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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

ElectionOracle

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Want to make sense of the U.S. midterms? Watch this... / ElectionOracle / US Politics

By: EWI

Hi,

Well, it happened again: Here in the U.S., election pollsters have egg on their face. In the midterm elections, a "red wave" -- Republicans winning by a landslide -- didn't come ashore.

What we got instead was a strong show for the status quo: a Senate hold for Democrats and a narrow House majority for Republicans.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

'No Mas' to Hawkish Fed Says Precious Metals Expert / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

In light of the controversy with FTX Corp., expert Michael Ballanger shares his opinion on current news coverage and the state of the gold market and U.S. dollar to tell you his view on the precious metals and whether he believes we are headed toward a bear market rally.

A tad over forty-two years ago, an absolute freak of a boxer named Roberto Duran lost a rematch with another fine battler named Sugar Ray Leonard when he uttered the two words “No más” and ended the bout.

As disappointed as I was to watch one of my favorite boxers (“scrapper” would be a better term) throw in the towel, I was actually appalled at the physical condition of the “Manos de Piedra” (Hands of Stone) Duran, who appeared to have ended his partying off the first bout about three days earlier.

However, the words ending the match were absolutely appropriate, and they are reminiscent of my current stance toward all this controversy and outrage surrounding FTX Corp., which is dominating the digital airwaves while swiftly becoming a major vote-getting platform for politicians. Surprise, surprise .

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Stock Market Ready to Spring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.

Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

GOLD AND THE NORMALCY BIAS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

We think we know most (if not, all) of what we need to know about gold. Investors do their research and marketers spin their best yarn(s). Support is offered with an amazing array of fundamental and technical factors on display for all to see. But what are we not seeing?

NORMALCY BIAS DEFINITION

normalcy bias (noun)

“The phenomenon of disbelieving one’s situation when faced with grave and imminent danger and/or catastrophe.”  …Wictionary

Here is a better, more complete definition from a different source…

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

FTX Collapse Reconfirms Bitcoin Is NOT “Digital Gold” / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: MoneyMetals

John Ray III oversaw the bankruptcy liquidation of Enron when the giant energy trading firm collapsed in an inferno of fraud and malfeasance in 2001.

Last week, Ray was appointed to handle the unwinding of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. He had the following to say, and it's a lot given his experience:

"Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."

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Economics

Monday, November 21, 2022

CPLIE - The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

People need to learn to forget about graphs such as this (Annual percentage change in CPLIE) -

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Commodities

Monday, November 21, 2022

Gold Price Formed a Bearish Star, and It’s Not Even Christmas Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Last week was full of events, but the most important one clarified after Friday’s closing bell – gold formed a reversal “shooting star” candlestick.

The implications are just as you think they are. After a sharp run-up, the rally has run its course, and the yellow metal is now about to slide again.

Let’s take a closer look.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 21, 2022

Economic Challenges face the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Donald_W_Dony

One of the biggest challenges that face the continuation of the 14-year economic expansion is inflation. Years of near-zero interest rates, an accommodating Fed, and low unemployment have resulted in the highest inflation rate in 40 years.

To counteract this rapid rise in inflation, the FOMC started increasing the Fed Funds Rate in May. First with small increments and then with four jumbo increases of 75 bps.

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ConsumerWatch

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Why Most Amazon Black Friday Sales are FAKE! Stock Price Set to Crash to NEW BEAR Market LOW / ConsumerWatch / Shopping

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's Back Friday, no wait it's Black Friday WEEK, In fact longer than a week as Amazon spreads Black Friday from 18th November all the way to 28th of Number, A 10 DAY SALE! But is it real or is it fake find out in my latest video as I take a look at this creaking tech giant, on the tricks it tends to pull to try and get people to hit the buy button on items that can cost more DURING the sale then barely a few weeks ago!

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Stock Market Investors Aren’t Buying the Fed’s Hawkish Posturing / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: MoneyMetals

As warning signs for the economy mount, investors are cheering for more bad news. That's because they expect economic weakness will force the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates and eventually re-embrace loose monetary policy.

One reliable indicator over the years of an upcoming recession is an inverted yield curve. An inversion occurs when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates.

