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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Politics

Sunday, March 03, 2019

The Looming UK Brexit Mess  / Politics / BrExit

By: Dan_Steinbock

After the misguided referendum three years ago, the Brexit end-game is about to begin. In the UK, it means political division and fiscal erosion. Moreover, global growth prospects will not remain immune to turmoil in the world’s fifth largest economy.

Initially, London’s goal was to wheel and deal the best possible deal with Brussels. That became more difficult after mid-January when the House of Commons rejected PM May’s EU withdrawal agreement. The rejection compounded the odds for a risky and disorderly no-deal Brexit scenario.

The risks for volatility are also fueled by the impending European Parliament election in May 25-26, which is likely to strengthen Euroskeptics, anti-immigration forces, and radical right and left, at the expense of mainstream parties.

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Currencies

Sunday, March 03, 2019

Zimbabwe Introduces A New Currency For Maxi-Devaluation / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Until February 20th, Zimbabwe produced a quasi-currency. It was dubbed a “Zollar.” On the 20th, the quasi-currency became Zimbabwe’s official currency. This new currency is called RTGS dollars and consists of bond notes and RTGS (electronic money).

The RTGS dollars possess legal tender status and will serve as the unit of account for the government’s books. The official exchange rate for Zollar quasi-currency had been set at a one-to-one rate with the U.S. dollar. But now, the RTGS dollar will trade at a managed floating exchange rate. The rate today is 2.50 per U.S. dollar, not par, as it used to be. So, Zimbabwe’s official exchange rate has experienced a maxi-devaluation of 60%.

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Currencies

Sunday, March 03, 2019

Bitcoins And Bolivars: Two Hot Potatoes / Currencies / BlockChain

By: Steve_H_Hanke

It was just a little more than a decade ago when “Satoshi Nakamoto” ushered in what has become the era of private cryptocurrencies. Nakamoto’s vision was clearly laid out in a whitepaper: “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Cash System.”

Nakamoto’s bitcoin money machine—or as Larry White refers to it: a private “algorithmic central bank”—was going to wipe out the inflation risk and the accompanying loss of purchasing power that plague fiat monies issued by government-controlled central banks. Alas, bitcoin’s source code that predetermines its supply is set on a fixed-quantity path that is unresponsive to changes in demand. In consequence, bitcoin inhabits a demand-supply space in which supply is almost perfectly inelastic. So, to reach a demand-supply equilibrium, all the adjustment falls on the back of bitcoin’s price (read: purchasing power). As a result, bitcoin’s price is inherently volatile and unstable. Indeed, small changes in demand in the face of an inelastic supply create a price volatility storm. Furthermore, unless more demand can be attracted to bitcoin, there is no reason why its price should trend upwards, as many have been led to believe. If speculation wanes, bitcoin’s price could trend downwards. Indeed, bitcoin’s design guarantees volatility, which inhibits its widespread use. In short, it is very risky to hold bitcoins or accept them for deferred payments.

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Commodities

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Is the Worst Behind for Crude Oil Bears? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil made yesterday another hesitant move higher. Also yesterday, we mentioned here the saying regarding gravity. Sometimes, it takes patience for the underlying forces to win out. Or, doesn't the oil market rather remind you more of a coiled spring actually? Accordingly, what is the position favored most by the odds right now?

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Commodities

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been climbing higher on balance, enjoying a solid upleg that is gathering steam.  That’s fueling improving sentiment, driving more interest in this small contrarian sector.  This gold-stock upleg is likely to grow in coming months, partially because of very-favorable spring seasonals.  The gold stocks’ second-strongest seasonal rally of the year typically unfolds between mid-March to early June.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time in the calendar year.

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Global Clothing Trends: What’s Hot This 2019 / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Dylan_Moran

Wondering what's the clothing trend this 2019 from around the globe?

ELLE UK has listed down the seven fashion trends that they predict to be big in 2019. Other big labels and fashion houses also shared their predictions for the biggest international trends this year.

So, what will be the choice of clothing of a trendy individual this 2019?
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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Perception of Powell Put in Place – QE4 Looms / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: EWI

By Murray Gunn

For better or worse, the markets perceive that Fed chairman Powell has showed his hand.

The recent Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January meeting revealed almost unanimous agreement to announce a plan soon for ending the Fed's policy of balance sheet reduction. This is the first step in an inevitable march towards the fourth round of quantitative easing (QE4).

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Commodities

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Natural Gas Bottom Rotation Sets Up New Opportunities / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our recent UGAZ trade returned over 30% in profits in just a few days for our members.  We believe this continued price rotation below $3 will also setup new trading opportunities for skilled traders.  Traders just need to be patient and understand when the opportunity exists in NG for an upside price swing.

The $2.50~2.60 price level has continued to drive historical support in price for over two years now.  Until that level is substantially broken, we believe the opportunities for upside price rotation from near these levels is substantial.  The immediate upside targets for NG are $2.90 and $3.15.  These targets are enough for skilled traders to capture 25~30% returns in the 3x ETFs which is what we did this week in UGAZ. Larger upside opportunities exist with seasonal price pattern, but we are likely 7+ months away from another seasonal rally in NG at this point.

