Monday, May 06, 2019
Impact of Demographics on UK House Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis directly continues on from (UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Monday, May 06, 2019
Earth vs. The Human Amoeba / Politics / Environmental Issues
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A few days ago, I received a video of an April 22 (Earth Day) lecture by my longtime friend Nate Hagens. Nate and I both owe a lot concerning our view and understanding of the world to Jay Hanson, who tragically died about a month ago on a diving trip in Indonesia. Many people have written and thought about issues of energy, or economics, or ecology; Jay brought it all together and, crucially, added the human brain and genetic properties to the mix.
Teaching at the University of Minnesota, Nate has greatly expanded on this big picture, and produces -among other things- a lot of video material for his students. Lucky them: a view with so much breadth and depth at the same time is exceedingly rare. What most people don’t get is that you can say: we can do so-and-so, but it’s mostly just in theory. In practice, our brains make us react much different from the theory. Because it’s not our “rational brain” that drives us, it’s our amoeba brain.
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Monday, May 06, 2019
Gold Stocks Big Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I was going through some old long term charts I haven’t posted in many years to see if there was anything of interest to post tonight. With long term charts things don’t change very fast and the big picture can stay viable for years. I have literally hundreds of charts for the different PM stock indexes that I’ve built through the years that are tucked away in different chart lists that I don’t check very often. It’s always interesting to go through some of those old chart lists, especially with the longer term charts, to see what I was thinking years ago and how relative that big picture looks today.
This first chart is a 12 year weekly chart for the XAU which begins with the 2007 small H&S top that led to the crash in 2008. When I first began to post that potential H&S top nobody and I mean nobody wanted to hear about it. The PM complex had been in a raging bull market up to that time so how could there be a H&S top reversal pattern forming. That 2007 H&S top produced the biggest and most vertical decline in the history of the XAU which caught most PM investors off guard. Luckily for those investors that held on during that massive decline, which would have been near impossible, were treated to a reverse symmetry rally back up over the same area on the way down. That 2008 crash low rally produced marginally new highs which turned out to be a massive H&S top which ended the bull market.
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Monday, May 06, 2019
America’s Iran Plans Suffer from a Double-Bind / Politics / Iran
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Triangle Drama of the United States, Iran, and China
Starting in May, the White House hopes to extinguish Iran’s oil exports. However, any destabilization may prove counter-productive and cause long-term damage to the United States, the region and global prospects.
For three years, the nuclear accord (JCPOA) offered Iran relief from the multilateral sanctions on energy, financial, shipping, automotive and other sectors.
The shift in the U.S. policy began in late 2016, when the Congress extended the Iran Sanctions Act for a decade. That emboldened Trump's unipolar stance.
But what are the immediate economic and strategic implications?
Monday, May 06, 2019
Is Trump Foreign Policy Designed Backwards to Disrupt the Empire? / Politics / US Politics
By: Stephen_Merrill
According to US conservatives, Donald Trump’s MAGA has served to sharpen the bristles of US foreign policy reigning in the competing global powers with sanctions and far reaching power-plays in trade and weaponry, way beyond Obama and even Clinton.Even the death zombie Dems have to applaud Trump at times, when he bombs Syria on fake news or sanctions Russia even more or tries to overthrow the Venezuelan government with gangster tactics. The billionaires’ media finally finds its President then.
So, the self-serving assessment in Washington is that Trump the Terrible has been successfully compromised into fully supporting Empire games of endless war and chaos, just like his recent predecessors. The conclusion becomes there is simply is no resisting the US intelligence agencies that are the spearpoint for Congress’ faithful alliance with the Merchants of Death, 1tr a year and vastly growing.
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Monday, May 06, 2019
5 Options To Achieve Financial Freedom By Earning Money Online / Personal_Finance / Money Making
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
When the Uber-Wealthy Bash the Wealth Gap, It's Time to Worry / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
By Murray Gunn
Multi-billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio recently published a 7500-word call to reform American capitalism. Noting that the nation's wealth gap is the "highest since the 1930s," Dalio wrote that rather than distributing income equally, capitalism is "producing self-reinforcing spirals up for the haves and down for the have-nots" which "pose existential threats to the United States," and amount to a "national emergency."
