Monday, November 25, 2019
Gold Price Bull Run Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from part 1 (Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State). The gold price has had a strong bull run this year, breaking out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150, which propelled the Gold price towards a core target zone of $1500 to $1530 though ahead of the time frame I had in mind therefore putting the gold price into an extremely overbought state. The price action since the peak of $1566 appears corrective and thus should be in preparation for Gold's next leg higher with my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 less than 15% away from the most recent high of $1566.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.
What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Preconditions for BRIC-style growth in Philippines / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the postwar and post-Cold War era, the Philippines could have been an economic success story. Yet, the opportunity was missed between the mid-'60s and mid-2010s. In the Duterte era, the country is back on track, but BRIC-style growth is needed to overcome the legacy of past policy mistakes.In the postwar era, the Philippines was one of the expected economic success stories in Southeast Asia. The country was positioned for rapid growth.
Or so it was thought.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.
The latest poll of opinion polls (BBC) puts the the Tories on 41%, Labour on 29% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Cameco Uranium Major 'Heading Into a Bigger Q4' / Commodities / Uranium
By: The_Gold_Report
The Q3/19 results and the Q4/19 outlook are outlined in a BMO Capital Markets report.In a Nov. 5 research note, BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce wrote that following the reporting of Q3/19, the outlook for Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) "remains robust, with a strong balance sheet and upside potential if uranium prices recover quicker than expected."
Q4/19 is expected to be more active than Q3/19, as is typical for the uranium company, Pearce noted. For one, BMO expects Cameco to make record purchases in Q4/19 of greater than 7,000,000 pounds (7 Mlb) of uranium, including 1.2 Mlb from Inkai, to meet the midpoint of guidance. Further, BMO expects Cameco to sell 13.5 Mlb of uranium in Q4/19, which would constitute a quarterly record and which should drive CA$157 million of free cash flow.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
The Death Of Hedge Funds At A Time We Will Need Them / Stock-Markets / Hedge Funds
By: Avi_Gilburt
With the latest news of Louis Bacon’s closing down his hedge funds, we are seeing further evidence of the difficulties hedge funds have been having during recent years.
But, if you think about the counter-intuitive nature of this trend, it is actually quite interesting. Let me take a step back and walk you through what I am thinking.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
This Time is Different for Gold - Today vs. 2012 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold bugs will remember 2012 as the last year of hope that gold was still in its bull cycle as it managed to hold key support around 1550 into year end. It should not be lost on us that here into year-end 2019 gold’s new bull cycle has risen to, and logically halted at, the very same former support that is now important resistance to a new bull market.
We anticipated this resistance in the summer, and although the up-turning Semi cycle of 2013 was logical to gold’s demise 7 years ago, that is no longer the case as Semiconductor leadership takes a new leg up in 2019. Why? Well, let’s explore just a few of the differences between then and now.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
Is Another Sharp Precious Metals Sector Down-Leg Imminent? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the data and answers the question. The precious metals sector has been on the defensive since gold's COTs reached extreme readings in August, and silver broke down from its parabolic uptrend in September. Many think that the sector correction has now run its course, but has it? That is the question that this update is intended to answer.
On gold's latest six-month chart we can see the correction in force from the start of September and how it has unwound its earlier overbought condition and brought it back to a support level. Given the bullish alignment of moving averages, which shows the existence of a larger uptrend, many are concluding that all this will be sufficient to get it moving north again from here. However, there are several bearish factors in play, which suggest that instead we are likely to see another sharp drop before this corrective phase is done. The quite sharp drop early this month was on heavy volume, and the feeble rally of the past week or so looks like a countertrend rally—a bear flag—that will lead to another sharp down-leg very soon. This will break gold out of the channel shown and take the price to our downside objective in the $1,380–$1400 area.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
Everything You Need To Know About Betchan / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds On Verge of Sell-off / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have been warning of a peak in the markets and a continued capital shift in the global economy that continued to push the NASDAQ and DOW towards new all-time highs while the foundations of the global markets continued to weaken.
I authored dozens of research posts regarding this phenomenon over the past 90+ days. Yet the clearest signs of this event may already be present in these Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds charts.
Consumers drive economic activity and corporate debt is often a measure of sustainable debt function within a functioning economy. When consumers tighten their belts and exit the economy in some form and Corporate debt is viewed as “more toxic” than “opportunistic” – something has changed in the global economy where a portion of the active consumer engagement of that economy is waning or has already left the building.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
The Promise of AI / Politics / AI
By: Richard_Mills
In ‘The Terminator’ series of action films starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, a cybernetic organism (cyborg) is programmed from the future to go back in time and kill the mother of the scientist who leads the fight against Skynet, an artificial intelligence system that will cause a nuclear holocaust.
