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Commodities

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Craig Hemke: Ignore the Elliott Wave “Buffoons” Calling for a Gold Crash / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the very best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets that you will find anywhere.

Craig, welcome back, and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Craig Hemke: Mike, my friend, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for the invite.

Mike Gleason: Absolutely. Love to get you back on and thanks for the time. Well, the recent smash in the metals prices was reminiscent to what we saw in the markets in 2016, at least in silver. Prices ran higher up to about $20 an ounce and then got hammered back down where they continued trading in a range between about $14 and $17 until this year's breakout. Do you think we'll see the metals once again be put back into their box here or do you think it will be different this time around? I guess that's the million-dollar question for silver bugs, what do you think?

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Stock Market 6 Month Trend Forecast Conclusion - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 05, 2019

The True Causes Behind the Yield Curve Inversion and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

By now, everyone and their brother has heard about the yield curve inversion. How come it has inverted and how much should we read into it? Is it really such a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession? Let’s dig into the true causes behind the inversion and find out what its meaning for the gold market.

Is the yield curve inverted? Well, it depends. Although the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 3-month Treasuries has normalized somewhat in September, it remained in negative territory. Meanwhile, after a short dip below zero in August, the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasuries spent time in positive territory, as the chart below shows.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 05, 2019

Strategies on how to be a Successful CFD Trader / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Submissions

...

 


Commodities

Saturday, October 05, 2019

Gold Stocks Correction Underway / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are correcting.  They’ve been sliding and drifting lower on balance since their powerful recent upleg peaked a month ago.  Corrections are normal and healthy in ongoing bull markets, rebalancing sentiment to pave the way for the next upleg.  They also offer the best buy-low opportunities seen inside secular uptrends.  Deploying capital in gold stocks after corrections multiplies wealth-building potential.

While most people dread corrections, battle-hardened speculators and investors embrace them.  They make prices oscillate around their bull-market uptrends, greatly expanding their overall travel.  The more price movement, the more potential upside to ride.  Today’s gold-stock bull proves this.  Consider it in terms of the most-popular gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.

This gold-stock bull was born in mid-January 2016, from the depths of despair after a secular gold bear.  Over the next 6.4 months, GDX skyrocketed 151.2% higher in an epic maiden upleg!  That initial early-August-2016 peak has yet to be eclipsed, but GDX came within 1.2% as this latest upleg peaked in early-September 2019.  So the maximum potential gains by buying and holding this entire bull are still 151.2%.

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Politics

Saturday, October 05, 2019

Climate Change When the Levee Breaks / Politics / Climate Change

By: Richard_Mills

In John Steinbeck’s epic novel ‘The Grapes of Wrath’, a poor family of tenant farmers and thousands of other “Oakies” hitch up their wagons to make the trek to California in search of work and a better life. A savage drought had turned their farms into fields of dust. 

Current growing conditions are nothing like those described in Steinbeck’s book, but US farming states are certainly seeing the effects of climate change - particularly with respect to irrigation.  

As the earth warms, wet areas become wetter and dry areas drier. Less rainfall means less new water to refill aquifers, nature’s vast underground lakes of fresh water that thousands of American farmers, and millions worldwide, draw water from for drinking and watering crops.  

A study by the University of Arizona predicts that climate change in the US will pull groundwater out of four important aquifers, faster than they can be recharged. 

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 05, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank ‘Guarantees’ Dow Will Not Sink Below 26k / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

Today is an important day for people like myself. I have maintained for years that the Federal Reserve Bank is an evil institution and their only goal is enslavement of humans. They accomplish this task with multiple weapons. Their best weapon is the stupidity of those humans who don’t seem to understand any more about their world than does the burrow harnessed to a grinding wheel. They just keep going round and round and the only person getting anywhere is the owner of the grinding wheel. That would be the Fed.

Another powerful weapon they use is the stock market. As long as the Dow continues to advance higher, no one will question how it got there. And, as long as the Dow advances, the idiots that invest their money will continue to exude arrogance of their investment knowledge. At the end of the day, investors know nothing about anything. The Dow Jones Industrial average is now simply a carrot to keep the burrow walking in a circle.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 04, 2019

The Russell and Transportation Tell A Completely Different Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We’ve been writing about the broader US stock market for many months – highlighting the Pennant/Flag formations that have continued to set up since early 2018.  Sometimes, the keys to really understanding what is transpiring behind the scenes in the US markets is to pay attention to various market segments and to consider applying some “outside the box” thinking. Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Our research team would like to fall back into price analysis using the Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index as “additional measures” that mirror the US major stock market in terms of price, volatility and future price targets.  The interesting facet of this type of analysis is that we can study any symbols we want and apply the different techniques, patterns and insight we learn to the total scope of the broader US stock market.  Thus, we can attempt to identify how and when certain price actions may become more intense or volatile while comparing how our predictive modeling systems and other tools share unique outcomes.

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Economics

Friday, October 04, 2019

Confidence Drives the Economy and Trump’s Trade War Is Killing It / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

Economic growth isn’t random.

It comes from individual decisions to buy, sell, or do nothing. We all make dozens every day.

Corporate CEOs and CFOs make bigger decisions, like whether thousands of people get hired or a factory gets built.

That means, the economy generally does better when business leaders see growth opportunities, and worse when they don’t.

