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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

ElectionOracle

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Will YouGov General Election Forecast 2019 be as Wrong as their REAL Forecast was for 2017? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.

Apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what the mainstream press has been liberally regurgitating in response to the release of their MRP forecast for 2019 that predicts the Tories are heading for a 68 seat majority on 359 seats up from 315, with Labour falling from the current 242 to 211.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.

The latest poll of opinion polls puts the the Tories on 42%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Checking in on Gold & Silver Sentiment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector remains in a correction. The miners have shown some positive signs but are not ready to move yet because the metals likely have more correction ahead.

Technical support levels can provide us with low risk buy opportunities but combine that with sentiment data and we increase our odds of success.

One reason why the sector is stuck in a correction is because the net speculative position in Gold remains stubbornly high at 44% of open interest. Following interim peaks in the 2000s, the net speculative position usually fell to 30% and even 20% at times before Gold began its next impulsive advance.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Amazon Black Friday External USB Hard Drive REAL Bargains! 8TB WD My Book... / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: HGR

Amazon Black Friday Sale has already begun! And on searching for some REAL computer tech bargains, the category that most stands out for REAL price cuts to rock bottom prices are for the external USB hard drives that have been typically been cut to their lowest prices ever! As this video illustrates, 6TB, 8TB, WD drives are trading at new extreme low prices on Amazon, which given price history then these low prices are unlikely to hold beyond Black Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

$EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave / Stock-Markets / Canada

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly the EWC instrument inception date was 3/12/1996. The iShares MSCI Canada ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large and mid-sized companies in Canada. This is of course reflected in the price. The best Elliott Wave reading of the long term cycles in $EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF must presume some lower prices that did not exist prior to the ETF fund inception date.

Shown on the monthly chart, the bullish cycle from all time lows is believed to have ended in November 2007. This is mostly in line with many other broad based ETF’s and indices that ended larger cycles near that time. Likewise the steep pullback lower into the March 2009 lows replicated the pullbacks in other ETF & indices instruments. This pullback was strong enough to suggest it had corrected the cycle up from the all time lows. The analysis and commentary continues below the EWC Monthly chart.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Stock Market Range-Bound Into The End Of 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Two of our favorite charts for following the US markets are suggesting the markets are range bound headed into the end of 2019.  The news may continue to push the price higher as the overall bias has continued to be to the upside.  Yet, our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting the current price trend has begun a “scouting party” type of move which may end in a moderate price correction fairly quickly.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

What Can You Do With a Finance Degree? / Personal_Finance / Education

By: Submissions

...

 


InvestorEducation

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Want to Identify Market Trends? Watch Elliott Wave Analysis at Work / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI


How it anticipated a multi-year crash in one of the world's biggest commodity markets

The large fowl we call "Turkeys" were given that name by the British, who thought the bird came from the country of Turkey. Truth is, turkeys are native to North America. And yet, the question no one will ever hear around the dinner table on Thanksgiving is, "Who wants gravy on their North America?"

This story recalls another fallacy -- or fowl-acy! -- that likewise persists in the face of facts to the contrary; namely, the mainstream financial theory known as "fundamental market analysis." The notions behind this widely held belief go like this:

Financial market prices are driven by external events, or "fundamentals," which can include crop-destroying weather patterns, political unrest, earnings reports, crop data, supply and demand numbers and so on.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Energy Sector to Bounce Off Cycle Bottom into 2020 / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: readtheticker

Low prices fix low prices, and eventually the shorts will be forced to cover and buy back their shares and force prices higher. This sector is 'this close' to such and event. Both Hurst cycles and Wyckoff supply and demand action are warming up to the bullish side for the energy sector (XLE). This is on the back of growing inflation fears. Inflation sourced from wage growth in the US and world wide central bankers (Japan [BOJ], Europe [ECB] and the USA [FED]) printing money at the same time. You should note this has never happened before, all three at the same time, printing. Yes, the energy sector has suffered from the lower oil prices but soon the shorts will have to judge how much lower energy stocks can go, as you can see the SPDR Energy Etf (XLE) has been unable to get below $50. Demand is present.  What to do? Watch for significant Wyckoff demand foot prints to see price test upper resistance (sign of strength), and then take action from a strong change of character.    

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Economics

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

This Artificial Economic Boom Is Coming to an End / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away.

