Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 18, 2010
UK CPI Inflation Soars Above 2% Targeting a Break Above 3% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation is expected to bust through 2% tomorrow (Tuesday 19th) towards a target of 2.6% which was set over 3 weeks ago in the in-depth analysis and UK inflation forecast for 2010, that forecast a rise in UK inflation to above 3% early 2010, spiking as high as 3.6% and staying above 3% for most of the year only dipping to 2.7% by the end of the year as illustrated by the below graph.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Ernst and Young ITEM Club UK Inflation, Interest Rates and GDP Growth Forecasts 2010 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club issued their forecasts for key UK economic indicators today including UK GDP growth, Interest rates and CPI inflation for 2010.
Monday, January 18, 2010
In the United States Majority Rules, the Inflation Consensus / Economics / Inflation
By: Viresh_Amin
Most people are oblivious for a correct justification for the perpetual rise in all that can be priced i.e., oil prices rising to ungodly digits. For Americans, oblivious would be an understatement, though some are waking up to meet reality face to face, but not enough. Over the longer term horizon the general consensus among the public is that the price of everything will continuously rise, and so my wage will rise with it. It’s practically hard wired into the uninformed American mind and time and time again they fall into a myth.
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Monday, January 18, 2010
Worst Debt Crisis Since the Great Depression to Claim 200 More U.S. Banks During 2010 / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Washington has so thoroughly botched its supervision of the banking industry that 200 banks are likely to fail this year — easily surpassing last year’s 140 bank failures … inevitably involving the greatest bank losses in history … and already costing the FDIC ten times more than the great S&L and banking crisis of the 1980s did.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Monetary Base Expansion to Ignite Inflation Not Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_North
There are two fundamental principles that govern all economic systems: (1) supply and demand; (2) high bid wins. What distinguishes one economic system from another is this: (1) who is allowed to supply, and who is allowed to demand; (2) the currency unit in which the high bid wins.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
The American Economy, Weak Economic Recovery 2010 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: G_Abraham
A Introspect and Mull - In my continuing series of analyzing country data and macro balances, I present the American economy and the long term patterns. My previous post was on India: Why am I so Bullish on India?
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Japan in a Permanent Deflation Trap A Myth! / Economics / Japan Economy
By: G_Abraham
Japan is a perfect case study of how monetary policy can go awfully wrong and how the damage can be permanent. Japan, claims PIMCO’s Paul Mcculley, has entered into a disastrous self feeding deflationary spiral which is impossible to exit.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Marc Faber, Sovereign Debt Default Crisis Next to Hit Global Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Submissions
After every financial crisis there's a sovereign debt crisis, Marc Faber says. Countries that borrowed too much during the boom times start struggling to pay and service their debt.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Investment Opportunity or Economic Catastrophe? Coming Soon / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“…To put it bluntly, Faber says, ‘we are doomed’…
Faber, a long-time critic of U.S. policies, argues the private sector acted rationally after 2008 by deleveraging and increasing its savings. The government, on the other hand, added more debt and leverage. They can get away with it for now because interest rates are low. Eventually, interest rates will rise, causing the public sector debt bubble to burst under the weight of government entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security…
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Friday, January 15, 2010
Poland's Economy Is No Joke / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Peter_Schiff
Watching the world's leaders stumble their way through the economic crisis, it often feels as if political success and economic understanding are mutually exclusive. Even the Chinese, who over the past generation have engineered a dramatic turnaround from their Maoist economic nightmare, show a remarkable willingness to pursue a monetary policy (a currency peg to the U.S. dollar) that yields no benefit to their citizens. Amid this morass of economic quackery, it is refreshing to see a clear ray of sanity emanating from one country: Poland.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Howard Ruff Preparing for Rough Times By Hedging Against Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Howard Ruff, who has observed the markets, the economy and government through three serious recessions and witnessed the rise and fall of the dot-com and real estate bubbles, entered the world of precious metals when Robert Preston's How to Prepare for the Coming Crash caught his eye in the early '70s. Shortly thereafter, he founded The Ruff Times (a financial newsletter that has served some 600,000 subscribers over the years) and came out with his first book (a blockbuster that sold 2.6 million copies and made his name a household word).
