Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: EWI
By Murray Gunn and Brian WhitmerThe pinhole puncture in the global "Fintech" bubble keeps growing, despite drastic attempts to seal it shut. The most recent and radical attempt occurred on February 18, when BaFin, Germany's financial regulator, issued a temporary short-selling ban in Wirecard after its shares plunged 40% in less than three weeks. Wrote one news source, "Germany bans speculative attacks on Wirecard stock", as if those shorting the market were wielding pitch forks and lobbing actual threats against the stock's upside.
Incredibly, vilifying short sellers is as old as the market itself. The first short-selling ban occurred in 1610, after the Dutch East India Company crashed. Notorious short-seller Isaac Le Maire was barred from the market, leaving Amsterdam a pariah. In the 1790s, Napoleon Bonaparte charged short sellers with treason during the financial chaos of the French Revolution.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures / Commodities / Palladium
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear a tremendous interview with Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig weighs in again and offers a concise and clear explanation on what’s been happening in the broken and rigged silver futures markets. And also tells us why he sees 2019 being a similar setup to what we saw in gold and silver back in 2010 and 2011 when the metals went on an historic run. Don’t miss a fantastic interview with Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.
Markets got roiled this week on some downbeat economic reports and a surge in the U.S. dollar.
The Dollar Index broke out to a 21-month high on Thursday after the European Central Bank came out swinging with more stimulus measures. The ECB indicated it intends to leave ultra-low interest rates in place at least through early 2020. That coupled with bleak new forecasts for European economic growth helped drag down the euro and give life to the dollar on foreign exchange markets.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits / Economics / Recession
By: Dan_Amerman
If there is another recession in the next 1-2 years, then the Fed is highly likely to respond by swiftly moving Fed Funds rates back down to zero percent.
One likely result is that millions of investors will lose 83% or more of their future income over a period of years.
The money won't all actually be lost, however. Instead, much of it will be brought forward in time and passed through to a different group of investors as profits - in concentrated form.
In this analysis, we will focus on understanding how an unintentional - but necessary - byproduct of the Fed's dilemma and known plans when we enter the next recession, will be to strip wealth from some investors, and to bring that wealth forward in time to be "caught" by other investors.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime / Economics / Phillippines
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the Aquino era, the focus was on financial flows, which rested on a strong peso. In the Duterte era, it is on the huge investment drive, which can live with a weaker currency. The peso’s political economy is shifting.Recently, international media have released contradictory peso reports. But the phenomenon is not new. For instance, Bloomberg’s Ditas Lopez first attributed the peso’s decline to Duterte two months before the actual election (April 27, 2016). Yet, after the election, the peso rose for weeks beating forecasts so that by late August 2016 even Bloomberg had to admit that he currency had completed the “best performance in Asia this month.”
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With much fanfare Britain's subservient Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday rushed to Strasbourg to hold a theatrical press conference with Junker to announce a solution to the Irish Back Stab deal, one that seeks to lock the UK permanently in the European Union via Northern Irelands land border that the EU and Southern Ireland have been using as a means of either seeking to keep the UK permanently locked in the EU or to annex Northern Ireland from the UK by shifting the EU border with the UK into the middle of the Irish sea.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Gold Price Chart Feast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: readtheticker
If the central economic planners (CEP) lose control and the fiat monetary balance is broken, where do you hide! In the most recent years the pendulum as held firm on the side of the CEPs and central bank put (Greenspan Put, Bernanke Put, Yellen Put, Powell Put [just]) was (and is) a real thing. Now in 2019, after being sold the story the easy monetary policy can end and return to normal. The current Fed Chairman Powell even suggested this would see the US 10 yr bond near 4% while they sold down the $4T FED balance sheet at $5OBN a month, while suggesting the US economy would not even notice.
Monday, March 11, 2019
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Initial rally has come to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, March 11, 2019
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It was a tough week for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P falling 5 days in a row. The S&P is finally starting to make a somewhat sizable pullback, although this pullback happened later than we expected. Most pullbacks are start at the 50% retracement level – this one started at the 78.6% level, which proves that the short term is always extremely hard to predict.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
March 8th, 2019 may gain some level of infamy over the next few decades. There were two big numbers released on this day, the current Chinese economic data and the US Jobs data for February 2019. Both numbers fell drastically lower than analysts expected and the global stock markets dropped in pre-market trading by more than 1%. Yet, something very interesting transpired through the trading day – a recovery rally.
