Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. May Employment Numbers Show Faults in Recovery / Economics / Employment
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
May’s employment report couldn’t come at a better time. As soon as the Fed officially ends its quantitative easing program, new jobs data shows that the recovery investors have long been waiting for is still out of reach.
At the most topical level, the employment report was dismal – ignoring the obvious manipulation of the figures with birth and death estimates, seasonal but unreliable adjustments, and revisions to the downside that have become frequent with old employment data, there is still a gem to be found tucked deep inside the numbers.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
Different Measures of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Concern about imminent inflation is at the heart of criticism of the Fed's quantitative easing programs. Charts 1 and 2 depict recent trends of much tracked price gauges and the main take away from these charts is that inflation excluding food and energy are contained and higher energy prices have translated into only a less than proportionate increase in core prices.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Destruction of US Manufacturing, Confessions of an Economic Terrorist / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
Just in case anyone has an idea to dispatch seventy-two SEALS by helicopter to deliver me a tap-tap, like they did to that other guy, save your money, I’m a minnow.
If you want to know the real “culprits”, have a look at this chart:
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Deflationary Depression in America: The Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Deflation
By: Bob_Chapman
Wall Street seems to believe the waning recovery in the economy is only temporary and that further recovery is on the way. Such thinking can get you in serious trouble, unless QE3, or its equivalent, is on the way. It is on the way, as we pointed out 13 months ago. The economy cannot live and survive without it otherwise we could be looking at a minus 5% GDP for openers. Incidentally, there are those that believe that unemployment already is as bad as it was during the “Great Depression” years of thep930s. They may be correct, but we believe it was much higher than today’s 22.4% level. If government hadn’t created food stamps, Medicaid, extended unemployment benefits and other benefits, perhaps we could be close to 1930’s levels.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Fed Won't Admit to the Coming Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Despite what U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in his speech at the International Monetary Conference yesterday (Tuesday), it looks very much like we're headed for a double-dip recession.
Indeed, the economic reports of the last week or so demonstrate that the U.S. job machine was never really jump-started after the Great Recession of 2008-09.
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011
The Consumption Bust / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Fred_Sheehan
There is no end to the indicators showing the consumer is up against it. Negative home-equity, incomes, layoffs, food inflation - oh, this is tale of woe. And so, the plaintive cry: "Is this the bottom?" That seems doubtful, actually impossible, given the math.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011
Our Economic Future, Best to Worst Case / Economics / Global Economy
By: Casey_Research
Doug Casey, Casey Research writes: There is a great deal of uncertainty among investors about what the future of the U.S. economy may look like – so I decided to take a stab at what’s likely to happen over the next 20 years. That's enough time for a child to grow up and mature, and it's long enough for major trends to develop and make themselves felt.
Sunday, June 05, 2011
Policymakers Have Made Another Economic Depression Unavoidable / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
Equities markets have been battered all week by bad economic data sending investors piling into "risk free" Treasuries. The Dow Jones slipped 276 points on Wednesday followed by a 41 point loss on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury has ducked below 3 percent repeatedly signally a slowdown that could lead to another recession.
Sunday, June 05, 2011
Towards a Worldwide Inflationary Depression, Collapse of the Anglo-American Empire / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
According to our calculations we have been in an inflationary depression since February of 2009. Everyone looks back on the deflationary depression of the 1930s as a benchmark or a reference. As far as we are concerned the 1930’s depression only ended when the powers behind government arranged another war. Few talk about the recession of the early 1920s, which only lasted two years and was caused by the newly formed Fed, which financed US participation in World War I. They raised interest rates, which enticed citizens to save, which provided money for loans for research and expansion. The Fed, other than raising rates, stayed neutral, as did the Treasury. The result was the recession ended quickly. A bad story with a happy ending, which contributed to the roaring 20s, which the Fed eventually turned into a depression via their interference.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Economic Whiplash, Eurozone Debt Crisis Intolerable Choices, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Worse Than Headlines / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Do you feel as if you are suffering from some sort of economic whiplash? Between focusing on the European crisis (and it is a crisis), then looking at softening data in the US and political turmoil in Japan, not to mention the Middle East, you can be forgiven for feeling like someone just slammed into the back of your "economic recovery car." This week we look at today's US employment numbers, then at a troubling slowing of economic velocity, precisely at a time when it should be rising, and then consider a powerhouse, must-be-read-twice commentary from Martin Wolf on the European situation. Then I will weigh in with some of my own thoughts. Counterintuitively, the holders of certain European debt are being put at further risk by the bailout. (This letter may be a little shorter and take more work than others -which some of you think will improve it - as I am suffering from Caesar's Revenge here in Tuscany, although I am getting better!)
