Tuesday, February 19, 2019
UK Retirement Interest-only Mortgages Start to Take Off / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
It is almost a year since the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) reclassified retirement interest-only mortgages (RIOs) in March 2018, and despite a slow start, two new providers have joined the sector in the past week, taking the total to 12.
After being regulated under equity release rules and regulations, the measure to make RIOs standard mortgages was introduced in response to demographic and economic changes, and to promote more options for older borrowers who may arrive at the end of their interest-only mortgage term and have nowhere to turn.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Why Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious Going Forward / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The one interesting facet of the various research posts our team continues to digest is the continued bearish sentiment that exudes from some analysts. It appears these technical gurus have become married to the concept that global economic issues will crash the US stock market in the near future. We have to give them some credit though. We wanted to take a few minutes of your time to try to highlight how and why we believe these technical gurus are making these points so clearly now and why we believe there are multiple catalysts that they are simply failing to comprehend.
Our team of researchers continues to learn from other skilled researchers, clients, and technicians. Every time we read some news item or someone’s research post, we don’t take the research with a pretense that “these researchers are wrong in their conclusions”. We start off with the pretense that “maybe these people are highlighting something we missed – let’s investigate it”. Thus, our quest is never-ending in the search for greater knowledge and practical application of price theory and technical analysis.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
The Corporate Debt Bubble Is Strikingly Similar to the Subprime Mortgage Bubble / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
By Robert Ross : “Housing prices in the US never go down.”
Just about everyone in America believed that in the mid-2000s.
A limited amount of buildable land and a growing population would keep housing demand strong.
So, house prices will continue to rise.
That was the thinking, anyway.
Even some of America’s brightest minds—like former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—jumped on the stable housing bandwagon.
Monday, February 18, 2019
Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Dan_Amerman
The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop increasing interest rates. The second pivot is to stop unwinding the Fed balance sheet.
While the interest rate pause is getting the most attention - the balance sheet pause could be the most important one for investors over the coming years.
As explored herein, the impact of pausing the unwinding the balance sheet is to create a new floor at about $4 trillion in Federal Reserve assets. And if the business cycle has not been repealed and there is another recession - the Fed fully intends to go back to quantitative easing, potentially creating more trillions of dollars to be used for market interventions, and to stack another round of balance sheet expansion right on top of the previous round.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
UK Savings Market Recovers Six Months on From Base rate Rise / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Savings Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, reveals that the savings market has taken a full six months to price in the 0.25% base rate rise from August 2018 and for the number of products that beat base rate to return to pre-rise levels.
In August 2018, 74% of the savings market beat 0.50%, however on the day base rate rose to 0.75%, the proportion of accounts that beat base rate (0.75%) fell to 66%. After six months of recovery, the market is reaching pre-rise levels, at 72%. Still, over a quarter (28%) of the savings market today do not pay above 0.75%, so there is still more room for improvement.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
Get ready for the Stock Market Breakout Pattern Setup II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Get ready for one of the most complicated price pattern setups we’ve seen in 4~5 years. Within this multi-part article, we’re highlighting many aspects of our predictive modeling solutions, as well as some very clear patterns that we believe, are tell-all investors to prepare for the next big move. This is the second part of our research, please take a minute to read PART I of this article.
Now for the fun part, lots of charts and a few new predictions…
Recently, the YM (the Dow Futures Contracts) have begun an upside price breakout that we believe is setting up for an incredible price pattern. We’ve been suggesting that capital will focus on certain sectors over the past few months (Finance, Technology, Blue-Chips, and Mid-Caps). We believe the safety provided by these US stocks have become a critical component for many global investors. Thus, we believe the YM, Transports, and sector analysis are critical for skilled traders.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
It's Blue Skies For The Stock Market As Far As The Eye Can See / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
We have all heard it. Many times through history, the hubris of analysts, economists, and market participants has been on display when markets rally extremely strongly. In fact, such hubris often accompanies major market tops. And, history has taught us that most of them are quite severely near sighted.
Allow me to show you some examples.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) – Bullish Flag Breakout Higher / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) is an electronic commerce company offering online stores and retail point of sale platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Merchants can design, set up and manage their shops using a single interface which make is an easy and attractive way to start up a business in few clicks.
E-commerce industry been around for almost 3 decades, but the recent 10 years saw a significant growth and with new technologies it took it to the next level which has transformed the processes of buying and selling goods.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
IBM Stock Long Term Bullish Trend and Elliott Wave Cycles / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly I would like to mention Big Blue has been around for over 100 years since it was founded. I have price data that goes back to the 1960’s when the stock price was around three dollars. The point of this article is to show what Elliott Wave technical analysis suggests will happen before the stock price resumes the larger uptrend.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
Stock Market Correction is Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Initial rally is coming to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, February 17, 2019
Iran's Death Spiral -- 40 Years And Counting / Politics / Iran
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Today, Supreme Leader Khamenei and the mullahs celebrated the 40th year of Iran’s Islamic Revolution. With the exception of the Revolutionary Guard and “the beards,” as the hard core have been dubbed, few in Iran have much to celebrate. In the economic sphere alone, Iranians have been in a forty-year death spiral. And, let us not forget the estimated 750,000 Iranians who were slaughtered in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988).
