Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Want to Identify Market Trends? Watch Elliott Wave Analysis at Work / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
How it anticipated a multi-year crash in one of the world's biggest commodity markets
The large fowl we call "Turkeys" were given that name by the British, who thought the bird came from the country of Turkey. Truth is, turkeys are native to North America. And yet, the question no one will ever hear around the dinner table on Thanksgiving is, "Who wants gravy on their North America?"
This story recalls another fallacy -- or fowl-acy! -- that likewise persists in the face of facts to the contrary; namely, the mainstream financial theory known as "fundamental market analysis." The notions behind this widely held belief go like this:
Financial market prices are driven by external events, or "fundamentals," which can include crop-destroying weather patterns, political unrest, earnings reports, crop data, supply and demand numbers and so on.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Energy Sector to Bounce Off Cycle Bottom into 2020 / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: readtheticker
Low prices fix low prices, and eventually the shorts will be forced to cover and buy back their shares and force prices higher. This sector is 'this close' to such and event. Both Hurst cycles and Wyckoff supply and demand action are warming up to the bullish side for the energy sector (XLE). This is on the back of growing inflation fears. Inflation sourced from wage growth in the US and world wide central bankers (Japan [BOJ], Europe [ECB] and the USA [FED]) printing money at the same time. You should note this has never happened before, all three at the same time, printing. Yes, the energy sector has suffered from the lower oil prices but soon the shorts will have to judge how much lower energy stocks can go, as you can see the SPDR Energy Etf (XLE) has been unable to get below $50. Demand is present. What to do? Watch for significant Wyckoff demand foot prints to see price test upper resistance (sign of strength), and then take action from a strong change of character.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
This Artificial Economic Boom Is Coming to an End / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away.
One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt can be permanent. We don’t use that specific word, of course, but it’s what we do and is why government debt keeps rising.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Silver Price Trend, Gold Ratio, MACD and Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from part 1 (Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update ).
Gold Silver Ratio
The Gold / Silver ratio has continued to trend lower, currently standing at 83.8, which implies to expect the Silver price to continue to out perform Gold over the coming months. So whilst Silver is no longer the SCREAMING BUY it was when trading at a ratio of 95, nevertheless is still CHEAP! Whilst we can dream of Silver reaching it's long-term average of 50 which on today's Gold price would suggest $29.6! However my more realistic target for 2019 has been for a move to 80, which in fact was briefly achieved early September. A ratio of 80 would put the Silver price on $18.60 against the current price of $18.07, so only marginally higher, so whilst still favouring Silver, however don't expect Silver to soar once more like it did during August relative to the Gold price.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
How Income Investors Can Play the $500 Billion 5G Boom / Companies / Telecoms
By: Robert_Ross
Do you have a cellphone?
If so, it probably runs on a 4G network.
A decade ago, telecom companies spent over $200 billion on the cell towers needed for 4G.
That’s a lot of money. But it’s small potatoes compared to the $500 billion they’re spending on the towers to upgrade to 5G.
“5G,” as you’ve probably heard, is short for fifth-generation wireless network. This new technology will let phones and computers communicate 1,000 times faster than 4G—enabling everything from remote surgery to self-driving cars.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
The Prospects of Gold’s Next Upswing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The USD Index rallied on Friday, and gold responded with an intraday decline – that’s normal. What’s not necessarily normal is the size of the daily change in gold compared to the size of USD’s rally.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday 2019 Laptop Deals, and Avoid FAKE Sales / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: HGR
Amazon Black Friday Sale has already begun!
Here we show how to spot the difference between FAKE and REAL Black Friday sales with our focus on spotting Laptop deals, REAL deals and not just sellers trying to get rid of over priced old stock.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Gold Price Bull Run Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from part 1 (Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State). The gold price has had a strong bull run this year, breaking out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150, which propelled the Gold price towards a core target zone of $1500 to $1530 though ahead of the time frame I had in mind therefore putting the gold price into an extremely overbought state. The price action since the peak of $1566 appears corrective and thus should be in preparation for Gold's next leg higher with my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 less than 15% away from the most recent high of $1566.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.
What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Preconditions for BRIC-style growth in Philippines / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the postwar and post-Cold War era, the Philippines could have been an economic success story. Yet, the opportunity was missed between the mid-'60s and mid-2010s. In the Duterte era, the country is back on track, but BRIC-style growth is needed to overcome the legacy of past policy mistakes.In the postwar era, the Philippines was one of the expected economic success stories in Southeast Asia. The country was positioned for rapid growth.
Or so it was thought.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.