Parts of Dalio's message sound eerily close to another article authored by another uber-successful capitalist, John J. Raskob. In his piece "Everybody Aught to Be Rich," Raskob writes:
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we have an eye-opening interview with Bill Holter of JS Mineset. Bill weighs in host of topics including our incredibly broken and phony markets, the truth behind why governments hate gold so much, and the real reasons why China and Russia are eagerly amassing huge gold positions.
Bill also highlights some tell-tale events he believes could cause a massive revaluation of gold and silver… and an implosion of the debt-based markets we have today. Don’t miss our explosive interview with Bill Holter, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets got hit this week as the Federal Reserve threw cold water on the idea of interest rate cuts.
Fed policy makers met on Wednesday and left their benchmark rate unchanged as expected. The Fed’s statement noted that price inflation excluding food and energy has declined over the past 12 months and is officially running below 2%. This, even as oil and gasoline prices have trended sharply higher this year.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Stock Index Trading Signals for Momentum, Swing, and Trend Following / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since 2001 I have been refining my index trading skills and strategies in the hope that one day I would provide a steady stream of trades and income and possibly even be able to automate the trading for me.
Now, 18 years later I have made most of these dreams/goals come true with a robust trading system that makes trading momentum drops and pops, swing trading, and trend following really simple. While it’s not 100% complete, and likely never will be as I’m always working on adapting things work with the everchanging markets, it is something I’m really proud of and excited to share with fellow traders. Over the next month or so I will be pushing to get this new application running for members to watch and receive the trade alerts.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Looking At Crude Oil Price Corrective Upswing, Is the Bottom In? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
It looks like crude oil is set for a sizable weekly decline. After yesterday’s plunge, the market looks to have stabilized today. But is it really so? In today’s analysis, we’re bringing you the details. We objectively reveal what to expect next. Either the bulls or the bears won’t like it. Who do you think it’ll be?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
US $2 Trillion Infrastructure Plan Will Require Mega Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
The White House and Congress finally agreed to put their significant differences aside and work together on something constructive, no pun intended.
On Wednesday it was announced that President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders plan to spend $2 trillion on US roads, bridges, power grids, water and broadband infrastructure - bricks and mortar priorities that are sorely underfunded in both the United States and Canada.
For more on this, read our The global infrastructure deficit: the road not yet taken
“We just had a very productive meeting with the president of the United States,” House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Polosi said during a press scrum, adding: “We did come to one agreement: That the agreement would be big and bold.”
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Night King is NOT DEAD! But it's Valar Morghulis for Game of Thrones Facebook Groups / Personal_Finance / Social Media
By: N_Walayat
An unknown HBO TV shows based books written by a fantast author no one had never heard of (RR Martin) that barely managed to survive past its pilot who HBO were not happy with demanding several cast changes and a re shooting of the whole pilot!
to its 2nd season has since stormed the world by it's 8th and final season. Where everyone has jumped on board the Game of Thrones bandwagon in the countdown to the shows final 3 episodes, but then what? Valar Morghulis, all tv shows must die!
Yes, there is take of prequels and spin offs but based on what happened to previous popular TV shows then Season 8 for most will be the end of Game of Thrones as it concludes its 8 season arc.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
These record US stock-market levels are very dangerous, riddled with extreme levels of euphoria and complacency. Largely thanks to the Fed, traders are convinced stocks can rally indefinitely. But stock prices are very expensive relative to underlying corporate earnings, with valuations back up near bubble levels. These are classic topping signs, with profits growth stalling and the Fed out of easy dovish ammunition.
Stock markets are forever cyclical, meandering in an endless series of bulls and bears. The latter phase of these cycles is inevitable, like winter following summer. Traders grow too excited in bull markets, and bid up stock prices far higher than their fundamentals support. Subsequent bear markets are necessary to eradicate unsustainable valuation excesses, forcing stock prices sideways to lower until profits catch up.
