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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Politics

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called - Let the Games Begin! / Politics / BrExit

By: Nadeem_Walayat

On Wednesday 29th March 2017 Theresa May's post man in Brussels hand delivered a 6 page letter to Donald Tusk the President of the European Council, triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty starting the formal process for the UK exiting the European Union within 2 years' time, with the negotiations expected to begin during May following the conclusion of the French Presidential elections.

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Companies

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Tesco Collapses Into a Sink Hole, Stock Price Down 10% in 3 Trading Days! / Companies / Tesco

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whist the mainstream media focuses on some of Tesco's latest result numbers, mostly painting a bright picture of Britain's supermarket giant recovering, with sales up for the first time in 7 years and with the SFO false accounting scandal behind it.

Tesco reports first sales growth in 7 years - FT 12th April

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.

"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe

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Politics

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China... Will They Ever Learn? / Politics / US Military

By: DeviantInvestor

In the 1960s Peter, Paul and Mary popularized a song written by Pete Seeger – “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?

The short version is:

Where have all the flowers gone?

Young girls have picked them.

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Companies

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

The Smart Money Is Piling Into Regenerative Medicine / Companies / BioTech

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK COX : The Congressional Budget Office released its long-term budget outlook. This report should have sparked a national discussion about societal aging, but big media largely ignored it.

Fortunately, there are signs that smart investors are hedging this failure by investing in regenerative medicine (RM).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

If You Invest In Stocks Now, Expect No More Than 3% Returns In The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY JOHN MAULDIN : We didn’t have all of this big data or computing power when I started in the investment publishing industry in 1982. But we do today.

This data not only shows us the present state of the stock market, but also tells what that means in terms of probable returns over the coming 7, 10, and 12 years and what it means in terms of relative risks.

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Politics

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Maps That Explain Wars In The Middle East And North Africa / Politics / Middle East

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The Middle East and North Africa region runs from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean and from Turkey to Yemen. The bulk of the region is along five waterways: The Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea.

Here are four maps that explain the dynamics and inherited divisions in these regions. (Download my FREE e-book, The World Explained in Maps, to get more insight into the forces shaping our physical and financial worlds.)  

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Politics

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Theresa May Calls Snap BrExit UK General Election Capitalising on Crippled Labour Party / Politics / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Theresa May surprises everyone by calling a BrExit snap UK General Election on 8th June 2017. And this really is a surprise to all because previously she has repeatedly stated that she would not be calling an early general election. Instead in a statement today she made clear that her slender majority in the House of Commons was not large enough to secure a strong BrExit outcome for the United Kingdom.

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Companies

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Absurd Valuations on Unprofitable Tech Stocks / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: BATR

The Treasury Secretary chimes in on what any market watcher should know instinctively. Mnuchin talks tech: 'I don't understand these valuations', yet the price on promises and future expectation of earnings has a large amount of the equity speculators and computerized trading in a crisis of sanity. Avoiding the fundamental relationship that a stock value is based upon the ability of a company to turn a profit, has become the hottest investment hoax since Bernard Madoff was pitching his Ponzi scheme. Uber, Snapchat and Twitter may be high flyers for the smart set, but for rational venture capitalists, plunking down gambles on risky enterprises that only feed on publicity hype is a sure bet on going broke.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Big Day for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a very strong session today. The day started out with a pop to the upside, a quick pullback retest, and then they were off to test resistance. For the next several hours the Nasdaq 100 went sideways, and consolidated in coil patterns. The S&P 500 actually moved up in a rising channel, and at the end of the day exploded to the upside, tested secondary resistance, and close right there. These are very key levels near 5400 Nasdaq 100, and the 2349-50 area for the S&P 500, and that’s where they closed.

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Currencies

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

The Philippine Peso Squeeze  / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the first quarter, the Philippine peso depreciated against the US dollar. Internationally, this was attributed to President Duterte’s policies. In reality, it has a lot to do with the expected US rate hikes. But there is a reason why misguided geopolitics now overshadows Philippines.