Typically, a 3-month Treasury bill or 2-year note will yield less than a 10-year note or 30-year bond. Shorter-duration debt instruments entail less risk and therefore deliver less reward under normal circumstances. But over the past four months, short-term IOUs have begun to yield more than longer-term paper.
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Economics

Friday, November 18, 2022

WHY PEAK INFLATION IS a RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The Inflation Mega-trend

REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..

I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!

As for the United States, shadow stats does a good job of calculating the real rate of inflation which ia based on the US governments own 1980 formulae that resolves to 13.5% vs 8.2%.

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Commodities

Friday, November 18, 2022

As inflation eases, Macro grinds favor of Gold Stocks Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector

The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.

In a previous post we noted the risk/reward of gold (mining product) vs. crude oil (mining cost driver) that is at once very bearish for gold stocks and implying a great risk/reward proposition for gold, and by extension, the gold mining sector. Here is a chart showing the Gold/Oil ratio in a very depressed (bearish) state with nowhere left to go but up. That’s the positive risk/reward that has been hammered out since the high risk days of mid-2020 as the ‘inflation trades’ were just getting underway.

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Commodities

Friday, November 18, 2022

Can a Gold Stocks Rally Be Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

History tends to repeat itself, and mining stocks appear to be repeating their 2008 performance, which has very interesting implications.

Why do I think that gold miners are repeating their 2008 price patterns? Please take a look at the below chart.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 18, 2022

Banks are becoming more cautious about lending / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: EWI

And the implications are bigger than just getting a loan

Robert Prechter's Last Chance to Conquer the Crash discusses the psychological aspect of a deflation:

When the trend of social mood changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, investors, producers and consumers all change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation. As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending.

Evidence of that developing financially conservative mindset is seen in this chart from the just-published November Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets (commentary below):

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Personal_Finance

Friday, November 18, 2022

Amazon Black Friday - How to Grab BEST Deals, Top Tips and Hacks to Dodge FAKE SALES / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: HGR

It's Black Friday soon, and apparently Amazon is turning it into a week long sale, though its probably better to WAIT until the 26th of November for the real sales. Here are my top tips and hacks to ensure that you actually do grab bargains and not fall fowl to the tricks that sellers tend to pull such as raising prices before the sales and then cut on Black Friday so that there is no real sale. plenty of advice in our video on how to dodge the fake sales

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 18, 2022

Feeding the Quantum AI Tech Stocks Bear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!

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Companies

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

The INTEL Empire Strikes Back! 13th Gen Raptor Lake Beats AMD Ryzen 7000 CPUs / Companies / INTEL

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Intel is BACK! RAPTOR LAKE!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

S&P 500 Reached 4,000 – Is Stocks Bear Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock prices extended their advance on Friday, as the S&P 500 index reached the 4,000 level. We may see a profit-taking action, however, bulls are still in charge.

The S&P 500 index gained 0.92% on Friday following its Thursday’s rally of 5.5%. The market remained bullish after the Thursday’s Consumer Price Index release and the broad stock market’s gauge went the highest since September 13. On Friday, the daily high was at 4,001.48.
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Local

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Why Sheffield's Mobile Signal Coverage BAD - O2, EE, Three, Sky Vodafone / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The last time many Sheffielders experienced a good mobile signal was near 2 months ago! Find out why in our latest video on why many of Sheffield's Mobile mast towers are SWITCHED OFF!

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Currencies

Saturday, November 12, 2022

FTX Crypto Exchange Collapse Poses Warning of Much Broader Market Risks / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: MoneyMetals

Investors finally got some good news this week on the inflation front. Thursday's Consumer Price Index report showing price level increases moderating somewhat sent stocks, bonds, and precious metals all soaring.

CPI inflation still came in elevated at an annual rate of 7.7% through October. But that was slightly lower than analyst expectations. The 7.7% reading also represents a possible deceleration trend from earlier in the year when the CPI was running well above 8%.

With the official inflation rate now heading down a little bit, the Federal Reserve will likely start scaling back its interest rate hikes. Expectations for Fed softening helped drive the U.S. Dollar Index down to a two-month low.

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