Thursday, April 04, 2019

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In March, the World Gold Council released the newest edition of its Investment Update. What can we learn from the publication? Let’s examine the most recent history of Fed tightening and loosening with respect to its effect on gold prices.

Is Fed’s Dovish Turn Positive for Gold?

The WGC has recently published the new Investment Update about the effects of monetary policy on gold. The main finding is that, historically speaking, when the US monetary policy turns from being tight into a neutral stance, the price of the yellow metal increases, although this effect is not always immediate. Indeed, the gold’s reaction to the March Fed’s U-turn was initially rather muted, as the chart below shows.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Gold and Silver Are Presenting A Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

While so many were getting so bullish of the metals market over the last few months, my work was telling me that we were not likely going to be seeing a major break out just yet. So, I have been waiting patiently for a good set up for another long trade.

But, during my wait, I have seen extremes in sentiment again. At the highs, the extremes were quite bullish. And, now, the fear is starting to creep back into the market.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Why Are The Markets Ignoring The US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research continues to support a Bullish price bias over the next 30+ days, very likely reaching to new all-time highs again, before June/July 2019.  For many months, other researchers have continued to predict “doom and gloom” with warnings of Treasury yield inversions, global collapse events, and other crisis events.  Yes, we believe continued price rotation will drive future price swings and they could be volatile moves – yet we believe any crisis event will actually become an incredible opportunity for long traders to BUY into the markets at extreme lows.

Recently, our researchers focused on OIL and the Transportation Index as key elements suggesting this upside move is far from over.  Oil has moved from below $55 ppb to well above $60 ppb.  We believe this move will continue higher to target the $64 ppb level were resistance is likely to be found.  We do believe that some price rotation in Oil is likely to happen in the Summer months – when travel increases and Summer blend gas hits the markets.  Winter has been uniquely difficult this year and the rise in Oil prices, where OPEC and foreign market events have attempted to push prices above $50 ppb, is warranted given global economic activities.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Gold Market Confusion Reigns (Or What to Do When Nothing Makes Sense) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger discusses the pitfalls of market reversals and forecasting. As I reach end-of-week, end-of-month book-squaring, where all of my urgent e-mails and all of my myopic missives and all of my topical tweets are summarized in once terse and quite concise "Monthly P&L," I am astounded at the most recent example of how masterfully the Gold Cartel works in suckering investors into a false sense of comfort and misplaced complacency.

On March 25, just before noon, I sent out the chart of Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) under the title of "New Idea," with the base case being a technical setup at the $14.00-14.10 level that was shaping up to be a pure, textbook break-out from three prior tops in this range dating back to October. I was buying the May $12 calls for $2.15 (50% position) on the assumption that, despite the "less-than-ideal"buy signal I got on March 6, there was a decent trade in this single stock idea, and a pretty easy shot to the $17-18 area.

I was so excited that I rang up my friend and superb technical analyst David Chapman, and asked, "Chappie, pull up Barrick and tell me if I am crazy. "To which he immediately said, "You are—I hate that stock!" However, after looking at the chart, he agreed that GOLD had indeed "broken out," and that it would surely imply a pop to the "$16, 17, 18"range without too much trouble. (He also said he wouldn't buy it "out of principle," making him both honorable and smart.)

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Enjoy the Stocks Rally While It Lasts, But Don’t Be Fooled About What’s Coming Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible…

That is the environment in which the economy is weakening, but investors are pouring into risk assets based on hopes that Central Banks will engage in more stimulus.

This is precisely what happened in the late ‘90s as well as in late 2007-early 2008.

Will the outcome be different this time?

In the near-term, traders will gun the market to new all-time highs. We’re too close for them not to. And until institutions start selling in droves again, we’re in a “trader’s games” market.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

“Safe” Stocks Are No Longer Safe in the Age of Disruption - Amazon Example / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

Imagine losing 20% of your nest egg in the market.

For many folks it’s just gut-wrenching. So investors often pay giant premiums to buy stocks they believe are “safe.”

You probably know that fast-growing stocks in exciting industries may be pricey. But boring, slow-growing stocks are often expensive, too—if they’re perceived as safe.

And while you might not realize it, there’s a good chance you’re paying through the nose to keep your money safe.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Euro Dollar Price Bottoming Setup / Currencies / Euro

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Euro Futures chart is highlighting recent support and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems are suggesting that a current support zone may be setting up for a decent upside move to near 1.15.  Momentum has stalled to the downside after the Brexit kerfuffle.  It is our opinion that this move to near 1.125 will likely hold as support and prompt an upside price move towards the 1.15 price level.

Volatility within the ZE is normal and this type of price rotation appears to continue.  An upside bottom/base near 1.125 may prompt a larger upside price swing in the Euro Futures because it relates a “higher low” price formation following Fibonacci Price Theory.  This set would indicate that a “lower low” attempt has failed and would suggest that the Euro Futures price would now attempt a new Higher High (above 1.155).

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Trump Readies Shake-up of Fed Banking Cartel / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Establishment journalists, establishment economists, and establishment politicians are freaking out. It seems they can’t cope with the prospect of an outspoken monetary reformer potentially becoming the next member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

President Donald Trump announced recently he would nominate longtime free-market advocate and close political ally Stephen Moore to a currently vacant seat at the Fed.

