from over 100 to about 90. And yet, gold is not at new highs. In fact, despite the 2020 attempt to rally above its 2011 high, gold’s price collapsed, and it invalidated the breakout above these all-important highs. It’s now trading just a few tens of dollars higher than it had been trading in 2013, right before the biggest slide of the recent years.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Gold Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Upside Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first portion of this research article, I highlighted the correlation between Gold and the US Dollar as well as the correlation between the US Dollar and the EURUSD and JPYUSD. The purpose of this example was to highlight the different phases of US Dollar appreciation vs depreciation compared to the EURUSD/JPYUSD. The EURUSD and JPYUSD are often compared to the US Dollar as major global currencies. Therefore, when the US Dollar moves into a depreciation phase, we expect to see the EURUSD and JPYUSD move into an appreciation phase.
How this correlated to the price of Gold and the phases of advancing vs declining precious metals is simple to understand. Gold will stall, or more broadly downward, while the US Dollar is within an advancing/appreciation phase. Gold will move higher or begin an upward trend bias when the US Dollar begins to generally weaken or moves into a declining/depreciation phase.
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