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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, May 16, 2011

Bank of England's Phony Inflation Panic, Greece Bankrupt Again, Silver Crash 2011 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week saw the Merv (Britain's version of the Bernank) step forward and utter excuses as to why he now expects UK inflation to 'temporarily' soar above 5% this year on the official CPI measure (that significantly under reports real inflation as experienced by the general population). Mervyn King in a smoke and mirrors presentation all but blamed speculators for the surge in commodity prices with expectations that UK energy prices would surge by 15% later in the year.

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Economics

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Q2 Economic Contraction Highly Probable / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecently I have been discussing the possibility that the US economy is in fact in a period of contraction. I want to revisit that call as I don't loosely throw out such a statement without backing it up with real data. Q1 2011 GDP was 1.77%, a 43% reduction in Q4 2010 GDP of 3.11%. Although Q1 GDP could be revised higher over the next two revisions it did highlight three sources of contraction.

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Economics

Saturday, May 14, 2011

U.S. Consumer Price Index, Dichotomy Between Overall and Core Price Inflation Persists / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in April after a 0.5% increase in March.  The CPI has posted gains between 0.4% and 0.5% for five consecutive months, putting the five month annualized change in the CPI at 5.8%.  Under other circumstances the Fed would view the recent readings of overall inflation as severely inflationary and engage in suitable monetary policy actions to prevent further increases in prices.  The present situation is different. 

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Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

Why Inflation in China Could Lead to Another Global Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: Inflation in China is far more intractable than official headline statistics reveal.

That's potentially bad news for global growth and toppy stock and commodities markets.

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Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

Why Economic Growth is Dead / Economics / US Economy

By: Dr_Martenson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Rolls Submits: The end of the second round of quantitative easing (QE II) is going to be a complete disaster for the paper markets -- specifically commodities, stocks, and then finally bonds, in that order, with losses of 20% to 50% by the end of October. The only thing that will arrest the plunge will be QE III, although we should remain alert to the likelihood that it will be named something else in an attempt to obscure what it really is. Perhaps it will be known as the "Muni Asset Trust Term Liquidity Facility" or the "American Prime Purchase Program," but whatever it is called, it will involve hundreds of billions of thin-air dollars being printed and dumped into the financial system.  

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Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

U.S. Retail Sales, Wholesale Price Inflation, Jobless Claims Economic Worries / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic data published this morning contain bothersome aspects.  Retail sales recorded the smallest monthly increase since July 2010, initial jobless claims remain at an elevated level, and wholesale prices moved up, inclusive of core prices which exclude food and energy. 

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Economics

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Macro Economic Theory Confusion on Inflation, Commodities, and the Fed / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Kel_Kelly

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA recent discussion regarding commodity prices on CNBC consisted virtually of sentence-by-sentence errors with respect to macroeconomic theory. Most of the misstatements involve either accidentally or intentionally — I don't know which — attributing economic and financial market events to various incorrect or misleading cause-and-effect scenarios, when the real explanation is simply the government's creation of money and credit.

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Economics

Thursday, May 12, 2011

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens on Higher Oil Prices In March / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit widened to $48.18 billion in March from $45.44 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports (+4.6%) and imports (+4.9%) of goods and services advanced in March. In real terms, exports of goods grew 4.8%, while that of imports moved up 3.7%. Effectively, the real trade deficit of goods widened only slightly (%50.1 billion vs. $49.3 billion in February. For the first quarter, the real trade deficit of goods stands at $49.9 billion compared with $45.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The first quarter trade deficit is slightly smaller than the assumption included in the advance estimate of first quarter GDP, implying a small upward revision. The net impact on GDP will be determined by retail sales and inventories numbers to be published on May 12.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

The Economy When Capital Is Nowhere in Sight / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jeffrey_A_Tucker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Travel Channel episode of No Reservations, a cooking-focused show narrated by Anthony Bourdain, took viewers to Port-au-Prince, Haiti. I had heard that the show offered unique insight into the country and its troubles. I couldn't imagine how. But it turns out to be true. Through the lens of food, we can gain an insight into culture, and from culture to economy, and from economy to politics and finally to what's wrong in this country and what can be done about it.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Inflation Fears: Real or Hysteria? / Economics / Inflation

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDebate continues to rage between the inflationists who say the money supply is increasing, dangerously devaluing the currency, and the deflationists who say we need more money in the economy to stimulate productivity.  The debate is not just an academic one, since the Fed’s monetary policy turns on it and so does Congressional budget policy.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Inflationary Reality Always Comes After “Recovery” / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Inflation watchers should be witnessing already the reality of the inflationary cycle; companies are cutting down their product sizes, cutting corners on packaging, and most importantly, raising prices.  A few household names like Nike, McDonalds, and Walmart have indicated that it is inflation that is driving up their costs of doing business, and now they’re looking for ways to pass on the costs.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

U.S. Economy Boom or Doom, The Truth about the Debt Ceiling Debate / Economics / US Debt

By: Q1_Publishing

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet the fear-mongering begin.

