Monday, December 20, 2021
Consumer Price Index (Less Food & Energy) Climbs To Highest Levels Since 2007-08 / Economics / Inflation
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I and Part II of this research article, I shared my research into the state of past and current US and global economy, Rest Of World Debt, DGP Implicit Price Deflator, Fed Funds Rates, and other technical data charts. The purpose of this article is to share with you two key components of the current US and global market trends; higher inflationary trends and a potentially trapped US Federal Reserve.
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I will share more data/charts, and my proprietary US economy/Fed modeling systems results in Part III. My objective is to share my belief that the US Federal Reserve still has room to adjust interest rates (within reason) and how the US/global economy is starting to trend into the highest inflationary levels since 1975~1985. These levels could frighten traders/investors, but given the global economic constraints of the COVID lock-downs, I consider the current economic trends a symptom of the stimulus/solution – not necessarily an inherent economic trend. Allow me to explain my thinking in more detail.
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Sunday, December 19, 2021
Gold – Nothing More, Nothing Less, Nothing Else / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD – NOTHING MORE
Gold is real money; nothing more. That is a hard pill for some investors and advisors to swallow. Actually, it is the second part of the statement that raises the most concern.
More than just a few people will readily affirm their belief that gold is real money. Beyond that, though, there is a tendency to get carried away with descriptions and analyses regarding “fundamentals” for gold.
Those fundamentals are many and varied; but they have nothing to do with gold or its price.
As the cumulative loss in purchasing power of the US dollar becomes more apparent, and as the price of gold continues to rise, more people take notice.
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Sunday, December 19, 2021
Best Christmas Lights 2021 - Ooklee Outdoor Fireworks / Starburst Battery Lights Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: HGR
Tis the season for Christmas Lights! On the hunt for something unique I happened on a pair of battery operated starburst / firework lights. They looked good in the images, and so should look good hanging from our trees so I bought a pair from Amazon UK and here's our review of what to expect.
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Sunday, December 19, 2021
AI Predicts HIGH Risk of Stock Market CRASH, Last Warning Was Late Feb 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
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Sunday, December 19, 2021
How Online Casino Software Providers keep their product competitive / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
The online casino market has grown at an incredible rate in recent years in which more people than ever are opting to swap a visit to their local brick and mortar casino to a game online instead. As of 2019, the global online casino industry was worth $265 billion US dollars; a figure that was projected to continually grow before the pandemic.
Due to the success of the online casino market, casino providers are needing to come up with new and innovative ways to remain competitive. With so many providers, it can often be difficult for consumers to choose a provider or more so stick to one provider, in which customer loyalty could be said to be becoming a thing of the past.
However, providers like those listed on bestcasino.uk provide some of the top online casino software that’s continually being updated to reflect the fast growing pace at which technology is evolving. Below, we’ll take a look at how online casino providers utilise the latest software to retain a competitive edge in the market.
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Saturday, December 18, 2021
AMD Stock $136 on Route to Eventually Hit $200 / Companies / AMD
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Positive response to its earnings report but it is over priced on a PE of 56.7, and an EC of 16. The big problem with AMD is they are a serial share printer i.e. existing investors are being diluted by 5-10% per annum. Hence why whilst I want to buy more AMD, I don't want to pay anywhere near 57X earnings for a corp that prints shares! However, in light of their earnings report I am raising the buying level from $92 to $101.8, which is where I will aim to buy more AMD stock for the long-run.
Whilst I caution all those considering selling AMD, as I tend to get asked in the comments from time to time as this stock could easily trade to over $200 as I stated my expectations of several months ago.
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Saturday, December 18, 2021
META (Facebook) Dominating VR / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I won't regurgitate that which has already been blasted across the airwaves during the past few weeks since Zuckerberg's announcement so I will dive straight into the stock chart.
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Saturday, December 18, 2021
WTI & Brent Crude Oil – How Will Inflation Impact Energy Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence.
On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold.
Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel.
Saturday, December 18, 2021
Building a Desktop PC Computer Christmas Present, Will it Work when Switched On? / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: Eliza_Walayat
A DIY self built computer system Christmas present for Eliza! A good way to save money and as a teaching tool for kids to learn what all of the components in a desktop PC are are. But will it switch on? Lets find out!
