Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, December 09, 2011
Aussie Dollar Drops on China Economic Weakness / Currencies / Forex Trading
While European politicians bicker, another global worry flashed in the small hours of this morning. China has been the engine of global growth in recent years but today's economic data came in below expectations in many areas. As a major supplier of China, Australia has been hit hard by this so far with the AUD/USD down 0.70% and the NZD/USD down by a similar margin.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
The European Debt Crisis and Unstable Currency Markets / Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Even the middle of the road journalists are beginning to question Europe’s elected and appointed leadership. This past Monday the plan for the euro zone was laid out for a final capitulation to world government. The financial crisis has been handled from behind the scenes by the Fed, so that Germany’s Chancellor Merkel and France’s President can concentrate on more important matters, namely the final federalization of the euro zone to be followed by the entrapment of the remainder of the European Union.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
The Three Must-Own Currencies of 2012 / Currencies / Forex Trading
Martin Hutchinson writes: If 2011 taught us one thing, it's that currency investing can be a dangerous business.
For instance, the euro - the simplest of hedges against a declining dollar and the U.S. Federal Reserve's expansive monetary policy - has run into difficulties, losing billions for even the most sophisticated Wall Street banks.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Euro most expensive in Greece / Currencies / Euro
The euro is overvalued in several countries of Southern Europe. The joint European currency is undervalued in other countries of the European continent, particularly in the north and in the center of the EU. The euro is most expensive in Greece and least expensive in Belgium, experts said.
Europe's southern states, which have debt problems, are supposed to be interested in a weaker euro. However, it is impossible to do it in one separate state since the currency is common for many other countries.
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Monday, December 05, 2011
US Dollar Technical Update / Currencies / US Dollar
In the coming weeks you will hear me discuss the current trade as a "credit event that equity will be forced to acknowledge." It is important to understand what will drive equity prices. The main stream media will make up "excuses" for price action but I believe as always they will be misguided.
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Saturday, December 03, 2011
Euro Dollars - The Great Dollar Overhang and Missing M3 Component - Gold and Silver / Currencies / US Dollar
These figures are from the Preliminary BIS Reports of November 2011 which reflect reporting bank positions as of the Jun 2011 quarter. Obviously therefore they do not yet reflect the recent Fed expansion of the swap lines for dollars. The first chart represents the total dollars held by banks as 'foreign currency.'
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Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Guide to Saving the Euro / Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Can the euro be saved? Is it possible to stem the flight of money from the periphery into the core? With a botched German auction in mind, investors are now wondering whether it’s possible to prevent a flight out of “all things euro”? We examine the dual challenges of fiscal sustainability and bank solvency in this analysis, with the not-so-modest title “Guide to Save the Euro”.
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Euro May Not Survive Christmas / Currencies / Euro
The European debt crisis is gathering pace. The debt of the Eurozone countries totals 89 percent of the GDP vs. the required 60 percent. The crisis has hit both secondary and primary economies. The public debt of Greece makes up 166 percent of the GDP, Portugal - 106 percent. The largest economies of the region also exceed the limit: Germany - 83 percent of the GDP, France - 87 percent, Spain - 67 percent of the GDP.
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011
The Anglo-American Century and Why the Financial Engineers Hate Gold and Silver / Currencies / Fiat Currency
'Nominal GDP targeting' is a way of raising the Fed's inflation target without admitting to it explicitly.
Nominal GDP means that one can meet their growth target simply by inflating the money supply to make up the difference between 'real growth' and 'headline growth.'
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
The Money Crisis' First Blush, The Gold Pool Debate / Currencies / Fiat Currency
"I cannot think of anything which would more surely lead to a danger of all-round deflation than the collapse of international monetary confidence."
- Roy Jenkins, then British chancellor, debate on the London Gold Pool, 18 March 1968
This SUMMER'S FIRST U.S. debt downgrade came after Washington failed to fix the debt ceiling one way or the other. Three months later, and Washington just failed again.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Has the Kiwi Dollar Hit Bottom? / Currencies / Forex Trading
The financial markets are on the rebound this morning with beaten up currencies leading the bounce. The NZD/USD has been hammered through November, but is the biggest gaining dollar pair, up 0.56%. The AUD/USD is not far behind, up 0.52%.