The debt ceiling debate has been positioned as a lose/lose situation.

Some claim a failure to increase the debt ceiling will lead to near-term financial Armageddon. They say the U.S. government can’t cut spending now. Deep cuts would kill the economic recovery.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

U.S. Small Business Survey Highlights Continued Pessimism about Business Conditions / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Small Business Optimism Index declined to 91.2 in April from 91.9 in the prior month.  More importantly, fewer firms had plans to increase capital expenditures in the next 3 to 6 months (21% vs. 24% in March) and the percentage of respondents indicating plans to increase payrolls held steady in April (2.0%). 

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

U.S. Rising Inflation Pressures, as Non Oil Import Prices Also Advance / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRhetoric from the Fed has held that recent gains of commodity prices are "transitory."  Economic data have been supportive of this stance.  Core consumer prices are yet to show worrisome readings and inflation expectations remain anchored.  Against this backdrop, new inflation reports will be tracked closely.  The Consumer Price Index will be published on May 12; import prices were published this morning. 

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Economics

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

How Iceland Became Paperland / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAndy Duncan writes: If you believe in a Creator, then you must acknowledge that He (or She) possesses an incredible sense of humor. Without this, how do you explain Iceland?

Fortunately for us, and particularly perhaps for the Irish, the Greeks, and the Portuguese, this deific challenge is detailed gloriously in the new book, Deep Freeze: Iceland's Economic Collapse, written by Professors Philipp Bagus and David Howden, which is freely downloadable for your Kindle or iBook pleasure via the Ludwig von Mises Institute.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Does Unreal GDP Data Drive Our Economic Policy Choices? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am back from Rob Arnott's conference in Laguna Beach, and I must confess that if I had attended it before I wrote last week's e-letter I might have had lower odds on the US political class solving the debt crisis, absent a real economic crisis forcing them to. There were several presentations that made the problems quite clear. It remains a tough issue.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

U.S. Employment Data Analysis, Clues from Duration of the Work Week / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Asha_Bangalore

Digging into the details of the April employment data, we found that the latest average weekly workweek numbers tell two different stories.  The average workweek was 34.3 hours (see Chart 1) in April.  The recent recession ended in June 2009 when workers logged in 33.7 hours; the increase in work hours is noteworthy.  But the gain is still short of the longer average work week (34.6 hours) which prevailed at the onset of the recession in December 2007.  These numbers suggest that employers will have the discretion to postpone employment because there is wiggle room to raise the number of hours worked before they will need to increase payrolls.

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Economics

Monday, May 09, 2011

The Upside-Down World of Modern Monetary Theory / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleModern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a hip economic/financial paradigm apparently sweeping a world unsatisfied with mainstream economics. Over the past year, I have been hearing a growing number of people refer to MMT: either fans who think it blows up my Austrian views, or foes who think it deserves a full-scale critique.

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Economics

Monday, May 09, 2011

What's the Real U.S. Unemployment Rate? / Economics / Unemployment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEvery month the government posts the unemployment rate yet few know where the unemployment rate comes from, how it is determined, and the relationship between the unemployment rate and the monthly reported jobs total.

For a quick recap, the unemployment rate comes from a "Household Survey" while the reported headline jobs total comes from the "Establishment Survey". The former is a monthly phone survey, the latter is a sample of actual business employment.

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Economics

Sunday, May 08, 2011

The Collapse of the American Standard of Living, Inflationary Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the economy stumbles the American standard of living recedes. 44 million people are using food stamps and in one year that figure will be 60 million. Washington and Wall Street say, what me worry? Of course not they are the masters of the universe. We are 24 months into an inflationary depression and it still goes undiscovered. Who cares that the issuance of food stamps is up 80%, as long as the bonuses on Wall Street and in banking continue to flow and bureaucrats get higher and higher salaries and benefits? The high cost of health insurance, no longer affordable to most have increased and Medicaid users are up 17%, as the program costs increased 36%.

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