Saturday, May 13, 2017
Trump Deficit Spending Will Stop Tax Reform / Politics / Taxes
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Many people still assume a big tax cut is coming. I think we won’t get any tax cut at all—but if we do, it will cause another problem.
In other words, we’re going to lose either way.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
GDX Gold Mining Stocks’ Q1’17 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been slammed by a sharp gold pullback in recent weeks, spawning today’s bearish sentiment. Traders often get caught up in the emotional swings generated by this volatile sector. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, revealing gold mining’s hard fundamental realities which dispel the obscuring sentiment fogs. The major gold miners’ profitability actually just exploded higher in Q1!
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. Some companies in other countries with half-year reporting instead of quarterly even follow suit.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Will Crude Oil Stocks Breaks above Medium-term Resistance Line? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In recent weeks crude oil came back below the barrier of $50, which triggered declines and resulted in a drop to almost six-month lows. Despite this move, oil bulls pushed the commodity higher, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakdowns under important support levels. What happened at the same time with oil stocks? Will we see higher values of the XOI in the coming weeks?
Let’s jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out what can we infer from them about future moves.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Gold Price in May 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The mining stocks moved higher yesterday and this move can be explained neither by a move higher in gold or silver, nor by a substantial rally in the main stock indices. Does the miners’ strength indicate a looming turnaround?
Quite likely yes, but the emphasis should be put on “looming” and on the fact that any turnaround here is not likely to be very significant. Let’s take a look at the charts for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and check the outlook for gold price in May.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
The Jobs Market Has Divided Into People Who Are Tech Savvy And Those Who Aren’t / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Things keep changing. And at an accelerating pace. One of the most important things to write about—and the most difficult—is the future of work. New Technology destroys old jobs, but it would also create new jobs and opportunities.
A clear example of this is the use of drone technology by the military. It requires about 100 people to prep and launch and maintain an F-16 for a single mission. Keeping an unmanned predator drone in the air for 24 hours requires about 168 workers.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
A Look at the Silver/Gold Ratio, Inflation/Deflation and the Yield Curve / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Gary_Tanashian
An email from a reader (of the eLetter, I think) calling me out on trying to make too many correlations in a dysfunctional market (I think that was his bottom line point, and he’s got a good point) got me thinking about the Silver/Gold ratio and some pretty interesting post-2011 dysfunction (so it seems) in the markets.
Markets that made sense in certain ways prior to 2011 no longer make sense in the same ways. For instance, the S&P 500 used to be correlated to the Silver/Gold ratio, which itself was positively correlated to inflation and/or inflationary economic growth. Gold also liked for silver to be leading it, not the other way around.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Macron’s French Election Triumph Removes Eurozone Political Risk / Currencies / Euro
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
By EWFHendra : Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election last Sunday, defeating Marine Le Pen, a far-right nationalist who wanted to take France out of the European Union. Markets had feared that Le Pen’s win could threaten the EU project, but Macron’s win has eliminated uncertainty regarding France’s membership of the Euro and removed the risk of near-term severe political shock to France and wider Europe. The Euro went above $1.10 briefly, but since then has pulled back. The upwards move was not dramatic than the first round of French elections as many traders have anticipated Macron’s victory and thus victory was already well priced in.
Friday, May 12, 2017
The Bearish Gold Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The Bearish Gold Bull was the title of my presentation last weekend at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver, British Columbia. While the title could be ascribed to me personally for my recent tendency towards conservative and cautious views, it more importantly describes the current dichotomy in the gold sector. The mining sector saw its fundamentals hit rock bottom in 2014-2015 and became “bombed out” at the end of 2015. However, while parts of the industry have performed well, as a whole it has been unable to push higher after a torrid recovery in early 2016. A big reason is the outlook for metals prices suggests lower prices before any large advance. Until metals prices are ready to rise, the miners may find themselves in a bearish bull.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Gold is About to Shine Again! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: G7 Meetings, German Prelim GDP q/q, USD: G7 Meetings, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m.
Friday, May 12, 2017
The Blockchain: A Gold and Silver Launchpad? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: MoneyMetals
A new day is dawning for precious metals. Gold and silver – the world's oldest money – are "connecting" with the newest money, digital cryptocurrencies. The final outcome of this nexus is unpredictable, but it is foolhardy to ignore what is taking place.
