Thursday, November 09, 2023
The “new ChatGPT” just launched / Companies / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
1. All the world’s smartest people are embracing AI—and you better be too.
I was at the Network State Conference, hosted by Balaji Srinivasan.
Here’s award-winning journalist Glenn Greenwald presenting (he’s one of the good guys):
Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SP500 Trend Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SPX Bounce Underway, but Resistance Upcoming / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.
Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market Investing - Aren't We Here To Make Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
All I have heard over the last year is that we are about to head into a recession – an economic construct suggesting a negative market environment. And, this has kept many quite bearish of the stock market, with most looking at the rally from 3500 to 4600SPX as the market being “wrong.” Well, I have some news for you, which was well said by the legendary Jesse Livermore:
“A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.”
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Gold, Silver, Precious Metals Slide Re-starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As the concern with geopolitics peaked, so did gold price. Silver and mining follow. Are you prepared for the likely outcome?
Gold Peaks and Slides
In my yesterday’s analysis, I wrote the following about gold:
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
AI Rules Everything! A.R.E.A.M. / Companies / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
My grand-dad used to tell me, “Look after the pennies, and the pounds will look after themselves.”
Microsoft (MSFT) founder Bill Gates still flew Economy long after he was a multimillionaire.
And to this day, the table in Amazon’s (AMZN) executive conference room is made of old doors with 4x4s attached to them for legs.
Sunday, November 05, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal and Presidential Cycle Analysis, Bitcoin Final Warning! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Your analyst back from scam central (Istanbul), tourists need to factor in a getting scammed tax when visiting. Since my last article the S&P hit a low of 4333 followed by an ABC rally to a swing high of 4533, whilst a consolidation of the advance was expected, still this was more powerful than how I imagined it would play out ahead of targeting sub 4200 by Mid October and thus presents a significant deviation against my original trend forecast of some 11 months go.
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
Bitcoins FINAL Correction? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Why is the bitcoin price falling if we are trending towards the SEC approving bitcoin etf's i.e. black rock?
I smell dark pools of capital at work engineering favourable price action to accumulate into. This could be the FINAL bitcoin dump before we wake up to a bull market to NEW ALL TIME HIGH's .during 2024 How low? maybe fall to 20k.... I will be scaling in as low as it goes, for the X4 to X5 payoff.
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
A Recession is Brewing / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
Gold Stocks Lagging / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind. Their striking performance gap is undermining gold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector. While definitely vexing, this anomaly has only arisen over the past couple weeks. Gold stocks’ precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon, with miners surging fast to catch up with their metal.
Gold has been blasting higher on balance for a month now, confirming a new major upleg is underway. While the sparking catalyst was certainly geopolitical, gold’s upside since has been fueled by the normal sequential buying pattern driving all major uplegs. That’s stage-one gold-futures short-covering buying, then larger stage-two gold-futures long buying, then ultimately vast stage-three investment buying returning.
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
Why AI Will Eat the World / Companies / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
US stocks have been treading water lately… but the big news is in bitcoin (BTC).
It’s on fire, surging to $35,000—a price not seen in a year and a half.
Bitcoin has now doubled this year and is easily the best-performing major investment in the world:
Saturday, November 04, 2023
Rise of US Military Aid, Fall of Israeli Labor Party / Politics / Israel
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Nightmare after 50 Years of Failed Military PoliciesIsraeli occupation and far-right settlers are subverting Israeli democracy. The rise of US military aid has resulted in the fall of the Israeli Labor Party. Meanwhile, neoliberal policies are polarizing the economy, politics and society.
Since the 1970s, the concern of the Israeli peace activists was that if the Messianic far-right Jewish settlers, many of whom came from the US, would be permitted to create a substantial de facto presence, it would be legitimized over time by de jure measures.
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
Gold Holds Firms as World Braces for Financial Turmoil, War / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
As the Federal Reserve puts a hold on interest rates, investors have to ask themselves whether the elevated inflation rate is also on hold.The Fed’s preferred measure of so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, most recently came in at 3.7%. Despite having fallen substantially since last year’s peak, the official inflation rate has yet to approach the Fed’s 2% target.
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Friday, November 03, 2023
FED Loads of Money! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P Measuring Move
Rally from 4333 to 4540 is 207 points, 4333 - 207 points = 4126. Not a forecast rather another piece of the puzzle eyeballing sub 4200, and my long standing objective of 4150 as being probable.
So stock market eyes sub 4200, and eying achieving 4150 with possibility of overshoot to just under 4100 over the next 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore the market is primed to snap back inline with my trend forecast by means of taking a significant tumble over the coming weeks where we can all look for catalysts for but the forecast remains blind to all that has transpired since it was posted 10 months ago!
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Friday, November 03, 2023
US Bond Market Chaos to Increase by March 2024 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of Q1 2024.The U.S. national debt is now $33.5T, and the interest on that debt is $712b so far this year. That interest expense is set to double over the next few years as our debt is rolling over at much higher interest rates. Interest payments equal to 17% of all Federal revenue and should easily jump to 35% of all income very soon. The deficits will be much greater when the recession arrives, as the automatic economic stabilizers kick in, just as revenue also collapses. Entitlements and debt service payments will equal 100% of all revenue by 2040 at the very latest. At that point, there will be no room for any other government spending. Our bond market is fracturing, and it is becoming an existential crisis for our financial system. What else would you expect when the nation’s annual deficit is 45% of our revenue, and that is adding on each year to the national debt, which is an incredible 771% of annual federal income!
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Friday, November 03, 2023
Sad Silver Price Lags Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
With the economic backdrop continuing to deteriorate, silver’s bull case has become increasingly fragile.
Ominous Signs Ahead
While silver has bounced off its recent lows, the white metal continues to underperform gold. And when volatile areas of the precious metals market showcase weakness (silver and mining stocks) it’s often an ominous sign for the entire sector.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Seem's like everyone's woken upto the importance of the US presidential election cycle. However as is the case with the seasonal pattern it is not the holy grail, has a similar 75% hit rate to the all years seasonal pattern where the real value is when one puts both together. In which respect confirms September should end DOWN, October higher whilst November and December could switch places, i.e a weak November would imply a strong December and visa versa.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggested that after a pause in Feb the stock market should trend higher into early May for a weak May before correcting into late June follower by a strong July rally into Mid August before ending flat on the month, then followed by a weak September likely into early October that resolves in a rally into late December.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
You’re Being Lied to About AI Stocks Investing / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
Sam Walton’s first boss told him, “Maybe you’re just not cut out for retail.”
Haha. You know the punchline. Sam went on to build a retailer you might have heard of: Walmart (WMT).
Yep, Walmart started with one determined 44-year-old man.
And thanks to the magic of the stock market—which lets us piggyback on exceptional guys like Sam—investors got rich too.
Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stocks Are In a Rally Mode – Is This Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
S&P 500 went closer to 4,300 level again – will the uptrend resume?The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday as it got back above the 4,200 level following FOMC monetary policy release. Recently the market kept selling-off on geopolitical uncertainty, strong U.S. dollar, among other factors. Last Friday’s low was at 4,103.78 and it was the lowest since May 12. Yesterday’s daily high was at 4,245.64.
In early October stocks were rallying from their local lows along 4,220 level and on October 17 the index reached a local high of 4,394. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about monetary policy, economic growth and geopolitics.
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