Saturday, January 02, 2016

A 'Witch's Brew' Bubbling in Bond Market ETFs / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

We believe the Credit Cycle has turned and with it will come some massive unexpected shocks. One of these will be the fall out in the Bond Market, centered around the dramatic growth explosion in Bond ETFs coupled with the post financial crisis regulatory changes that effectively removed banks from making markets in corporate bonds. It is a 'Witch's Brew' with a flattening yield curve bringing it to a boil.

Saturday, January 02, 2016

Stock Market Risk On? Risk Off? Find Out Where Your Money Lies / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: EWI

A peek at the new free report from the editors of our Financial Forecast Service

It's almost Christmas, "the hap-happiest season of all." Yet, here's a sobering fact for U.S. investors: S&P 500 stocks are actually lower now than at the end of last year (chart: Google Finance):

Friday, January 01, 2016

Stocks Bull Market Continues With 9% Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

A choppy week to end the year. The market started Monday at SPX 2061. After a gap down opening on Monday, and drop to SPX 2044, the market rallied to 2082 with a gap up opening on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday were all downhill, aided by a gap down opening Thursday, and the market ended the week at SPX 2044. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.70%, and the DJ World lost 0.60%. Economic reports for the week were light and negative. On the downtick: the WLEI, Chicago PMI, pending homes sales and the weekly jobless claims were higher. On the uptick: consumer confidence. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, monthly Payrolls, and the ISMs. Happy New Year!

Friday, January 01, 2016

Tek Stocks SEMI Book-to-Bill Ratio Decelerates as Expected, Semis Not Under Valued / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Gary_Tanashian

I see analysis out there discussing the Semiconductor sector as a whole as being under valued relative to other stock market sectors. This seems to be based on the fact that the SOX chart has not made nearly the catch up move that for example, the NDX has in its post 2000 recovery.

While charts can provide many helpful views to probabilities, they cannot get inside an industry and divine the importance of a sub-sector (Semi Equipment; AMAT, LRCX, etc.) within a sector as a whole. The equipment companies (which I am short) are the Canary's Canary, with the Semi sector in general being an economic Canary in a Coal Mine.

Friday, January 01, 2016

China's Security of Supply / Economics / China Economy

By: Richard_Mills

Consider:

• There is a slowing of production and dwindling of reserves at many of the world's largest mines.
• All the oz's or pounds are never recovered from a mine - they simply becomes too expensive to recover.
• The pace of new elephant-sized discoveries has decreased in the mining industry.
• Discoveries are smaller and in less accessible regions.
• Mineralogy & metallurgy is more complicated making extraction of metals from the mined ore increasingly more complex and expensive.
• Mining is cyclical which makes mining companies reluctant to spend on exploration and development.
• A looming skills shortage
• There is no substitute for many metals except other metals - plastic piping is one exception.
• Metal markets are small so speculation is a larger factor.
• There hasn't been a new technology shift in mining for decades - heap leach and open pit mining come to mind but they are both decades old innovation.
• Country risk - resource extraction companies, because the number of discoveries was falling and existing deposits were being quickly depleted, have had to diversify away from the traditional geo-politically safe producing countries. The move out of these "safe haven" countries has exposed investors to a lot of additional risk.
• Lack of recognition for population growth, growing middle class w/disposable incomes and urbanization as on-going demand growth factors.
• Climate change.

Friday, January 01, 2016

Gold Another Losing Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

Here is a long term chart (monthly) showing where the price of gold ended last year ( 2014 ) and where it is ending up this year.

Friday, January 01, 2016

How To Make 8% Every Year With Zero Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

Is it possible to make 8% investing money in stocks every year with zero risk?

Yes.

How?

Well, by now, all investors should know that there are no longer stock ‘markets’. They have been replaced by stock ‘carnivals’. Carnivals are collections of games that are rigged by the owner of the carnival. Think of it this way. We could bet money on basketball games but surely we would not be correct all the time. In a fair game, our team would lose sometimes. But what if we bet our money on a game that was rigged? The winner was selected before the game started. So instead of betting money on an NBA game, what if we bet our money on the Harlem Globetrotters? They have only lost a couple of games in the last 50 years and will lose even fewer in the next 50 years. Why? Of course the game is rigged. The game is for our entertainment and not a true competition of basketball skills. It is an exhibition or sorts.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2015 - Stock Bull Market Splutters into 2016 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stocks bull market entered it's 7th calendar year at 17,823 and ended the year at 17,425, down 398 points -2.2%, primarily as a result of the Dow having entered into a trading range for the last 2 months of the year, a time when stocks are usually expected to perform well during a santa rally. However this years end of year weakness can be put down primarily to the Mid December Fed decision to start to raise U.S. interest rates, a decision that the Fed had been flagging the prospects of for some time.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Fueling Gold Price 2016 Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold certainly had a rough year in 2015, grinding inexorably lower on Fed-rate-hike fears and investor abandonment.  But gold is poised to rebound dramatically in this new year, mean reverting out of its recent deep secular lows.  The drivers of gold’s weakness have soared to such extremes that they have to reverse hard.  The resulting heavy buying from dominant groups of traders will fuel gold’s mighty 2016 upleg.