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Monday, November 21, 2011
Currency Markets Start Week on Back Foot / Currencies / Forex Trading
This morning we're seeing markets start with a familiar cautious tone. The weekend news flow didn't throw up any big negatives, but hasn't been any big positives either. The Yen and US dollar are the currencies in demand so far this morning with the biggest mover being the AUD/JPY which is down 0.55%. The GBP/JPY isn't far behind at -0.43% this morning.
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Friday, November 18, 2011
Japanese Yen Set For Major Reversal / Currencies / Japanese Yen
This is a 20-year (monthly) chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The dollar has declined in a primary down-trend since early 2008. Long-term support at 80 failed to halt the fall and the greenback is now ranging between ¥75 and ¥80.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Is Germany Eyeing the Euro Exit? / Currencies / Euro
German leaders talk about "more Europe"…but are they just buying time…?
THIS IS just an idea – but perhaps Germany is only pretending to want more European integration.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Why Is There a Euro Crisis? / Currencies / Euro
On Thursday, October 28, 2011, prices of European stocks soared. Big banks like Société Générale (+22.54%), BNP Paribas (+19.92%), Commerzbank (+16.49%) or Deutsche Bank (+15.35%) experienced fantastic one-day gains. What happened?
Today's banks are not free-market institutions. They live in a symbiosis with governments that they are financing. The banks' survival depends on privileges and government interventions. Such an intervention explains the unusual stock gains. On Wednesday night, an EU summit had limited the losses that European banks will take for financing the irresponsible Greek government to 50 percent. Moreover, the summit showed that the European political elite is willing to keep the game going and continue to bail out the government of Greece and other peripheral countries. Everyone who receives money from the Greek government benefits from the bailout: Greek public employees, pensioners, unemployed, subsidized sectors, Greek banks — but also French and German banks.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Odds Stacked Against Eurozone, Euro Currency Likely to Sink / Currencies / Euro
What do the “Big Fitz,” the largest ship ever to sail the Great Lakes, and the Eurozone have in common? Hint: the former sank without a trace. Or, as Grant Williams so eloquently puts it, in his Things That Make You Go Hmmm... for Nov. 13 (this week's Outside the Box), “One can't help but think ... that this week may well have brought us to the wall at the end of the road down which Europe has been kicking the can for quite some time now.”
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Tuesday, November 15, 2011
U.S. Dollar Teetering on the Abyss / Currencies / US Dollar
We all better hope I'm wrong on this one, but I think the CRB just put in its three year cycle low in October. I'm also afraid that Bernanke has done irreparable damage to the dollar. If I'm right about both of those assumptions then we are on the brink of a historic inflationary period.
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Friday, November 11, 2011
The Beginning of the End of Fiat Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Last week, the G-20 meetings did not produce an expanded bailout fund for the eurozone. While this may bode well for the long-term solvency of the member-states (moral hazard and all), it has also triggered a market reaction that I expect to help destabilize the common currency. Yesterday's market moves suggested that this development is good for the dollar and bad for gold. Allow me to step back from the stampeding herd to evaluate whether they are, in fact, moving in the right direction.
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Thursday, November 10, 2011
Costless, Limitless, Meaningless Money, Part II / Currencies / Fiat Currency
If this risks sounding metaphysical, so it should... SO a DOLLAR is still a Dollar, just as Richard Nixon told US citizens it was 40 years ago this summer.
Whether the Euro will be worth anything next week, who can say? But since then, 15 August 1971, that's all the Dollar has been – one dollar alone, rather than a quantity of rare, indestructible gold bullion, that "barbarous relic" of pre-Industrial superstition, and beloved of the 21st century's fastest-growing, wealth-accumulating societies today.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Currency Markets Start with Early Weakness - Will it Reverse Like Yesterday? / Currencies / Forex Trading
The morning moves so far mirror what we say yesterday with the Australian dollar leading the fallers. It's almost a carbon copy of yesterday's start which ended with most markets in the black for today as news of Berlusconi's imminent resignation spread.
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