Tuesday, July 26, 2022
Has Rishi Sunak Succeeded in Buying His Way Into No 10 - Fake Tory Leadership Contest / Politics / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
It looks increasingly likely that Rishi Sunak's Billionaire father in law has managed to buy his son in law the Keys to No 10. Whilst we won't know the true cost of all of the behind the scenes shenanigans, it probably runs in the tens of millions. For India like most developing nations is politically corrupt where the Rich dictate who gets info office and so will give birth to the Sunak Premiership as his battle with Liz Truss is pure smoke and mirrors exercise to convince the electorate that there actually is a leaderships contest when it has all already been bought and paid for by daddy in law.
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Why UK Cost of Living Crisis Will Get X10 Worse! Britain Heading for INFLATION CATASTROPHE! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation has just nudged higher to 9.4% that is prompting the always wrong crowd to crow loudly about how peak inflation being just around the corner, however the herd remains completely blind to what is set to follow over the remainder of this decade and the funnel all of their weak brain power into regurgitating the same annual percentage change graphs, all whilst missing the Inflation big picture that warns that even if peak inflation i just around the corner to soon to be followed by inflation falling to say 6% or even 5%, however this is not going to make any difference to the INFLATION PAIN that is going to manifest over the coming years,
Britain's inflation goose is well and truly cooked as our inept government and even more moronic central bank have sleep walked Britain to back to the 1970;s which will manifest in a cost of living crisis that most are unprepared for as my latest video illustrates.
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Gold Will Come Out Stronger from the Economic Hurricane / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Recession calls are getting louder. If history is any guide, the bust is coming. Good news for gold!
An economic hurricane is coming. Brace yourselves! This is at least what Jamie Dimon suggested last month. To be precise, he said: “Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road, coming our way. We just don’t know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy.” When JP Morgan Chase’s CEO is painting such a gloomy picture, you know that something serious is going to happen!
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Do Fed Rate Decisions Affect The Price Patterns For Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Many traders are focused on Gold as price has contracted over the past 5+ weeks, and the $1700 level is being retested. This prompted my team and I to do some research related to the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate increases and how Gold has previously reacted to rising and falling interest rates.
Exploring Price Patterns Between Gold and Fed Rate Decisions
I knew from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 event that Gold initially moves downward as extreme selling pressures drive almost all assets lower. Yet, in both cases, Gold quickly rebounded and began to move higher within 5+ weeks after setting up a bottom.
I started my research by outlining “Normal Fed Activity” and “Extended QE Fed Activity” to see if I could identify any difference in how Gold reacted to fear and uncertainty in these phases. My thinking was that Gold would react more muted in a price range in Normal Fed Activity phases because crisis events and economic uncertainty are more muted overall. When the Fed enters an expansive QE phase, this activity is associated with a US/Global economy that requires extraordinary measures to prompt expected normal capital functions.
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Expert Says the Stock Market Tide Has Gone Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
Expert Michael Ballanger reviews the current market cycle, Elon Musk's impact on the stock market, and reveals the stock he says has a positive outlook amidst the chaotic backdrop of summer 2022.
As a sexagenarian market philosopher soon to become a septuagenarian market philosopher, I am finding myself somewhat embarrassed when younger people (other than family) ask me my opinion on something. I usually try to reply to their inquiry in the manner in which my father (RCAF WWII navigator William Roland Ballanger) used to advise me in the very early days of my hockey career when some youngster would come up for an autograph or a simple “Hi Mike” to which I would always stop, bend down to his height, extend my hand, and say, “Hello to you, and what would your name be?” at which point he (or she) would look up to their parent(s) for guidance and then (almost always) tell me.
At this point in the encounter, I would offer the beaming youngster my hand and as we shook, I would say, “It is a great pleasure to meet you, and thank you for saying hello.”
That behavior came from RCAF Navigator W.R. Ballanger who recounted the story from his life that dwelled in the realm of geopolitical nonsense in the days after the Nazi's threw a historically successful and prosperous German society into total ruin and starvation.
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Thursday, July 21, 2022
Test drive EWI's Financial Forecast Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
Market action this year has hurt A LOT of people. Cryptos. Meme stocks. Tech stocks. We've seen some huge percentage declines -- all against a backdrop of historic leaps in interest rates and inflation.
Lifestyles irrevocably changed, not for the better.
Economists missed it. The Fed missed it. Politicians missed it.
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Thursday, July 21, 2022
Stock Market Peril Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:
(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).
More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.
Thursday, July 21, 2022
Important: Are your Stocks in Stage 1, 2, 3, or 4? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Submissions
Every investor is asking the same question: When will stocks bottom?
As you know, the S&P 500 is down 20% this year and firmly in a bear market.
Since 1929, the S&P 500’s had 14 bear markets... lasting around 19 months, on average. Which means if the current bear market lasts an “average” length, we’ll see the bottom next summer.
But asking when stocks as a whole will bottom is the WRONG question. Instead, investors should be asking…
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Dow Stock Market 2022 Forecast Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market bounce fizzled out at 4180, thus no break above 4200 to target a trend to 4290 let alone anything higher and one does not need to look far for the culprit. CPLIE of 8.6% as the consensus and likely the FED had convinced themselves to expect inflation to have peaked hence triggering a whiff of panic as to what the Fed will do next to combat inflation.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Gold Is Getting Ready to Follow in Junior Miners’ Footsteps / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As junior miners continue to rise and the USD keeps falling, it seems like a matter of a short time before gold soars. It only needs a proper trigger.