The Chinese economic data was particularly devastating. It leads our researchers to ask a very critical question, “is this going to be an orderly contraction or is this contraction going to extend into more chaos?” Our research team believes the economic contraction in China will extend out into much of Asia and nations participating in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) over the next 3~6+ months. We believe a natural progression of “protectionist processes” will begin to take place throughout many of these nations as the money spigot from China dries up. We believe this credit contraction and economic downturn will result in an extended repositioning of priorities, assets, and valuations throughout most of SE Asia and India. It could extend into certain areas in Europe and Arabic nations.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
Two months ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell set off a market panic.
He suggested the FOMC would do what it thinks is right and let asset prices go where they may.
They promised at least two if not three more rate hikes in 2019. The stock market fell out of bed.
Fast forward to now. The Fed has given up its tightening dreams and might even loosen policy. It is even (gasp!) losing its fear of inflation.
The problem is that preventing small “crises” on a regular basis eventually causes a very large crisis.
Monday, March 11, 2019
Is the Stock Market Trend From December 2018 Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
The recent price action we have seen this past week, potentially has the makings of a reversal in progress. Some world stock markets are showing an outside weekly bar reversal pattern, which is a strong pattern to support further weakness.Looking at a number of highly correlated markets, they are showing a very similar pattern. I favor an impulse wave (5 wave decline) is in progress, an up-down sequence is still needed to develop a 5 wave decline from their respective swing highs. If we can count 5 waves to end an impulse wave from last weeks high, a bounce thereafter in 3 waves would support a move lower and offer a selling opportunity.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is truly in a panic.
Let’s take a big picture perspective of the last year or so.
Throughout 2018, the Fed claimed it could normalize policy (raise rates and shrink its balance sheet). Heck, the Fed didn’t just claim this, it was supremely confident of it.
Indeed, the Fed was still pushing this narrative as late as August, when most of the Emerging Market space and many economically sensitive asset classes had already collapsed 30%.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Turkey Holiday Bazaar Extreme Jewelry Price Haggling - Fethiye Market / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.
The market sells virtually everything under the sun, food, fruit, sweets, electronics, bags, all sorts of bags, trinkets, shoes, jewellery and clothes, tons of clothes, from the mainstay for tourists t-shirt's tons and tons of t-shirts to the local traditional garments.
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
Are You Ready for the Next Big Move in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you were following our research, you would have known that Gold had reached a short-term peak in February. On Feb 19th the day gold posted a huge gain for the day and everyone was bullish and feeling like million bucks I did a radio show with HoweStreet’s Jim Goddard and said that strong day and overly positive sentiment was the going to be the top, which it was – Listen Here.
We had been advising our members that Gold would likely retrace below $1300 possibly beeper by and mid-April. Our advanced Adaptive Learning price modeling systems had warned us that Gold would likely setup a price rotation before the next move higher back in January 2019. This is what you need to know about the next 4+ weeks in Gold.
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
Taylor Wimpey Reports £811m in Profits boosted by Help-to-Buy / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The housing market slow down many feared resulting from the uncertainty of Brexit and been quelled by the United Kingdom’s low mortgage rates and its help-to-buy program. Housebuilders across the country have reported profits this year including Taylor Wimpey, and that signals a solid start to 2019.Taylor Wimpey, the third largest builder in Britain, reported pre-tax profits of £810.7 million for the 2018 year on 15,275 house built. This was an increase of 19% and saw its shares rise by 3%, and that saw them becoming one of the top on the FTSE 100.
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
SPX Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The widely-held mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets recently finished reporting their Q4’18 financial results. Because the tenor of stock markets changed radically last quarter, this latest earnings season is more important than usual. An extreme monster bull market suddenly rolled over into a severe near-bear correction in Q4. How major corporations fared offers insights into whether a young bear is upon us.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years. Most big companies logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s. Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
US Retail Sales Panic Data Could Be Just a Glitch / Economics / Retail Sector
By: John_Mauldin
Recession antennae popped up everywhere on February 14.
The Commerce Department reported retail sales fell 1.2% in December. It was the worst month-over-month decline since 2009:
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Draghi Won’t Send a Rate Hike Gift to the Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ECB eased its monetary stance. It launched another round of cheap loans to banks and promised to keep interest rates unchanged this year. It means that Draghi will not hike during his presidency. What does it all mean for the gold market?
ECB Unveils New Monetary Stimulus in Response to Slowdown
The ECB left its interest rates unchanged. But it pushed out the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike until 2020 at the earliest. As we can read in the monetary policy statement.
The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
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