Investment demand, or lack thereof, is what overwhelmingly drives the gold price.  Investment certainly isn’t the largest component of gold demand, a crown held by jewelry at roughly 4/7ths of the total.  But that is somewhat misleading, as gold’s investment merits are the primary reason Asians flock to gold jewelry.  But since global jewelry demand is fairly consistent, it’s not what drives the gold price on the margin.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Stock Market Topping Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Savage

As you can see in the NYA chart below the SPX, the underlying stock market is topping out and likely trying to begin a bear market. The NYA quit going up as soon as the dollar started to surge in May of last year.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Will A Cascading 'Crackup-Boom' Start In The 'Peripheral Nations'? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Gordon_T_Long

This Chart Is Regularly In Gordontlong.Com's Monthly Mata Report

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Crude Oil and Gold – What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12 and an initial downside target at $33.66) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil moved higher yesterday, the key resistance lines continue to keep gains in check. What does it mean for the commodity? Will the oil-to-gold ratio give us more clues about future moves?

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Tech Stocks and Gold Big Picture, Big Moves Brewing / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Rambus_Chartology

Since gold topped out in 2011 it has been in a confirmed and unrelenting bear market. Since that bull market high in gold the INDU has been outperforming gold in a big way. The first chart I would like to show you is a combo chart which has the INDU:GOLD ratio chart on top and GOLD on the bottom. As you can see both the INDU:GOLD ratio chart on top and GOLD on the bottom reversed direction in 2011 with the ratio chart on top showing the INDU moving in a near parabolic move against gold. Gold on the bottom chart is showing a near parabolic move lower since its 2011 bull market peak. Since October of this year both have hit their respective parabolic trendlines as shown by the blue arrows. If this combo chart continues to play out then we should see the INDU keep outperforming gold going forward. The ratio chart on top shows the price action getting very close to breaking out into new highs and gold is very close to breaking down to new lows since the big reversal took place in 2011. All this chart means is that the INDU should keep outperforming gold until something changes this fact.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Why Austrian Investing Is Important In The Era Of State Imposed Fiat Money / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: GoldSilverWorlds

We are living in extreme times. When it comes to investing, the economy and markets, the extreme monetary policies of central banks all over the world should be top of mind of every investor.

To make our point, we refer to the 3 following charts that readers know by now … But it always helps to put things in perpsective. Our focus here is on the time period as of 1971 which will likely go in history books as the era of the “Great Monetary Experiment” (or something alike).

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Gold and Silver 2016 Outlook / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector will close 2015 entrenched in a seemingly forever bear market. Most of the sector has been in a bear market for over four and a half years. Gold’s bear market will reach four and a half years in a few months. Meanwhile the US Dollar’s bull market remains strong and is likely to continue. In this article we discuss our 2016 big picture outlook for the US Dollar, Gold and gold stocks.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

A Look Back At Stock Market 2015...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

While 2015 was a boring year for the market, it wasn't boring for traders, and the experience overall was not a good one. It was the year of transition. The year where the bulls didn't get spoon fed the way they had for so many years prior. They had become accustomed to getting exactly what they want all the time. If the market fell a bit, no worries. It'll just blast back up in short order. It was the year when the market said not so easy this time. Time after time! As the year moved along we saw the bull-bear spread tumble lower, getting as low as 7% last week after hitting near 47% just a few months back. The constant neutrality has been playing on the emotions of those ravaging bulls. The giving-up process began after roughly eight months of being left in the cold due to high expectations.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Keep Alert for a Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX remains above its 50-day Moving Average at 2066.13. However, it may be finalizing a reversal pattern that may lead to lower prices. Keep an eye out for the breakdown.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Stock Market December 2015: Into 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Donald_W_Dony

Bull market tailwinds continue to push the S&P 500 forward in 2016. Positive markers include the rising U.S. dollar, the trend of the U.S. Yield Curve, the on-going decline in unemployment and the steady upward trend in the U.S. Consumer confidence.

Over the past 40 years, the U.S. dollar has had a close relationship with the S&P 500.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

The Crude Oil Price 2016 Prediction Game / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Anybody who tells you they know where the oil market is headed for 2016 is inexperienced, too stupid to realize there are far too many variables in play that are unknowable to predict with any accuracy their effects on other variables in the oil equation, talking their own respective books, just piling in with the recent herd mentality on the street, giving an opinion about as valid as the best paint color for a room, or like to see themselves on television talking about the hot market moving topic du jour.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Today's Turn Date May Influence the Markets / Forecasts / Financial Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is down 5 points as I write. That is not enough in itself to declare that the top has been made, but today happens to be a combined Trading Cycle and Primary Cycle Pivot. Confirmation may come with the decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 2066.04 and/or the 2-hour mid-Cycle support and trendline at 2061.18.