This latest bull market grew into a raging monster largely fueled by extreme Fed easing. At its latest all-time record peak hit just this week, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) has soared 335.4% higher over 10.1 years! That makes for the second-biggest and first-longest bull in US history, only possible because it gorged on $3625b of quantitative-easing money printing by the Fed over 6.7 years.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Will Yuan Replace US Dollar and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“The US dollar will collapse or it will be replaced by another currency” – we hear such statements all the time. Are they true? We decided to check these claims – so we invite you to read our today’s article about the US dollar’s international supremacy and find out whether the greenback’s demise is likely in the foreseeable future. Let’s also draw implications from the analysis for the precious metals market.
We have heard about the fall of the US dollar’s significance for over half a century. In particular, the rise of China’s economy threatens the greenback’s dominance. Trump’s unsound fiscal policy and the recent Powell’s dovish turn only reinforce these fears. So, let’s analyze whether such a scenario is likely in the foreseeable future and let’s draw implications for the precious metals market.
The dollar’s supremacy started around 1955 when reserves held in greenback exceeded those held in pound sterling. Since then, the US dollar is a king. To be clear, we do not maintain that greenback is a wonderful currency without problems and better than gold. No, it simply has no competitors among other fiat currencies. It is a king of beggars.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Trump Trade War Is Widening, Not Ending / Economics / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
Almost every day brings comforting news on the trade front. They’re talking! Someone went to Beijing! Someone else is optimistic!
The problem is, that’s just talk. The longer it goes on, the more tariffs damage the economy.
Let’s call tariffs what they are: import taxes. Maybe then the people who oppose all other taxes will stop thinking tariffs are somehow helpful.
There are better and less harmful ways to achieve our goals. But what you or I think doesn’t really matter.
President Trump likes tariffs, and current law lets him use a “national security” pretext to impose them.
So they will continue until he changes his mind, and there’s no sign he will.
Saturday, May 04, 2019
S&P 500 Reversal Signals Becoming Apparent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
In the early parts of 2019, the biggest stories in the financial markets have become apparent in the S&P 500. Corporate earnings seasons was initially expected to be problematic for several major industry sectors. But quarterly earnings managed to outperform analyst expectations roughly 80% of the releases for the period and this helped propel the main U.S. stock benchmarks back toward record levels.
Near the end of the summer period in 2018, many equities analysts were beginning to think this was unlikely for 2019. Target price projections for several sectors were revised lower, and this led to rising volatility where many of the market’s key tech stock names (i.e. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft) fell to new short-term lows. In the periods which which followed, however, the S&P 500 has received a forceful round of dip-buying. Very little in the way if technical price retracement has been visible, but this is not always the type of trend market watchers hope for in terms of long-term sustainability.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my latest analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series that warns to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why I did not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!
Friday, May 03, 2019
MAY Analysis - Stock Market, Machine Intelligence Stocks, House Prices and Gold & Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a head up for planned analysis for MAY 2019 that will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. I aim to post at least 4 pieces of analysis as was the case for April. Primary analysis to include an update to the stock market trend forecast i.e. any deviation from trend, a look at Gold and / or Silver, more stocks to invest to profit from the machine intelligence mega-trend as well as reaping individual personal benefits i.e. in terms of longevity. As well as continuing in-depth analysis in my series seeking to conclude towards a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Economic Dominoes Are Starting to Drop / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: John_Mauldin
In the Great Recession, authorities faced enormous pressure to “do something.”Letting nature take its course may well have been the best strategy. But it couldn’t happen that way in our political system. They had to act.
In 2008–2009, we got things like TARP—the Troubled Asset Relief Program that used $431 billion of your money to buy loans that banks no longer wanted on their books.
What we now forget is that TARP helped banks that weren’t even banks before that point. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and numerous other broker-dealers and insurers hurriedly got bank charters specifically so they could be part of TARP.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Universal Basic Income Would Be a Social and Economic Disaster / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jared_Dillian
I am never going to retire. Oh sure, I say that now, but what about when I am 80? No. I will never stop working.
Every morning, I get out of bed when the alarm goes off, take a shower, put on dress clothes (a suit, usually), and drive 35 minutes to work in an office that I rent in an office building.
I write newsletters. I can just as easily do that on the couch, in a pair of gym shorts, with a cup of coffee. Why spend over an hour a day commuting and dealing with all the brain damage of putting on a suit and going to work?