Sunday, October 30, 2022
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been battered over this past half-year, bludgeoned relentlessly lower with gold. Heavy gold-futures selling fueled by the US dollar shooting parabolic in a mania has slammed the yellow metal. Gold’s normal seasonal trends have been overpowered by speculators’ leveraged gold-futures dumping. But with their selling capital firepower exhausted, gold’s usual winter rally should roar back.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Is $600 Gold Price Possible? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD PRICE DECLINE – $600 POSSIBLE?
Over the past couple of months, since the posting of my article Gold Charts – $1450 the price of gold has done nothing to indicate a change in direction or reversal of any consequence.
Below is the latest chart (source) of physical gold prices showing monthly average closing prices since the peak in July 2020…
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Cheap Bargain Tesco Fireworks 2022 Shopping for Bonfire Night - Buying Midnight Mania Box 2 for £45 / Personal_Finance / Tesco
By: Eliza_Walayat
It's bonfire night soon so off we went to our local Tesco's super market to get some FIREWORKS! Tesco usually have some sort of offer on i.e. to get 2 boxes at a lower cost than single boxes. There wasn't much choice though we weren't expecting much from a small counter, anyway we bagged ourselves 2 boxes of Midnight Mania for a total of £45 with each box containing 17 fireworks which was an upgrade from what we bought last year i.e. 2 boxes of Sky Fire £35
So watch the video to see what's on offer at Tesco's 2022 and liklely for 2023 as well as thye don't tend to change much form year to year, and watch our videos for what the fountains, shot tubes, and rockets are like, we also boughta couple of packs of sparklers..
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Friday, October 28, 2022
FED Balance Sheet QE4Ever / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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Friday, October 28, 2022
Small Cap Stocks - When cheap isn’t enough / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
This “behind the scenes” conversation is too good not to share…I recently sat down with RiskHedge Chief Investment Officer Chris Wood.
He’s the smartest guy I know when it comes to investing in early-stage disruptive companies.
Today, Chris explains why serious investors should consider tiny stocks today... why “cheap” isn’t enough when it comes to investing in this space... and more.
***
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Friday, October 28, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Big Picture / Companies / Quantum AI Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in the video, the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess 2 years ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!
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Friday, October 28, 2022
What Do You Imagine for Your Financial Future? / Personal_Finance / Financial Education
By: Mark_Adan
Do you want to pay off your student loan debt? Or do you want to purchase your first home? Or do you want to break your bad credit card habits?
Having financial goals can help you achieve these goals. Heather Winston, Principal®’s assistant director of financial advice and place, said, “It is easy to prioritize when you set financial goals. You will have an idea of why you should save your money.”
It is, however, not enough to set financial goals. It is more important to transform your financial goals into reality. This stock trading app, UK can help you to invest your money for the future. If you want to achieve your financial goals, then read on to learn the best tips for achieving any financial goal:
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Friday, October 28, 2022
4 Commonly Made Mistakes to Avoid When Investing in Crypto / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Russell_Fenton
With social media sharing showcasing people making millions off of cryptocurrency - it is natural that others are experiencing FOMO and want to get in on the fun. There is potential for large gains with the cryptocurrency market, however nothing is guaranteed. After reaching a market cap of over $3 trillion in November 2021, the current market cap of the cryptocurrency industry is around $1 trillion in value.
But with such a huge market, the number of people trying to earn off of scams is infinite. There are more than plenty of rookie investors that fall into traps when investing in crypto.
Wednesday, October 26, 2022
TIPS BONDS FAKE INFLATION PROTECTION! / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How to protect one self form INFLATION! Well what the investment industry sold to their clients were Inflation Protected Bond funds! The sales pitch went that when Inflation soars and regular bonds fall don't worry you are protected so given that inflation has taken off like a rocket have these bond funds delivered on their sales pitch?
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Europe's Energy Sector: "The Lehman Moment Just Arrived" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
This company's stock price "broke a support shelf that dates back 14 years"
Back in October 2021, two months before Germany's DAX hit an all-time high, our Global Market Perspective showed a big jump in references to "Lehman" in Bloomberg News.
Of course, the use of "Lehman" in a news article has become synonymous with the collapse of the then financial giant during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The October 2021 Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International monthly publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, said:
The Lehman moment will come later, after investor optimism has receded and stock prices are well off their highs.
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022
When Will the Fed Throw in the Towel on Rate Hikes? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
The Federal Reserve finally stopped referring to inflation as “transitory” earlier this year and got serious about trying to control the painful rise in prices it has caused. Officials have jacked the Fed funds rate up by 3% since March.
Thus far they have been willing to inflict pain upon financial markets. The S&P 500 lost roughly 20% of its value since the end of March.
