Sunday, October 23, 2022

US interest Rates and Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US market interest rates LEAD the inflation rate. even more so than that which the below graph implies as there is a couple of weeks delay in release of inflation data. And then there is the smoke and mirrors inflation game that the Fed plays i.e. core inflation vs CPI, core is CPI less food and energy because obviously people can survive without food and energy so are excluded so that the Fed gets a more manageable inflation number so as to make their job easier than if they had to cope with a truer inflation rate.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

WTI Crude Oil Is Stuck in a Choppy Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Oil prices ended the week caught between the headwinds of a tighter global supply and a lacklustre economic outlook eroding consumers' purchasing power.

Macroeconomics

On Thursday, the greenback took off over the value of 150 Japanese yen – a symbolic price mark – for the first time since the 1990s.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Stock Market Choppy But Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as the key trio on my watch (those always shown in bond charts), reversed intraday. Higher yields are generally supportive of the dollar, and put pressure especially on precious metals, no surprises here (been issuing mostly bearish daily outlooks in PMs for months already), with oil remaining relatively best insulated among commodities.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

The Fed is forced to pay you to Stay Safe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income

Safety Vehicles

Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as to be overlooked by all too many, probably because it pays no income and just sits there over decades holding value.

Cash: Unlike other bear markets in equities over the last few decades when the Fed throttled savers with the likes of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) at the first signs of trouble for asset owners, today’s Fed is commanded to clean up the mess it was primary in making during the last asset market bailout (H1, 2020), in a battle against inflation’s lagging indicators (e.g. CPI) and headlines (picture the public manning its pitchforks and torches) as cash pays increasingly higher income.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Euphoric US Dollar Vexing Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The euphoric US dollar’s epic parabolic surge over this past half-year continues to sorely vex gold.  The dollar’s vertical march to extreme secular highs spawned heavy gold-futures selling, slamming gold.  The resulting lower gold prices have scared away investors, leaving gold languishing near deep lows despite an inflation super-spike raging.  This fundamentally-absurd market anomaly can’t last, and is overdue to reverse.

Gold is behaving terribly this year, plunging 17.9% between mid-April to late September!  That has left even hardened contrarian traders disheartened, increasingly wondering if gold is dead.  Speculators and investors alike want nothing to do with history’s ultimate inflation hedge, even with headline Consumer-Price-Index inflation averaging stunning 8.5% year-over-year gains over the last six months.  Gold looks broken.

While gold was being slammed lower by relentless gold-futures dumping, the CPI peaked in June at a cycle high up 9.1% YoY.  That proved its hottest read since way back in November 1981!  So we are literally suffering through a brutal inflation super-spike today, the first since the 1970s.  The Fed’s extreme money printing after March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic has come home to roost, driving up prices.

Gold skyrocketed during those 1970s inflation super-spikes, as it should.  The first was born in June 1972 at a CPI trough up 2.7% YoY, then peaked 30 months later in December 1974 with the CPI soaring 12.3% YoY.  The monthly-average gold prices during that span soared 196.6% higher!  Gold’s supply growth is heavily constrained by mining limitations, so it is bid way up during times of serious currency debasement.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Here's Why This Stocks Bear Market is a "Global Story" / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI

"The decline started in emerging market stocks way back in February 2021"

A widely accepted measure of a bear market is a drop of 20% or more in a major index from an all-time high.

By that measure, both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Industrials have entered bear market territory since their January peaks.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Scan Computers Should You Buy? 18 Months Review, 3SX Custom Build PC, Quality, Reliability, Issues / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Here's what to expect when ordering a custom built PC from Scan Computers UK, where in this video in our series we evaluate how the system has performed over the past 18 months, how reliable is the build, what is the quality of tech support and what to look out for after using our scan computers 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb £3300 monster over the past 18 months.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

🎃 TESCO Halloween 2022 Shopping - Pumpkins Costumes, Decorations, Lights, Sweets and More! 🎃 / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Eliza_Walayat

��Halloween is just around the corner, so we were off to TESCO to see if there is anything to add to our Halloween collection that tends to grow each year. Where Halloween is concerned it's always wise not to leave your shop until the last minute, else you may find everything's gone! Here's what Tesco had to offer for Halloween 2022.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

4 Best Investment Plans for Medium Term / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Mark_Adan

Medium-term goals can be a great motivator. They can give you something to focus on in the present moment and help you to stay on track. However, it is important to choose an investment option that will not be too volatile. This way, you can be sure that your money will be there when you need it. Some of the most common medium-term goals include saving for your wedding or down payment of a house. If you're wondering what the best investment options are that will help you achieve your medium-term goals, this list should help. Find the best trading app UK here.