Terrifying and at times comical (“I’ll be back”, “Make my day”) The Terminator cyborg was among the first presentations of artificial intelligence (AI) to a global audience. (“C3PO” and “R2D2” of Star Wars fame and “Data” from Star Trek also qualify) The robotic assassin also depicted an extreme scenario of what could happen when “machine learning”, a vital element of AI, runs amok - ie. when machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence to the point when the machines take over and try to eliminate the humans who created them.
While numerous facets of AI have been developed over the past couple of decades, all with positive outcomes, the fear of AI being programmed to do something devastating to the human race, of computers “going rogue”, continues to persist.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
The Financial Implications of Bitcoin Casinos in Japan / Currencies / Gambling
By: Dylan_Moran
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Here’s Why You Must Protect Yourself Outside the Financial System… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David, it's good to have you on as always and we appreciate the time today. How are you?
David Morgan: Mike, I'm well. Thank you for having me.
Mike Gleason: Well, we've had a significant correction in precious metals prices, especially in silver, and I wanted to get your thoughts on that to start out here. To us, it looked like the bullion banks sold futures contracts to lots of speculators who got interested in metals. Then as often happens, the speculators got taken out to the woodshed. However, open interest appears to still be rising. We would have expected that to fall after a couple weeks of lower prices and pain pushing those longs out of the market, so maybe something else is going on here. What do you make of the recent price correction and where do you think the markets might be headed in the short term? Do you think the selling might be over for now?
Friday, November 22, 2019
FOMC Minutes Reveal an Important Shift That’s Key for Gold, Too / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Yesterday, the Fed released minutes from its last meeting. They show an important shift among the meeting participants. In September, the FOMC turned more worried about the state of the U.S. economy, while just six weeks later in October, the Committee felt more optimistic again. Indeed, the central bankers noted that certain downside risks had softened:
Uncertainties associated with trade tensions as well as geopolitical risks had eased somewhat, though they remained elevated (…) Some risks were seen to have eased a bit, although they remained elevated. There were some tentative signs that trade tensions were easing, the probability of a no-deal Brexit was judged to have lessened, and some other geopolitical tensions had diminished.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Adaptive Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Weakness Into 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the Transportation Index will fall to levels near $10,000 over the next 2 to 3 weeks which would indicate moderate price weakness in the US stock market and the global stock market.
Our ADL predictive modeling system attempts to model future price activity by finding and mapping critical price and technical elements within the historical price action. In a way, this is like mapping the future by attempting to learn from the past. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Why You Should “Follow the Money” on The Yellow (and Silver) Brick Road / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Since the Federal Reserve detached the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, the world's central bankers – with the Fed leading the charge, have flooded the world with fiat currency to the point of diminishing its purchasing power to shadow status.
A common belief during the early decades of the former Soviet Union's rise after 1917 was that, according to Marxist-Leninist theory, the West and capitalism would either self-destruct, or be "buried" by the superior economic platform being constructed for the proletariat by the USSR, and later Communist China.
But even the Great Depression, which in the West lasted from the Crash of 1929, and arguably into WWII, failed to do the trick.
Friday, November 22, 2019
The Worst Is Over For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Some analysts see the world dodging a recession next year, which provides some upward room for oil prices.
Last week, the IEA warned last week that “the hefty supply cushion” building up in the first half of 2020 will cause OPEC+ problems as the group tries to balance the oil market. Part of the reason for another potential surplus is the steep drop in demand growth this year, forcing oil forecasters to make multiple downward revisions to their projections.
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Thursday, November 21, 2019
This Invisible Tech Stock Threatens Amazon with 800,000+ Online Stores / Companies / Amazon
By: Stephen_McBride
Have you heard of Dollar Shave Club?
It sells razors and other grooming products for men.
In just five years, it has grown into a $1 billion company and one of the biggest “personal care” brands in America… and it’s now threatening giants like Gillette and Schick.
You might be surprised to learn the company pulled this off without selling a single product in a physical store.
You can’t buy its razors or aftershave in Walmart, Target, Costco, or anywhere else in the “real world.” It only sells its products on the internet.
Now here’s the truly shocking thing...
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we posted a multi-part research post suggesting a collapse in Crude Oil could be setting up and how we believe this decline in energy prices may lead to a broader market collapse in the near future. Crude oil fell more than 3% on November 19 in what appears to be a major price reversal. On November 20, inventory levels and other key economic data will be presented – could the price of oil collapse even further over the next 60+ days?
Here is a link to our most recent multi-part article about Crude Oil from November 13 (just a week ago): https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-happens-to-the-global-economy-if-oil-collapses-below-40-part-i/
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