Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Economic Crisis in Europe; Unpayable Debts, Impending Financial Insolvency / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bob_Chapman
The big question is will Greece succumb to insolvency in November? Our answer is probably not. It should take 3 to 6 months but it is coming no matter how much money and credit is thrown at the problem. The markets on the short-term basis believe it is a coin toss. If the funds are not forthcoming you could see a 60-80 percent haircut on bond losses. If it is 3 to 6 months it will probably be 100%. Many in Europe believe the Merkel-Sarkozy team has a plan that will work, but as yet we do not know what that plan is. In spite of that the euro this past week rallied from $1.32 to $1.38 as the US dollar fell lower.
Saturday, October 15, 2011
U.S. September Retail Sales Noteworthy Pickup, But Q3 Consumer Spending is Tepid / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose 1.1% in September, after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in August (previously reported as unchanged). Strong auto sales (+3.6%) and a 1.2% jump in gasoline sales were only part of the story. Purchases of apparel (+1.3%), furniture (+1.1%), and general merchandise (+0.7%) also advanced in September. In the third quarter, total retail sales increased at an annual rate of 4.5% vs. 4.7% in the second quarter. Excluding gasoline, retail sales move up at annual rate 4.6% in the third quarter vs. 3.1% in the second quarter.
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Bank of England's Quantitative Inflation Bankster's Paradise Inflationary Depression Economy / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England recently hit the panic button again by announcing another print run of £75 billion (electronically), which is in addition to the £200 billion already printed since March 2009. The news has been accompanied by much economic propaganda across the media sphere from the Bank Governor Mervyn King and Politicians including Osbourne and Cameron to the BBC's journalists / pseudo economists virtually all in unison reading from the same script of printing £75 billion being necessary to boost the UK economy in the face of the imminent threat of Recession / Deflation.
Friday, October 14, 2011
This Recession May Be Worse Than the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Barry_Elias
“It is difficult to make any kind of forecasts with any great degree of confidence. In my area it’s got to the point where it’s very hard to say anything... but you’ve got to take a view, that’s what you’re paid for.”
According to a recent CNN report, the above quote was provided by a U.K. financial equity analyst with Oriel Securities. That statement is emblematic of how the financial industry has metastasized into a pathological cancer that mostly transferred and decimated wealth and value, rather than creating it.
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Friday, October 14, 2011
United States and China: International Trade Data Underscore Softening Economic Fundamentals / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade gap of the U.S. economy was virtually unchanged at $45.6 billion in August. Exports of goods and services held steady in August, while imports of goods and services also were almost unchanged. The real trade deficit of goods widened to $47 billion from $46 billion in July, reflecting a drop in exports of goods (-0.7%) and a 0.2% increase in imports of goods. From a year ago, exports of goods rose 6.7% and imports of goods moved up 1.9% (see Chart 5). Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 14, 2011
Cash Rich Firms Will Not Hire and Invest Until Demand Gains Momentum / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Non-financial corporate firms were holding $2.047 trillion in liquid assets in the second quarter of 2011. These liquid assets (Sum of foreign deposits, checkable deposits/currency, time & savings deposits, money market fund shares, security RPs, commercial paper, US government securities, municipal securities, and mutual fund shares) as a percent of short-term liabilities are close to historical highs (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
China Continuing Economic Boom or Bursting Bubble? / Economics / China Economy
By: Casey_Research
In a recent article, How China Ate America’s Lunch, Clif Carothers described what China has accomplished in the last thirty years:
In thirty short years, China was able to accelerate her GDP from $216 billion to $6 trillion. She amassed reserve capital of $3 trillion. She reversed America’s fortunes from the greatest creditor nation to the greatest debtor nation. She gutted America’s factories while creating the world’s largest manufacturing base in her own country. A measure of output that highly correlates to GDP is energy consumption. In June of this year, 2011, China surpassed the United States as the largest consumer of energy on the planet. While the US consumes 19% of the world’s energy, China consumes 20.3%.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Poor Sales Continue to Haunt Small Businesses / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The September survey of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows an improvement in the outlook of small businesses. The Small Business Optimism Index rose to 88.9 in September from 88.1 in August after a string of six straight monthly declines, which is good news.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
How Economic Collapse Will Happen / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Videos
Discussion about how the coming economic collapse will happen, and how to prepare yourself.
First - Imports to the Country increase drastically and exports decrease.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011
The Folly of Economic Forecasting / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Douglas_French
President Obama's mostly forgotten jobs package would reportedly create 1.9 million new jobs, a one-percentage-point drop in the unemployment rate, and goose GDP by two percentage points. That was the prediction of Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. You see, he has a model. He did a simulation, and presto — 1.9 million jobs!