One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt can be permanent. We don’t use that specific word, of course, but it’s what we do and is why government debt keeps rising.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Silver Price Trend, Gold Ratio, MACD and Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from part 1 (Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update ).

Gold Silver Ratio

The Gold / Silver ratio has continued to trend lower, currently standing at 83.8, which implies to expect the Silver price to continue to out perform Gold over the coming months. So whilst Silver is no longer the SCREAMING BUY it was when trading at a ratio of 95, nevertheless is still CHEAP! Whilst we can dream of Silver reaching it's long-term average of 50 which on today's Gold price would suggest $29.6! However my more realistic target for 2019 has been for a move to 80, which in fact was briefly achieved early September. A ratio of 80 would put the Silver price on $18.60 against the current price of $18.07, so only marginally higher, so whilst still favouring Silver, however don't expect Silver to soar once more like it did during August relative to the Gold price.

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Companies

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

How Income Investors Can Play the $500 Billion 5G Boom / Companies / Telecoms

By: Robert_Ross

Do you have a cellphone?

If so, it probably runs on a 4G network.

A decade ago, telecom companies spent over $200 billion on the cell towers needed for 4G.

That’s a lot of money. But it’s small potatoes compared to the $500 billion they’re spending on the towers to upgrade to 5G.

“5G,” as you’ve probably heard, is short for fifth-generation wireless network. This new technology will let phones and computers communicate 1,000 times faster than 4G—enabling everything from remote surgery to self-driving cars.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

The Prospects of Gold’s Next Upswing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The USD Index rallied on Friday, and gold responded with an intraday decline – that’s normal. What’s not necessarily normal is the size of the daily change in gold compared to the size of USD’s rally.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday 2019 Laptop Deals, and Avoid FAKE Sales / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: HGR

Amazon Black Friday Sale has already begun!

Here we show how to spot the difference between FAKE and REAL Black Friday sales with our focus on spotting Laptop deals, REAL deals and not just sellers trying to get rid of over priced old stock.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 25, 2019

Gold Price Bull Run Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from part 1 (Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State). The gold price has had a strong bull run this year, breaking out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150, which propelled the Gold price towards a core target zone of $1500 to $1530 though ahead of the time frame I had in mind therefore putting the gold price into an extremely overbought state. The price action since the peak of $1566 appears corrective and thus should be in preparation for Gold's next leg higher with my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 less than 15% away from the most recent high of $1566.

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Housing-Market

Monday, November 25, 2019

New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Dan_Amerman

A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.

What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.

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Economics

Monday, November 25, 2019

Preconditions for BRIC-style growth in Philippines / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the postwar and post-Cold War era, the Philippines could have been an economic success story. Yet, the opportunity was missed between the mid-'60s and mid-2010s. In the Duterte era, the country is back on track, but BRIC-style growth is needed to overcome the legacy of past policy mistakes.

In the postwar era, the Philippines was one of the expected economic success stories in Southeast Asia. The country was positioned for rapid growth.

Or so it was thought.
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ElectionOracle

Monday, November 25, 2019

UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.

The latest poll of opinion polls (BBC) puts the the Tories on 41%, Labour on 29% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 25, 2019

Cameco Uranium Major 'Heading Into a Bigger Q4' / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Gold_Report

The Q3/19 results and the Q4/19 outlook are outlined in a BMO Capital Markets report.In a Nov. 5 research note, BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce wrote that following the reporting of Q3/19, the outlook for Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) "remains robust, with a strong balance sheet and upside potential if uranium prices recover quicker than expected."

Q4/19 is expected to be more active than Q3/19, as is typical for the uranium company, Pearce noted. For one, BMO expects Cameco to make record purchases in Q4/19 of greater than 7,000,000 pounds (7 Mlb) of uranium, including 1.2 Mlb from Inkai, to meet the midpoint of guidance. Further, BMO expects Cameco to sell 13.5 Mlb of uranium in Q4/19, which would constitute a quarterly record and which should drive CA$157 million of free cash flow.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 25, 2019

The Death Of Hedge Funds At A Time We Will Need Them / Stock-Markets / Hedge Funds

By: Avi_Gilburt

With the latest news of Louis Bacon’s closing down his hedge funds, we are seeing further evidence of the difficulties hedge funds have been having during recent years.

But, if you think about the counter-intuitive nature of this trend, it is actually quite interesting. Let me take a step back and walk you through what I am thinking.

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