“Trump’s choice of former campaign adviser Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve Board is stirring misgivings among some bankers,” reports Politico.

“Economists are furious,” according to QZ. “The news has been met with a heady combination of derision, bafflement, and general hullaballoo, with Moore variously described as ‘a loyalist, not an expert’.”

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Avoid This Dividend Trap That Can Cut Your Portfolio in Half / Companies / Dividends

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : In its last meeting, the Fed made it clear it would keep interests rates low for a while.

That’s good news for dividend investors.

You see, when interest rates are low, so are government bond yields.

That forces income investors to look for higher yields elsewhere. And history shows that many will flock into dividend stocks.

But in the search for higher yields, many investors fall prey to what I call the “dividend trap.”

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum Relative Strength Ratios Hit Rare Extremes / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

It’s possible last week’s cascading selling rout in palladium ended its multi-year bull market. The formerly white-hot metal lost more than $200/oz (but is beginning to rebound).

For now, however, palladium prices remain in a long-term uptrend above the bullishly aligned 20-week and 50-week moving averages – and physical supply remains tight.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Cash Usage Down, Gold Correspondingly Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In February, the World Gold Council released the newest edition of Gold Investor. What can we learn from the report? Let’s discuss gold’s role in the onslaught of the cashless society, its role as a portfolio diversifier, reverse asset and source of liquidity.

Rogoff Wants Cashless Society, but Appreciates Gold

As a lot has happened recently, we didn’t have time to analyze the latest Gold Investor edition. Let’s do it today, starting with the cover article about Rogoff’s call for cashless society!

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Credit-impaired Mortgage Decline, but so Have Shorter-term Interest Rates / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

The latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the number of credit-impaired residential mortgages has decreased by 261 to 590 products over the past six months. However, although choice is becoming more limited overall, the average credit-impaired two-year fixed rate mortgage has fallen by 0.13% to 4.36% since October last year while the average three-year rate has fallen by 0.30% over the same period.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

GDX, GDXJ Gold Fundamentals Continue to Improve / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Precious Metals disappointed again.

The miners were leading the metals but the metals broke down from bear flag patterns and that took the miners lower, suggesting an interim top is in place.

The technicals suggest weakness could be ahead for the sector but the fundamentals are finally turning bullish.

Before we get to fundamentals, let’s look at the technicals. The weekly candle chart of GDX and GDXJ is below.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

eBook - Three Ways To Become a Superior Trader / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

Tuesday, April 02, 2019

Waiting for the Russell 2000 to Confirm The Next Big Stock Market Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the US stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation.  Even though the US stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.

Tuesday, April 02, 2019

Progressives in Denial as Mueller Clears Trump / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

All the fanfare with the release of the Mueller Report three page summaries has the corporatist and defiance media in a tizzy. The deranged progressive zombies that follow every word that Rachel 'MAD' Maddow, bleeds out are wiping their own tears that the preordained narrative to bury the Trump movement is premature. Sorry, no celebration for the duped, delusional dregs in search of the most dangerous obstacle to their Marxist redistribution wonderland. The hate machine that trashes all things Trump has perfected the 'Big Lie'. Accepting all the news that is unfit to print or the social media trolls which reinforce the 'Fake News' propaganda that the enlightened leftist cable toadies read off their Teleprompters, is like overdosing on a feel good drug before the inevitable crash.

Tuesday, April 02, 2019

Why Is the Fed Paying So Much Interest to Banks? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Ellen_Brown

“If you invest your tuppence wisely in the bank, safe and sound, Soon that tuppence safely invested in the bank will compound, And you’ll achieve that sense of conquest as your affluence expands In the hands of the directors who invest as propriety demands.” — “Mary Poppins,” 1964

When “Mary Poppins” was made into a movie in 1964, Mr. Banks’ advice to his son was sound. The banks were then paying more than 5% interest on deposits, enough to double young Michael’s investment every 14 years.

Now, however, the average savings account pays only 0.10% annually—that’s one-tenth of 1%—and many of the country’s biggest banks pay less than that. If you were to put $5,000 in a regular Bank of America savings account (paying 0.01%) today, in a year you would have collected only 50 cents in interest.

Tuesday, April 02, 2019

Inverted Yield Curve Fears Are Early / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: John_Mauldin

Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill.
The inversion set off alarm bells and US stocks fell sharply. While concerns are reasoned, the alarm bells may be premature.

Inversion is an historically reliable but early recession indicator. The yield curve isn’t saying recession is imminent, although it’s likely.

Tuesday, April 02, 2019

The 3 Best ETFs to Profit from the Global Slowdown / Companies / Investing 2019

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : “We haven’t seen our sales drop this quickly since 2008.”

That’s a quote from a top sales and marketing executive at one of the largest companies in the world. I met her a couple of months ago in Argentina.

I can’t share the company name, but every one of you has bought one of their products.

Their outlook for sales is rough. In fact, she told me that they are seeing a major slowdown globally. And the economy is slowing rapidly.

This company is a perfect barometer for economic health. But you don’t have to have my contact’s word for it.

Monday, April 01, 2019

How to Invest in Artificial Intelligence Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my latest analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series that warns to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when cutting edge machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why I did not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!

If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2022.