The latest poll of opinion polls (BBC) puts the the Tories on 41%, Labour on 29% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Cameco Uranium Major 'Heading Into a Bigger Q4' / Commodities / Uranium
By: The_Gold_Report
The Q3/19 results and the Q4/19 outlook are outlined in a BMO Capital Markets report.In a Nov. 5 research note, BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce wrote that following the reporting of Q3/19, the outlook for Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) "remains robust, with a strong balance sheet and upside potential if uranium prices recover quicker than expected."
Q4/19 is expected to be more active than Q3/19, as is typical for the uranium company, Pearce noted. For one, BMO expects Cameco to make record purchases in Q4/19 of greater than 7,000,000 pounds (7 Mlb) of uranium, including 1.2 Mlb from Inkai, to meet the midpoint of guidance. Further, BMO expects Cameco to sell 13.5 Mlb of uranium in Q4/19, which would constitute a quarterly record and which should drive CA$157 million of free cash flow.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
The Death Of Hedge Funds At A Time We Will Need Them / Stock-Markets / Hedge Funds
By: Avi_Gilburt
With the latest news of Louis Bacon’s closing down his hedge funds, we are seeing further evidence of the difficulties hedge funds have been having during recent years.
But, if you think about the counter-intuitive nature of this trend, it is actually quite interesting. Let me take a step back and walk you through what I am thinking.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
This Time is Different for Gold - Today vs. 2012 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold bugs will remember 2012 as the last year of hope that gold was still in its bull cycle as it managed to hold key support around 1550 into year end. It should not be lost on us that here into year-end 2019 gold’s new bull cycle has risen to, and logically halted at, the very same former support that is now important resistance to a new bull market.
We anticipated this resistance in the summer, and although the up-turning Semi cycle of 2013 was logical to gold’s demise 7 years ago, that is no longer the case as Semiconductor leadership takes a new leg up in 2019. Why? Well, let’s explore just a few of the differences between then and now.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
Is Another Sharp Precious Metals Sector Down-Leg Imminent? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the data and answers the question. The precious metals sector has been on the defensive since gold's COTs reached extreme readings in August, and silver broke down from its parabolic uptrend in September. Many think that the sector correction has now run its course, but has it? That is the question that this update is intended to answer.
On gold's latest six-month chart we can see the correction in force from the start of September and how it has unwound its earlier overbought condition and brought it back to a support level. Given the bullish alignment of moving averages, which shows the existence of a larger uptrend, many are concluding that all this will be sufficient to get it moving north again from here. However, there are several bearish factors in play, which suggest that instead we are likely to see another sharp drop before this corrective phase is done. The quite sharp drop early this month was on heavy volume, and the feeble rally of the past week or so looks like a countertrend rally—a bear flag—that will lead to another sharp down-leg very soon. This will break gold out of the channel shown and take the price to our downside objective in the $1,380–$1400 area.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
Everything You Need To Know About Betchan / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds On Verge of Sell-off / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have been warning of a peak in the markets and a continued capital shift in the global economy that continued to push the NASDAQ and DOW towards new all-time highs while the foundations of the global markets continued to weaken.
I authored dozens of research posts regarding this phenomenon over the past 90+ days. Yet the clearest signs of this event may already be present in these Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds charts.
Consumers drive economic activity and corporate debt is often a measure of sustainable debt function within a functioning economy. When consumers tighten their belts and exit the economy in some form and Corporate debt is viewed as “more toxic” than “opportunistic” – something has changed in the global economy where a portion of the active consumer engagement of that economy is waning or has already left the building.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
The Promise of AI / Politics / AI
By: Richard_Mills
In ‘The Terminator’ series of action films starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, a cybernetic organism (cyborg) is programmed from the future to go back in time and kill the mother of the scientist who leads the fight against Skynet, an artificial intelligence system that will cause a nuclear holocaust.
Terrifying and at times comical (“I’ll be back”, “Make my day”) The Terminator cyborg was among the first presentations of artificial intelligence (AI) to a global audience. (“C3PO” and “R2D2” of Star Wars fame and “Data” from Star Trek also qualify) The robotic assassin also depicted an extreme scenario of what could happen when “machine learning”, a vital element of AI, runs amok - ie. when machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence to the point when the machines take over and try to eliminate the humans who created them.
While numerous facets of AI have been developed over the past couple of decades, all with positive outcomes, the fear of AI being programmed to do something devastating to the human race, of computers “going rogue”, continues to persist.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
The Financial Implications of Bitcoin Casinos in Japan / Currencies / Gambling
By: Dylan_Moran
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