Right now, the latter is happening. We know why, too: President Trump’s erratic trade policies make long-term planning difficult, to say the least.

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Commodities

Friday, October 04, 2019

ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening.  It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members.  Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out  accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below).  At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019.  Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019.  Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, October 04, 2019

Investing Money? Why You Need a Reputable Accountant / Personal_Finance / Taxes

By: Sumeet_Manhas

As an investor, you are probably always busy worrying about where to set up your next shop, how much money you should pay your employees, who you can trust as your manager which car you plan on buying or maybe where you plan to go for your next vacation.

Important as these worries may be to you, are they really all that you should be thinking about?

Filing taxes is probably one of the most annoying bits of their lives that most people DON’T look forward to, and some equally forget or ignore to do so only to be haunted in their sleep by the debt collector.
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Commodities

Friday, October 04, 2019

Stumbling Manufacturing and Rising Gold – Now or Later? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

American manufacturers are scoring ever deeper recessionary readings. We haven’t seen this bad an ISM Manufacturing reading in quite a while. Can it take the broader economy with it? And what about gold – when exactly will it get its shine?

ISM Manufacturing Index Drops To Disturbingly Low Level

The September ISM Manufacturing Index registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. It’s not only below 50 percent, which indicates a contraction, but it’s actually the lowest level since June 2009, when the Great Recession formally ended, as the chart below shows.

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Commodities

Friday, October 04, 2019

Silver Eyes Fourth Quarter Rebound / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter the often favorable fourth quarter trading season with the potential to reinvigorate their major uptrends.
Despite posting impressive gains in the third quarter, gold and (especially) silver finished it on a downbeat note.

On Monday, sellers smashed silver spot prices down 3.6% to test the $17.00/oz. level.

The disappointing finish to the month and the quarter does raise the possibility that momentum selling could continue to drag prices lower in the near term. However, quarter-end profit taking and portfolio shuffling by institutional futures traders could also work in favor of an immediate price bounce.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nick_Barisheff

Before making an investment decision, every investor should understand true inflation. But what is true inflation? Currently, inflation is measured using a floating basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continues to understate true inflation.

Two useful tools for determining true inflation figures are John Williams’s Shadow Statistics and the Chapwood Index.  John Williams, a renowned economist, provides excellent insights about the severity of misstated inflation rates. Using a fixed basket from 1980 to compare to today’s prices determines that inflation is actually 9.46%, not 1.75% as represented by the CPI.  Exhibit A provides a visual interpretation of discrepancies between reported inflation and true inflation.

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Companies

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Thomas Cook's Fall from Grace - A Cautionary Tale for the Entire Global Economy / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: EWI

Since its very first 11-mile train tour on July 5, 1841, the Thomas Cook travel company has been taking adventure-seekers around the world, from river cruises down the Nile (a.k.a. "Cook's Canal"), railcars up to the mouth of Mount Vesuvius, and spaceships to the surface of the moon! (Between 1950 to 1996, Cook's "Moon Registry" had a 100,000-flight manifest).

But on September 23, 2019, Thomas Cook filed for one of the most dismantling bankruptcies in recent history, shuddering the world's oldest travel firm and leaving hundreds of thousands of travelers high and dry. The stranding prompted the UK's largest-ever peace time repatriation effort, a 10-day long, 60 million-pound rescue effort coined Operation Matterhorn.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Dow Jones may have already bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq have further to go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Have you been following our research?  Were you prepared for this move like we were?  Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets?  What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?

Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened.  In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES.  On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”.  On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

A Simple, But Elegant Resolution In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

Originally published on Sat Sep 28 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: With the various charts we track unable to complete 5 waves up off the low struck two weeks, it would seem that we can count all of those charts as having just completed a corrective rally top, with more pullback likely to be seen. In fact, this is primarily why I have been stressing that I was treating the last rally as a corrective one until otherwise proven by the market.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

When Will the Turnaround in Gold Likely Come? Implications for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday’s analysis, we emphasized that even though a big decline in gold is already underway, it’s likely that it won’t be a straight move down and there will be periodic corrections. Moreover, we provided price targets from which the bounce could start. Based on the circumstances, it might even be a tradable move. In today’s analysis, we’re going to show you that there are signals suggesting that the turnaround might start relatively soon – during this month.

But first, let’s take a look at the most recent price changes.

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Economics

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Economics Is Like Quantum Physics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

I often say a writer is nothing without readers. I am blessed to have some of the world’s greatest. Your feedback never fails to inspire and enlighten me.

My last week’s That Time Keynes Had a Point letter brought many more comments than usual. Apparently Keynes is still provocative 73 years after his death, no matter what you say about him.

But my real point was about the twisted economic thought that is having dangerous effects on us all. And we can’t blame it just on Keynes.

Today I want to share some of the feedback I received, add a few thoughts, and then show you some real-world consequences that are only getting worse. But first, let me wax philosophic for a minute.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Deflation or Inflation: Gold Doesn't Care / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss recession, central bank panic and an outrageous gold price.

In our view, gold investors should settle back with some popcorn and enjoy the coming fireworks, which will include the best gold bull market ever, with all the volatility that implies. We see new all-time highs just around the corner. The challenge is to take a position and stay the course. Central banks are about to pay for decades of bad policy and gold will reap the dividends.

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