Central governments around the globe have waged, against their own citizens, a virtual "War on Cash." Efforts by Sweden to become "cash-free;" progressive "downsizing" of Eurozone currency units; a currency recall in India that affected 1.3 billion people; solemn talk about eliminating $100 and even $50 bills in the U.S. - all in the supposed fight against "drug dealing and tax evasion."
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Robots May Perform Half The Jobs In The US Within 20 Years: Here’s What That Could Mean / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Perhaps you don’t think the change that is upon us is a profound one. But consider this: Within two decades, half the jobs in this country may be performed by robots. What then of our unemployment rate? And what of our social safety net?
Opinion is divided. Will the next technological wave further skew the wealth distribution toward the uber-rich? Or will it ultimately create more entrepreneurial and job opportunities than it destroys?
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Walkers Pay Packet Instant Win Morrisons 17% Price Cut After 50% Price Hike! / ConsumerWatch / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
It looks like Morrisons cunning plan of hiking the price of Walkers crisps multi-packs by 50% to ride on the coat tails of Walkers latest Pay Packet £5 to £28k instant win promotion has FAILED. As Morrisons has now cut the price of Walkers crisps multi-packs from £1.50 to £1.25 though barely 3 weeks ago they were being sold for £1. Find out more in our latest video in the Walkers crisps saga.
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Brace Yourself For The Coming Economic Transformation, Sliding Down the Social Class Scale / Politics / Social Issues
By: John_Mauldin
If the average person in the US feels as though they are going nowhere fast, there is a real reason for it.
Federal Reserve data shows people are earning less than they did 17 years ago. But the real story is even worse than that.
The chart below shows that median income in the US is actually down over the last 17 years and is only 3% higher now than it was 30 years ago. Those are inflation-adjusted numbers.
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Thursday, May 11, 2017
Could Breakthrough Cancer Treatments Raise Industrial Gold Demand? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Shannara Johnson : Precious metals aren’t just used as investments and for jewelry—some of them have a wide range of industrial applications as well.
Silver, for example, is used (and used up) in a multitude of products, from solar panels to glass coatings, LED chips, semiconductors, touch screens, water purification, and more.
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Thursday, May 11, 2017
There’s a New Mafia in Town, American Dream Dead? / Politics / US Politics
By: Harry_Dent
Just look at this chart!
If you were born in 1980, you only have a 50% chance of making more money than your parents.
But if you were born in 1950, you had a 79% chance, according to research that Raj Chetty and his team of economists did.
That’s one heck of a drop!
Thursday, May 11, 2017
What’s the Fed Factor in US Treasury Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Harry_Dent
I hate taxes.I don’t begrudge paying for a functioning government, it’s the dysfunctional favoritism that ticks me off.
This amorphous blob in Washington sucks dollars out of my wallet and then tells me not to worry about how it’s spent, even as I watch the government hand my dollars out like candy.
I’m still beside myself about General Motors.
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Thursday, May 11, 2017
SPX is Weaker, But No Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are down, but not enough to give a signal, yet. The SPX may go either way, so be warned of some chaotic moments today.
ZeroHedge reports, “Asian stocks rose lifted by commodity names; European equities trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record high Wednesday and investors prepared for earnings from retailers; we expect the now general vol selling program to promptly lift the S&P into new all time highs minutes after today's open.”
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Thursday, May 11, 2017
Gold Exports From U.S. – Something Big Is Happening / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
by SRSRoccoReport.com : Most Americans didn’t realize it, but something BIG changed in the U.S. gold market in the beginning of 2017. While precious metals sentiment and buying in the U.S. has dropped off considerably in the first quarter of 2017, the East continues to acquire gold, HAND OVER FIST.
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs - Topping Pattern Or Just Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Gold’s Big Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Hubert_Moolman
Gold is currently trading near a critical level, from where a massive move up or down is imminent. One of the measures that illustrate we are a close to a big move, is the following resistance line on the gold chart that I have previously highlighted. Below, is a gold chart (from tradingview.net) with the resistance line indicated:
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