Friday, October 21, 2022

Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Which brings us to this BEAR market where my strategy has been NOT to seek to buy the bottom because we will only ever see the bottom in hindsight, instead my strategy has been to buy deep discounts in target stocks which has transformed my portfolio from this in January 2022 -

Friday, October 21, 2022

How Elliott Waves Work with Individual Stocks / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

"The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis"

Elliott waves reflect the repetitive patterns of mass psychology -- so they are ideally suited for analyzing the widely traded main stock indexes.

On the other hand, thinly traded individual stocks may not trace out Elliott wave price patterns nearly as well.

That said, there are many individual stocks which are widely traded -- like most of the big and well-known companies (and others which have captured the interest of investors).

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Stock Markets WORST Month of the Year Could Deliver a Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given! Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson? Parties, the media wasted thousands of hours of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!

Thursday, October 20, 2022

UK in CRISIS - Liz Truss Resigns, Inflation Nightmare, Soaring Interest Rates, Economic CRASH! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt, the Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given!, Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson, parties, stoopid media wasted thousands of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless, after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I must be a sucker for punishment to try and conclude my detailed 1+ year trend forecast at a time of maximum market uncertainty where major nations such as the UK are literally finding themselves on the brink of financial collapse! No really the UK financial system was a hairs breadth away from collapsing as it's pension funds that had GAMBLED ON INTEREST RATE DERIVATES with US rate hikes triggering a COLLAPSE in UK Bonds as Pension funds were forced to sell their most liquid assets, and the more UK bonds fell the more the pension funds were being forced to sell so as to meet MARGIN CALLS on their interest rate bets, which in effect was Britain's Lehman's moment prompting the Bank of England to BAIL THEM OUT by announcing that they would buy an UNLIIMITED amount of UK bonds so as to bring yields back down and thus push the capital value of Pension Funds UP so as to halt the forced selling that would have resulted in the Pensions funds defaulting and making the counterparty to their bets BANKRUPT! Yes you guessed it the BANKS BANKRUPT AGAIN! WALL STREET, LOMBARD STREET, CANARY WHARF, BERLIN! BANKRUPT! This is why whenever a patron mentions that the banks are cheap I tend to reply that you do know what they have gambled on until they explode!

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro Fast Track at Alton Towers Scarefest 2022 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: Anika_Walayat

Paying homage to a funny clip from the black comedy Four Lions which featured Alton Towers and the extremely funny rubber dinghy rapids/congo river rapids ride that we partook aptly during SCAREFEST for a fast track to paradise, innit?

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Are You Prepared for Widespread Bank Failures? / Companies / Financial Crisis 2022

By: EWI

"This time, the world economy appears to be on much shakier footing"

The ideal time to prepare for most anything in life, especially a potential circumstance that's adverse, is before it happens.

The problem is: Many people don't know what will happen in their lives ahead of time.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Post-bubble Economic Contraction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand

Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble phases because the Fed’s main macro manipulation tool, bonds, were in a multi-decade long trend of disinflationary signaling.

To this point with respect to the PBC, timing has been an issue. This is not a critique of Hoye, a fine financial historian and macro fundamental analyst. In fact, it is the opposite. It is from him that I learned the proper fundamentals for gold and especially the gold mining industry. But perfectly good deflationary meltdowns (of previous inflationary operations) were foiled in both 2008 and 2020.

Why were they foiled so effectively? Because the Federal Reserve and global central banks have for decades had a lenient bond market to fall back on (the fabled ‘bond vigilantes of yore apparently rode into a small town, hit the saloon and never again emerged… until 2022, that is). I have for many years now used the 30-year yield ‘Continuum’ (monthly 30yr yield chart, below) as a nice visual to the mechanics of the Fed’s macro-manipulative wheel house, the US Treasury bond market.

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Feeding the Stocks Bear Market Beast / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!