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
How Long Will This Economic Depression Last? Five Key Data Points That Can’t Be Ignored / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mac_Slavo
Living within the realm of a 24 hour news cycle can often make it seem like things really are getting better. On any given day a particular company may report better than expected earnings, the Dow Jones may rise 250 points, and a few thousands more workers than expected were hired into private sector jobs. As a result, we receive a string of positive assessments on the economy, despite the fact that just one day prior we may have had central bankers and IMF advisors suggesting a depressionary collapse was all but inevitable.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Asian Economies, Where Are We Compared to Financial Crisis Sept 15, 2008? / Economics / Asian Economies
By: John_Mauldin
The developed world seems to be focused on Europe, and while the next crisis in indeed brewing there, we must not forget that Asia is a large part of the future and major contributor to world GDP. My friends at GaveKal are based in Hong Kong and have staff in most Asian countries or are in them on a regular basis, so I read their Asian views with interest. Today’s Outside the Box is their latest Five Corners – Asia edition, where they look at China, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as Asian growth, contrasting it to that of the "developed world."
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
AVA Investment Analytics Global Economic Analysis / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
The incompetency of Washington was most recently demonstrated by the debt ceiling drama. Now the dog-and-pony show staged by the ECB, EU and IMF has added to waning consumer and investor sentiment across the globe to create a crisis in confidence. The timing of this charade could not have been worse, as this unnecessary turn of events has hit the global economy during a period when it was predetermined to weaken on its own force due to the depletion of stimulus funds. As a result of these seemingly intentional destructive actions, most of the economic gains made as the result of tax subsidies and bailout funds since the financial crisis of 2008 have been erased.
Monday, October 10, 2011
China Economy Going Bust: Tic Toc / Economics / China Economy
By: Kel_Kelly
China is in the process of allowing its currency to rise. The reason for this is to address the worsening inflation rates in the country. Allowing the yuan to rise will indeed stop, or slow, inflation, but the way this fix works is not the way that is usually assumed. Neither will the effects of this policy be what most observers assume, i.e., just milder inflation. Instead, it will be an outright economic bust.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Hypothetical U.S. Employment and Unemployment Charts from the Atlanta Fed / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are checking out an interesting "what if" post by Dave Altig, senior vice president and research director at the Atlanta Fed. Please consider Two more job market charts
Read full article... Read full article...Payroll employment growth has averaged about 110,000 jobs a month since February 2010, the jobs low point associated with the crisis and recession. This growth level compares, unfavorably, with the 158,000 jobs added per month during the last jobs recovery period from August 2003 (the low point following the 2001 recession) through November 2007 (the month before the recent recession began). One hundred and ten thousand jobs a month compares favorably, however, to the 96,000 job creation pace so far this year.
Sunday, October 09, 2011
The Paradox of Deflation Facing Global Investors / Economics / Deflation
By: David_Knox_Barker
The primary purpose for markets is to allow buyers and sellers to reach a deal, strike a price. Anything that distorts this purpose, leads the world inexorably toward crisis and chaos. Free markets best determine prices based on how many sellers there are of goods, services and assets and how much they have available to sell, and of course how many buyers there are and how much those buyers want to buy and are willing to pay. Truly free markets balance supply and demand. The economic calculation problem means governments cannot determine accurately how to intervene.
Sunday, October 09, 2011
Warning U.S. HyperInflation Ahead / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Seth_Barani
Money Supply M2 has expanded at Warp-9 within the past few months, based on Federal Reserve Data released on Sep.30th. In fact, the ratio of M2 to M1 has set a World Record, exponentially growing to over 5:1 (M2 is near $9.6 Trillion, over 12% growth this year so far, projected to show 15% growth in one year, while M1 has remained constant near $2 Trillion.)
Saturday, October 08, 2011
U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.1% in September, unchanged from August / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.1% in September, unchanged from August. Cycle high jobless rate for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +103,000 jobs in September vs. +57,000 in August. Private sector jobs increased 137,000 after a gain of 42,000 in August. Addition of 99,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of July and August.
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Friday, October 07, 2011
U.S. September Non-Farm Payrolls Report in Pictures / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
A remarkably 'clean' report with the only anomalies being a lower than normal Birth-Death imaginary jobs adjustment from the BLS, which subtracted 43,000 jobs, and a seasonality adjustment that appeared a little on the high side.
An exogenous factor was the addition of 45,000 striking telecommunication workers who returned to their jobs. So the organic jobs growth was weak.
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Thursday, October 06, 2011
The Way Out of Our Economic Mess / Economics / US Economy
By: Terry_Coxon
Terry Coxon, Casey Research writes: "A rock and a hard place" is a long-running theme of Casey Research publications. It refers to the dilemma the US government has wandered into with its continued policy of rescue inflation. The "rock" is what will happen if the Fed pauses for long in printing still more money – the collapse of an economy burdened by an accumulation of mistakes that rescue inflation has been keeping at bay. The "hard place" is the disruptive price inflation that becomes more likely (and likely more severe) with every new dollar the Fed prints to keep the effects of those mistakes suppressed.