The aggressive tightening has also pushed the Federal Reserve note “dollar” higher relative to other major currencies.
Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Inflation and Interest rates Implications for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So inflation is not going significantly lower anytime soon, interest rates are still trending higher which does not bode well for the outlook for stocks. And then on top of that we have a weakening economy, STAGFLATION! Definitely not a time for investors to contemplate gambling on no earnings, even high multiples growth stocks. For the indices, it means downwards price pressure and then followed by a trading range..
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Tuesday, October 25, 2022
The Only Stocks to Buy in a Recession / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Submissions
By Chris Wood : When you think of “recession-proof” stocks... what comes to mind?
Let me guess… toilet paper and toothpaste?
The widespread (but wrong) belief is companies that sell “essentials,” like Clorox or Johnson & Johnson, are the best way to ride out a recession.
No offense... but I’m not interested in making 5% on a toilet paper stock.
Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Fate of Stock Market Q4 Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Sumeet_Manhas
S&P 500 turnaround was driven by the WSJ article that painted 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec hikes as some kind of a pivot, when it‘s not even a pause. While I had been for weeks of the opinion that this is the most likely route they‘ll take, markets have started favoring 75bp in Dec, and its possibility has been on Friday dialed back to 50% only. That‘s hardly a pause or pivot to me, but the speculation was enough to carry risk-on sentiment reliably into the close.
What I am questioning is whether sustainable bottoms can be made on such a news – even sustainable only in terms of giving rise to a reliable Q4 rally. Not when long-dated Treasuries still haven‘t found a bottom as foreigners are forced to sell in dramatic reversion of seemingly forever trade surpluses and high energy prices, which in case of natural gas can‘t be as regionally comparable as in oil. Together with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, this has implications for the debt markets, which I discussed both in mid Sep and in the above linked article.
The turn in junk bonds is fine for the bulls, but similarly to the S&P 500, it‘s still characterized by a pattern of lower highs after the summer rally fizzled out. It‘s only the Russell 2000 which has managed to keep above the Jun lows – and that confirms the rightful conclusion that the U.S. are best positioned at the moment still to weather the storm. What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.
Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Due Diligence in Private Equity with Mark Hauser / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
There are twice as many private equity firms out there today than there were a decade ago, and private market assets under management have reached an all-time high of $6.3 trillion according to McKinsey’s Private Markets Annual Review. As the market continues to grow and competition along with it, firms must determine how to quickly and effectively evaluate potential deals and identify strong investment opportunities.
According to data from Teten Advisors, the median investor in private companies reviews over 80 opportunities in order to make a single investment. To determine whether an investment is worth pursuing or if it should be passed over all investors conduct a rigorous process known as due diligence, but in the case of private equity a number of unique challenges are presented. Target companies are typically not public, meaning that information typically available in more traditional investments such as SEC filings are not accessible. Additionally, the focus of a private equity company on profits for the fund requires a different perspective from other alternative investments.
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Sunday, October 23, 2022
US interest Rates and Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US market interest rates LEAD the inflation rate. even more so than that which the below graph implies as there is a couple of weeks delay in release of inflation data. And then there is the smoke and mirrors inflation game that the Fed plays i.e. core inflation vs CPI, core is CPI less food and energy because obviously people can survive without food and energy so are excluded so that the Fed gets a more manageable inflation number so as to make their job easier than if they had to cope with a truer inflation rate.
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Sunday, October 23, 2022
WTI Crude Oil Is Stuck in a Choppy Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices ended the week caught between the headwinds of a tighter global supply and a lacklustre economic outlook eroding consumers' purchasing power.
Macroeconomics
On Thursday, the greenback took off over the value of 150 Japanese yen – a symbolic price mark – for the first time since the 1990s.
Sunday, October 23, 2022
Stock Market Choppy But Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as the key trio on my watch (those always shown in bond charts), reversed intraday. Higher yields are generally supportive of the dollar, and put pressure especially on precious metals, no surprises here (been issuing mostly bearish daily outlooks in PMs for months already), with oil remaining relatively best insulated among commodities.
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Sunday, October 23, 2022
The Fed is forced to pay you to Stay Safe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income
Safety Vehicles
Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as to be overlooked by all too many, probably because it pays no income and just sits there over decades holding value.
Cash: Unlike other bear markets in equities over the last few decades when the Fed throttled savers with the likes of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) at the first signs of trouble for asset owners, today’s Fed is commanded to clean up the mess it was primary in making during the last asset market bailout (H1, 2020), in a battle against inflation’s lagging indicators (e.g. CPI) and headlines (picture the public manning its pitchforks and torches) as cash pays increasingly higher income.
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Saturday, October 22, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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