Friday, January 15, 2010
US Debt: Look At It This Way / Economics / US Debt
By: Adrian_Ash
Seven ways to put the United States' national debt into perspective...
The SHEER SIZE of the US government's debt hasn't put off new bond buyers so far in 2010.
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Friday, January 15, 2010
Economists ‘Puzzled’ by December Retail Sales Decline / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mac_Slavo
While most Americans understand that falling wages, job losses and contracting consumer credit leads to less spending, it seems that many economists just can’t figure out what happened to retail sales in December.
Friday, January 15, 2010
China and India Push Hard Down On the Petro Keynesian Gas Pedal / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andrew_McKillop
WARNINGS - Warnings of fast and massive overheating of the Chinese economic miracle, with similar warnings starting to be heard for the Indian economy, underline the basic common driver: Petro Keynesian growth in 2010. Unlike the more massive and more ineffective 'tax-and-spend' programs employed in the US, in Europe and Japan since late 2008, the classic Keynesian solution of spend now but tax later, or inflate and devalue later, the Chinese and Indian anti-recession programs have spent strategic.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Inflation 101 / Economics / Inflation
By: Puru_Saxena
We want all our readers to understand that inflation is a disaster for society and it only benefits the elite. In fact, we will go even further by stating that inflation is a hidden tax, an insidious crime against the public. It is the easiest way for any government to confiscate the savings of the public and for generations, wealth has been transferred in this manner.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Financial Markets and Economic Crisis Outlook 2010, When Hope Turns to Fear! / Economics / Financial Markets 2010
By: Ty_Andros
I wish to send you my very best wishes for a Happy New Year.
WE WILL BEGIN THIS MULTI-PART OUTLOOK WITH A GENERAL OVERVIEW, THEN OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKS TOUCH ON A VARIETY OF CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSES, SPANNING THE MARKETS IN GENERAL, SUCH AS STOCKS, COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES, INTEREST RATES, BOMB....ER, BOND MARKETS AND TAKE FUNDAMENTAL LOOKS AT THE DIFFERENT REGIONS, BANKING SYSTEMS ETC.
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Friday, January 15, 2010
Ballooning U.S. Treasury Deficits, It Takes both Outlays and Receipts to Tango / Economics / US Debt
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury reported a record cumulative deficit over the 12 months ended December 2009 of $1.472 trillion (see Chart 1). Although the editorial board of the WSJ surely will rail against exploding federal spending, it will probably fail to mention another key driver of ballooning federal deficits - collapsing federal receipts.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
ECB Says Greece Debt Crisis is Tiny Compared to California for the U.S. / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Axel_Merk
At its monthly press conference, European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet was assertive in calling for fiscal discipline in its 16 member states that comprise 330 million people using the euro. Asked about bailing out Greece or other member states with severe fiscal challenges, Trichet called the ECB collateral framework crystal clear, applying erga omnes (equally) to every member state; no special treatment will be provided to any one member. In the euro zone, member states may receive funding from the ECB by posting collateral, but only if their debt is appropriately rated by the major credit rating agencies.
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Thursday, January 14, 2010
Small Business Trends Suggest No Economic Recovery On Horizon / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends for January 2010 is filled with 23 pages of graphs and text that suggest there is no recovery on the horizon.
Let's take a look at a summary and some of the graphs. Charts and text with permission of and copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. Highlights in red are mine.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
The Tepee Shaped Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Michael_Pento
The shape of this economic recovery will not be in a “V”, as many pundits have promulgated, but instead may be the inversion of that letter…which will unfortunately look much more like a tepee. The upcoming downfall will surprise most investors who have been tricked into believing that a government can print and spend their way into prosperity.