In the recent quarter, the Philippine peso depreciated by 0.88 percent against the US dollar. It was the only currency in Asia to do so. For the first time since 2009, the peso drifted to 50 per US dollar.
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Economics

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Is US Economy at the Cusp of the Next Recession? or Maybe Worse? / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Plunger

Part II takes a look at the macro economic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- its not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade.

When the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked”– Warren Buffet

“This time around everything gets revealed in the next recession”-Plunger

In the next recession those leaning the wrong way… the levered players, will be forced to heave out their non-productive assets at fire sale prices. Commodity producers with entrenched costs will have to increase production as lower prices beget even lower prices since insufficient cash flows can only be recovered through higher volume production.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Stock Market Lindsay Long Term Intervals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

The March 20 Market Update showed our Long Term interval forecast – both 15 and 12 year intervals. As we are now seeing the biggest pullback in the Dow since last autumn we have to assume that the 15yr interval is exerting its influence and the decline won’t end until the 12yr interval (May-November, 2017) takes over.

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Housing-Market

Monday, April 17, 2017

US Housing Market Mortgage Delinquency Rates Increase & 3X ETFs / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Delinquency rates in Single Family Residential Mortgages and other Consumer Loans began to climb through the later half of 2016 and early 2017.  The timing of this delinquency rate increase coincided almost identically with the Fed increases in their Funds Rate.  Additionally, commercial loan origination stalled for the first time since 2008-2011 (prior to that was a stall in 2000).

As you’ve been likely been following our daily video market analysis, you’ll know that we believe the market is still in a bullish trend and that we expect this upward price action to continue for a while.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 17, 2017

Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.

The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.

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Politics

Monday, April 17, 2017

‘Ruralization’ and ‘Agriculturization’: The Last Option for Human Survival and Growth... / Politics / Social Issues

By: Dr_R_M_Mathew

... in the Age of Economic Crises and Terrorism

From the Myth of Growth and Abundance, the Humanity has entered into the Reality of Poverty and Survival, besides the Prolonged Economic Crisis for the destabilization of the rural economies, drastic decline of farm or food production and shrinking global economy as the byproducts of urbanization and aggressive industrialization.  Deflating drinking and irrigation water supply due to changes in seasons and the weather, rising atmospheric heat or cold resulting in floods, draughts and wild fire and above all encroachments of fertile farm lands for industrialization and urbanization have become more evident.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 17, 2017

Emerging Markets Very Bullish, Close To Major Breakout / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: InvestingHaven

Emerging markets look increasingly bullish with each passing day. It was only three weeks ago that emerging markets were bullish enough to call for an official breakout. With that, our emerging markets forecast for 2017 proves to be accurate, as well as our call that emerging markets would become the investment of 2017.

As said, emerging markets look more bullish with the day. And they are only 6 percent away from a major event: a secular breakout. If that materializes, it would be MAJOR news, and, guess what, financial media will not be talking about it!

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Politics

Monday, April 17, 2017

Turkey's President Wins Sweeping Powers in Cliffhanger Vote / Politics / Turkey

By: STRATFOR

In an apparent cliffhanger victory, with challenges from the opposition still outstanding, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President (and now party leader) Recep Tayyip Erdogan are claiming a hairline victory in a decisive referendum that will greatly empower the presidency. Some 48 million of 55 million eligible voters cast ballots on a raft of 18 constitutional amendments that will fundamentally alter the Turkish government, taking effect in the next scheduled election in 2019. With nearly all votes counted, the "Yes" vote garnered 51.34 percent of the vote with the "No" vote coming in close behind with 48.66 percent of the vote, according to state-run Anadolu Agency.

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Commodities

Monday, April 17, 2017

How Investors Can Buy Gold At A 6% Discount Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : Since the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 13% while the S&P 500 is up 11%. One victim of the move into risk assets was gold, which plunged over 13% in the weeks following the election.

Although gold prices have since recovered some of their losses, the yellow metal’s drop has created a buying opportunity for those wanting to add bullion to their portfolios.

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