Like the slaughter in that bloody war, the Iranian rial has been slaughtered, too. At the time of the Revolution, the rial fetched 70.5 per U.S. dollar. Today, it takes 122,500 rials to get a greenback. Thanks to the Revolution, the value of the rial has been decimated. The recent picture of the rial’s black market (read: free market) plunge is shown in the chart below.
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Sunday, February 17, 2019
Venezuela's Opposition Is Playing With Fire / Politics / Venezuela
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The Maduro government has put Venezuela in Satan’s record books. That hellish distinction is because Venezuela is in the grip of one of the world’s 58 episodes of hyperinflation. Hyperinflation occurs when the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%/mo. for at least 30 consecutive days. Of the 58 episodes of hyperinflation, Venezuela’s inflation rate is middling: it ranks as the 23rd most severe episode. Today, I measured Venezuela’s annual rate of inflation at 132,743%/yr. (see the chart below). This contrasts sharply with the National Assembly’s lying statistic of 1,698,488%/yr. for December 2018 and the IMF’s absurd forecast of 10,000,000%/yr. for December 2019.
Sunday, February 17, 2019
Dow Jones Gann Angle Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
Let's review the Dow Jones Industrial Gann Angles and its secret sauce dominate cycle.
Dow Jones hit upper resistance Gann angle early 2019, a sell of followed, now the bounce works its way through the down ward Gann Angle, a fail at either make or break point will see the bounce sell off, and that may get very interesting!
Sunday, February 17, 2019
Fed Chairman Deceives; Precious Metals Mine Supply Threatened / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com and famous author of The Crash Crouse and his latest book Prosper! joins me to dissect what’s behind the Yellow Vest movement in France and why the mainstream media and those in power simply don’t want you to know what’s really going on there. Chris also tells us which precious metal he most favors right now. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the great Chris Martenson, coming up after this week’s market update.
In a recent speech, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell told some real whoppers. We’ll address his misrepresentations head on, in just a bit.
But first, let’s review this week’s market action. Despite drama in Washington over averting a government shutdown and prompting President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency on the border, nothing too dramatic is happening in the gold market.
Prices are trading in a tight range, coming in essentially unchanged from last Friday’s close. Gold currently trades at $1,316 per ounce.
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Sunday, February 17, 2019
Here We Go – Get ready for the Stock Market Breakout Pattern Setup / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We are writing this post today with a few forward-looking expectations while attempting to warn traders that some extended rotation is likely to enter the markets over the next 30+ days. If you’ve been following our research, you’ll know that we’ve been calling these move months in advance of other researchers and analysts. Our September 17, 2018 research post highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system suggested the US stock markets were poised for a massive price rotation followed by a very unique price setup that we are experiencing now.
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Saturday, February 16, 2019
My Favorite Real Estate Strategies: Rent to Live, Buy to Rent / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Did you read Andrea Riquier’s two articles on Market Watch last year about real estate strategies?Definitely worth it!
The first was “The new housing play: helping priced-out renters become long-distance landlords.”
It was a strategy aimed at people living in unaffordable areas like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, or New York.
Rent in those areas to avoid the high purchase costs and a major bubble burst (when it inevitably comes). Then use your freed-up borrowing power to buy a house in an affordable area where renting for income is more lucrative, and far less risky. We’re talking places with high percentages of single-family rentals, like Detroit, Las Vegas, or Kansas City and a few more listed below.
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Saturday, February 16, 2019
After 8 Terrific Weeks for Stocks, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It’s been a terrific 8 weeks for the stock market. If anything, this proves that in the stock market, an objective investor/trader needs to have a long term bullish bias.
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Saturday, February 16, 2019
Schumer & Sanders Want One Thing: Your Money / Politics / US Politics
By: Rodney_Johnson
Senators Bernie Sanders and Chuck Schumer have proposed legislation that would stop public companies from paying dividends or buying back their shares unless they first meet certain conditions.The senators aren’t worried about viability (companies are financially stable before they send cash back to their shareholders). Instead, they want to verify that companies have done enough to support employees before they give anything back to investors.
That’s not so subtle code for, “Make sure you redistribute wealth before giving anything back.”
The senators make their case by pointing to last year’s tax reform and how much of the corporate windfall was spent on stock buybacks (almost $1 trillion), even as companies refused to invest, closed locations, and fired employees.
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Saturday, February 16, 2019
What Could Happen When the Stock Markets Correct Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
I hate to be so cynical, but the markets love to fool as many people as possible, bulls and bears alike. This is especially true at key turning points and even more so in extreme bubbles like the one we’ve been in since late 1994, with this final phase – and it’s unprecedented QE and tax cuts – since early 2009.This final rally (since 2009) is all “hot air.”
This recovery has been the weakest ever in real GDP, capital spending, employment growth, and productivity (I’ll talk about this in more detail in the upcoming February edition of The Leading Edge).
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Saturday, February 16, 2019
Bitcoin Your Best Opportunity Outside of Stocks / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Harry_Dent
I just gave my second keynote for a major, top-secret crypto conference. It was SO secret, the organizer didn’t disclose the location on the website and only let us know where to travel to at the last minute.These techno visionaries want a bottoms-up world like me, but with total transparency and total privacy! And that’s what Blockchain technologies are all about. In fact, I see that as the next revolution to follow the internet.
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