Gold is doing pretty much nothing these days, but junior miners tell us what gold’s going to do next. It’s most likely to rally in the short term.
Why? Because the mining stocks tend to lead gold higher and lower, and looking at the relative performance of both parts of the precious metals sector, we see that this time, miners are already moving higher, while gold is getting ready to follow in miners’ footsteps. Let’s take a closer look at what junior miners (the GDXJ) did recently.
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
What’s with all the Pretend Economists all of a Sudden? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Is everyone an economist now?These days, everyone I speak with has a strong opinion on the economy.
Most are convinced things will get worse.
They think the US economy is headed off a cliff, and that inflation is here to stay.
As a result, they also want nothing to do with stocks. They’re certain that the entire market is about to collapse.
I see things differently…
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Bitcoin Scams to Be on the Lookout For / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Steve_Barker
Crypto scams are on the rise, with CNBC reporting that in 2021 "a record $14 billion" was snatched by cyber criminals in all sorts of ways!
Bitcoin scams are a major part of the fraud that's been happening in recent years. This makes sense since Bitcoin has the largest market cap by far more than any other cryptocurrency.
In this guide, we'll delve into the shady world of Bitcoin and crypto scams. Read this article in full to get the lowdown on everything you should look out for and aim to avoid in terms of crypto scams!
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Stock Market Trend Pattern 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My stock market big picture remains to expect the Dow to target a trend towards a probable bottom by late August / Early September at approx Dow 29,600 So far the stock market has not done anything to negate this scenario and thus remains the direction of travel ahead of my next stock market in-depth analysis.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
UK Heat Wave 49.3c Record Temperature! LONDON'S BURNING! FIRES! We are ALL GOING TO DIE!!! / Local / Climate Change
By: Eliza_Walayat
Temps hit a new record high of 49.3c in Sheffield with similar readings across the UK that continued to suffer the global warming consequences of a Killer heatwave, sparking fires across the UK including a major incident being declared in London!
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Monday, July 18, 2022
The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every bull market is followed by a bear market and every bear market is followed by a bull market, where courtesy of the electron and inflation mega-trends the general indices are on an upwards exponential trend trajectory. Thus all bear markets are living on borrowed time and thus ones focus should be on accumulating positions in good stocks i.e. those that actually generate earnings and have good prospects for continuing earnings growth that courtesy of bear market negative sentiment results in prices trading to under value stocks i.e. to under X18 earnings, where everything above X18 is carrying a premium which is why I completely sold out of many stocks last year such as Amazon and Nvidia even though they had yet to peak due to the risks of a valuation reset as I covered in my in-depth analysis of August 2021
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Monday, July 18, 2022
Stock Market Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a slow growth phase, it was (and will be) up to tech to outperform value. Also healthcare is likely to see brighter times ahead. If I were to pick two reasons for why I think stocks are bottoming here, it would be the risk-on turn in bonds accompanied by the 10-year yield soundly below 3.25%, and the capitulation in oil stocks (former star performer as these are likely to get pulled down among the last sectors while the key laggards such as tech are on the verge of starting to outperform) coupled with oil holding my $93 support.
Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture.
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Monday, July 18, 2022
Learn How To Improve Your Customer Relations / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
Customer service is one of the most important aspects of any business. It can make or break a company, and it’s essential to get it right. We’ll teach you how to improve your customer relations so that you can provide the best possible service to your customers. We’ll cover everything from communication and problem-solving to empathy and customer retention. So whether you’re just starting out in business or you’ve been doing it for years, read on for tips and advice that will help you take your customer service skills to the next level!
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Monday, July 18, 2022
UK HEATWAVE 47.9c RECORD Temperature in Sheffield - EXTREME WEATHER RED WARNING / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
They said to expect UK temperatures to break above 40c, well the city of Sheffield saw temperatures soar well beyond 40c traveling all the way to a record busting 47.9c! This is truly extreme weather for the UK, and heat waves such as this are going to become more common due to global warming, the UK could even see temperatures break above 50c that will likely see many thousands of Brit's dropping dead like flies due to not being used to the high temps, lack of experience and infrastructure!
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
Dow Stock Market 2022 Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is brief stock market update as I seek to complete my extensive analysis of the US Housing Market which the following contents list indicates extent of -
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
Wipeout! New Update on Our "Green Bond" Investing (ESG) Forecast / Companies / Renewable Energy
By: EWI
Excessive euphoria in financial markets is usually a big reason to be "skeptical"
Environmental, Social and Governance bonds (ESG) -- also called "green" bonds -- are offered by companies which want to advance the causes of social justice, social inclusion and green technology.
This form of debt had been steadily gaining in popularity -- going from sales of less than $100 billion in 2015 to around $800 billion in 2020.
For instance, here's an Oct. 9, 2020 headline from Pensions & Investments:
University of Toronto's $7 billion fund makes bet on ESG debt
However, the Elliott wave structure of a global green-bond index was sending a warning signal.
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