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Saturday, December 18, 2021
Fed Interest Rate Actions 1999 to Present – Stock Market What’s Next? / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Let’s continue to explore the past 20 years of US Fed actions. I believe the US Fed has created a global expansion of both economies and debts/liabilities that may become somewhat painful for foreign nations – and possibly the US.
Reading The Data & What To Expect in 2022 And Beyond
In the first part of this research article, I highlighted the past 25 years of US Fed actions related to the DOT COM bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attack, the 2008-09 US Housing/Credit crisis, and the recent COVID-19 virus event. Each time, the US Federal reserve had attempted to raise interest rates before these crisis events – only to be forced to lower interest rates as the US economy contracted with each unique disruption. The US Fed was taking what it believed were necessary steps to protect the US economy and support the global economy into a recovery period.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Google Glass Metaverse Big Fat FAIL! / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I am really disappointed with Google given that they were ahead of the curve some 8 years ago with Google Glass, but then effectively put it it all onto the back burner with nothing much heard of since 2019. So it looks like Google could have blown it as they were really on the cusps of producing something that could have been huge but after 5 years of trying to make it work it appears the technology was just not good enough at the time and it looks like they gave up, maybe they are still quietly working on Google Glass in the depths of Google Labs to one day make a big reveal?
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Don’t blindly buy the dip in Stocks. Do this instead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
By Justin Spittler Stocks are under pressure.Although the big indexes like the S&P 500 have bounced back strongly so far this week... things still look dicey under the surface.
Stocks in leading industries like software, cybersecurity, and clean energy have sold off sharply.
Many investors make a huge mistake during times like this.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Inflation Beast Roars - Gold Only Modestly Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The inflation beast is growing stronger. Unfortunately for gold bulls, we cannot say the same about the yellow metal. Is sacrifice going on tomorrow?“Woe to you, oh earth and sea, for the Devil sends the beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short (...). Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast,” says the Bible. The current number of the beast is not 6.66%, but 6.8% - this is how high the CPI annual inflation rate was in November.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Stock Market Cliffhanger: 5 Historic Measures Point to ONE Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Options trading is HUGE these days, and you may be in that camp, too -- so, we think you'll find this story very interesting.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2021
AI Predicts Risks of Stock Market CRASH, Last Signal Was in Late Feb 2020. / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Another Stock Market Inflation Twist / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than bonds awaiting tomorrow‘s Fed, which is a good sign for the bulls across the paper and real assets. Sure, the ride is increasingly getting bumpy (and will get so even more over the coming weeks), but we haven‘t topped in spite of the negative shifts mentioned yesterday.
The signs appear to be in place, pointing to a limited downside in the pre-FOMC positioning, but when the dust settles, more than a few markets are likely to shake off the Fed blues. I continue doubting the Fed would be able to keep delivering on its own hyped inflation fighting projections – be it in faster taper or rate raising. Crude oil is likewise just hanging in there and ready – the Fed must be aware of real economy‘s fragility, which is what Treasuries are in my view signalling with their relative serenity. We‘ve travelled a long journey from the Fed risk of letting inflation run unattented, to the Fed making a policy mistake in tightening the screws too much.
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
US Fed Interest Rate Actions 1999 to Present – What’s Next? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I find it interesting that so much speculation related to the US Federal Reserve drives investor concern and trends. In my opinion, the US Federal Reserve has been much more accommodating for the global economy after the 2008-09 US Housing Market crash. The new US Bank Stress Tests and Capital Requirements have allowed the US to move away from risk factors that may currently plague the global markets. What do I mean by this statement?
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Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Insights into a "Remarkable" NASDAQ Stock Market Development / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here's what usually happens in the stock market when "the troops abandon the generals"
You've probably heard the phrase: "Appearances can be deceiving."
In other words, it's usually wise to "take a closer look" because the truth may not be obvious.
This applies to various circumstances of life -- even the stock market.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Act NOW to Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the concluding part 2 of 2 of my analysis that explains why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Breaking down the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) / Stock-Markets / DeFi
By: Stephen_McBride
Middlemen rule traditional finance. Loan officers at banks decide whether to give you money. We have to deal with stockbrokers, mortgage brokers, and insurance brokers.
DeFi is banking without the bankers. It’s a whole new financial system built on Ethereum’s (ETH) blockchain.
Blockchain’s key innovation is automating trust between strangers. This is extremely powerful. It means we no longer have to rely on financial middlemen to buy stocks or lend money.
DeFi replaces bankers with software. This software is built and managed by a community of individuals on the blockchain, spread across the world.