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Railway Revolution Builds China’s Consumer Culture / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Frequent readers of my “Frank Talk” blog and the weekly Investor Alert should be familiar with the story of China’s high speed rails. We’ve previously discussed how China is building the world’s largest network of high speed rails at an incredible speed.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
U.S. Employment Situation Deteriorates as Hiring Slows and Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.1% / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.1% in May vs. 9.0% in April. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +54,000 in May vs. +232,000 in April. Private sector jobs increased 83,000 after a gain of 251,000 in April.
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Friday, June 03, 2011
Fed Economic Stimulus Leads to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Browne
Despite the full onslaught of Keynesian economic policies, including the injection of unheard of sums of printed money into the financial system, state sanctioned accounting tricks, negative real interest rates, massive deficit spending, and debasement of the U.S. dollar, the American economy is slipping back fast towards recession. This week's release of dismal employment figures, in which the entire economy could only muster 54,000 new jobs, confirms that fact.
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Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Unemployment Now at Great Depression Levels, Jobs Destruction is Permanent / Economics / Unemployment
By: Washingtons_Blog
Unemployment During the Great Depression Has Been Overstated and Current Unemployment Understated (We've Now Got Depression-Level Unemployment)
The commonly-accepted unemployment figures for the Great Depression are overstated.
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Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Labor Market Elevated Level of Initial Jobless Claims is Worrisome / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 422,000 during the week ended May 28. The underlying trend of initial jobless claims in the last two months has changed. The number of initial jobless claims has risen to 426,000 during May from 423,000 in April after an extended period of a decelerating trend (see Chart 2). These numbers suggest that labor market conditions remain worrisome. The reversal of initial jobless claims is consistent with the slowing trend visible in other recent economic reports.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 03, 2011
Inflation Expectations Reflect Slowing U.S. Economic Conditions / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Latest economic data (ISM manufacturing survey results for May, auto sales of May, factory production of April, consumer spending of April) underscore the shift in business momentum to a slower pace during the past two months. Consistent with this change, inflation expectations have declined.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011
Africa Riding the Red Dragon / Economics / Africa
By: Richard_Mills
"When I entered the business world, three-fourths of the world was closed - China, Russia, Vietnam, India, most of Africa... In 2010, the entire world is wide open, the developing world is growing twice as fast as the developed world and there's still arguably several billion people out there that will modernize and progress." - Caterpillar's CEO Doug Oberhelman
Thursday, June 02, 2011
U.S. Construction Spending Remains Lackluster / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Total construction outlays rose 0.4% in April, reflecting an increase in home improvement outlays (+7.6%) and expenditures of non-residential outlays (+0.5%). Outlays pertaining to new housing (-0.9%) fell in April.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011
World Factory Sector Output Shifts to Lower Gear / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ISM manufacturing survey results of May show a decelerating trend in factory activity. The composite index declined to 6.9 points to 53.5 in May, which marks the third consecutive monthly drop. The sharp declines of indexes tracking new orders (-10.7 to 51.0) and production (- 9.8 to 54.0) are worrisome.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011
Economic Stimulus Wears Off / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Michael_Pento
The artificially engineered U.S. recovery is already starting to falter as a continuous procession of disappointing data continues to confirm the sad truth. Recent numbers on GDP, durable goods, housing, regional manufacturing, initial unemployment claims and leading economic indicators all indicate a sharp slowdown in GDP growth. Just today the ADP Employment report showed that the private sector added a paltry 38,000 jobs in May, down from 177,000 jobs in April, significantly below expectations, and the weakest number since September 2010.