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Cheap UK Theme Park Tickets 2019 Grown Ups & Mates Go FREE 2019 Legoland, Alton Towers With Kelloggs / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: HGR

Now's that time to start planning your family day drips to Britains many theme parks, to keep their kids entertained during holidays. We'll here is some great news for you all as many breakfast serial and chocolate snack bar producers such as Kellogg's have started running promotions that allow entry into the UK's top theme parks for FREE for the whole of 2019! So plenty of time to use the vouchers to gain entry into Merlin's 14 UK theme parks that include Alton Towers, Legoland, Chessington, the Dungeon, Sea Life, Shreks Adventure and Madame Tussaud's etc...

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Politics

Friday, March 01, 2019

View From The Brextanic / Politics / BrExit

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Longtime Automatic Earth friend Alexander Aston talks about finding himself at Oxford at a point in time when the British themselves appear overcome by a combo of utter confusion and deadly lethargy, and one can only imagine what it must be like for ‘foreigners’ residing in Albion, who face large potential changes to their lives and know there’s not a thing they can do about it, not even vote.

I like the observation that the entire British political system, the place where decisions are made, is the size of a small village. That’s a visual we can all relate to. It’s a physical limit as well as a mental one. I’m all for sovereignty and self-determination, but how’s that going to work if you can’t even see the boundaries of your own territory?

Guys, it’s 4 weeks to D-Day today. How about we call off the landing, get a few pints instead, and talk? First round’s on me.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 01, 2019

US Consumer Debt Is Actually in Better Shape Than Ever / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jared_Dillian

I saw a headline last week:

“More Americans Are Behind On Their Car Loans Than Ever Before”

Sounds ominous. It’s even worse when you dig into it.

Seven million car loans were more than 90 days past due in the fourth quarter of last year. That’s more than during the Great Recession, when unemployment was twice as high.

A lot of the perma-bears seized on this, saying how the economy sucks because everyone is defaulting on their car loans.

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Politics

Friday, March 01, 2019

US House of Representatives Hits A New Low / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Perhaps against better judgment, I just can’t keep silent about the Michael Cohen’s in da House show performed on February 27. I was watching it and increasingly fearing for the future of America. We had all been able to read his prepared statement before he opened the party with it, and therefore we all knew there was nothing there. So why did this thing take place, and why were all the cameras and reporters there? Do we live in split realities these days?

Both before and after the gruelling -for the viewer- session, words like ‘explosive’ and bombshell’ were all over, so I thought I’d watch, since I might have missed something, but no, there was nothing, there wasn’t even a there there. Apparently, US House members are by now immune to being revealed as nutcases frantically phishing for evidence of accusations they formerly made but could never prove.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 01, 2019

Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession. And if that were not bad enough we have the train wreck that is BrExit, not the decision to LEAVE the European Union but rather the failure of the UK government / Parliament to implement BrExit in a competent manner, far from it, Parliament has been paralysed with the UK government look set to beg the EU for an extension to Article 50. Nevertheless the major stock indices such as the Dow and the FTSE have SOARED! Confounding not just the usual perma doom merchants out there but much of the mainstream press because most of that which the press peddles has been BAD NEWS!

(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

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Commodities

Friday, March 01, 2019

GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold

As I have said before, my job on FATrader.com is to further intellectual honesty about financial markets but cutting through much of the dross being presented by most analysts and media outlets.

So, as I am known to do, I will peruse the various posting through the interest for something interesting and then write about it. And, while I cannot say what GATA writes is “interesting,” I can say it is always provides fodder for presenting why so many do not understand the gold market.

In its latest missive, GATA takes umbrage with Mark Hulbert’s latest article on gold To that end, they write:

“Hulbert notes that gold often fails to correlate with inflation, though it is widely supposed to. Indeed, gold's underperformance of inflation in recent decades has been a major disparagement of the monetary metal.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 01, 2019

Market Forecasting You Just Cant Beat! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen walks you through the financial markets every morning before the opening bell so you know how to trade it and manage your positions.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Next Recession: Turning Zero Percent Interest Rates Into A 21% Yield / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

If there is a new recession in the next few years, then it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will take extreme measures in response, with the primary response being to swiftly knock short term interest rates back down to zero percent.

For many investors - the combination of recession, heavy-handed Fed interventions, and the return of zero percent interest rate policies (ZIRP) is likely to produce devastating results for their portfolios, and possibly their standard of living in retirement.

At the same time - some quite attractive profit opportunities will also exist, once we learn how to see them. This analysis explores one reasonably simple and practical alternative for turning zero percent interest rates into a 21% annual return.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 28, 2019

More Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty as Investors Await Economic Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were mixed again on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index continues to trade at the 2,800 resistance level. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday. It got closer to the previous local highs along the 2,800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% yesterday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the previous medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 2,765-2,780, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous Friday's daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.

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Politics

Thursday, February 28, 2019

The US Constitution Myth / Politics / US Politics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

One reason for the failure of the modern conservative and libertarian movements to scale back, in even a miniscule way, the now gargantuan US welfare/warfare state has been the misinterpretation of the US Constitution. Many conservatives have a slavish devotion to the document, placing it on a par with the Ten Commandments and New Testament.

A typical misunderstanding of the Constitution’s history and content appeared in this recent op-ed:

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Companies

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Nokia and Ericsson Are Making a Huge Comeback—Buy Them Before Most Investors Realize This / Companies / Mobile Technology

By: Stephen_McBride

In 2017, American officials discovered that ZTE was selling phones to US enemies like North Korea.

The US government told ZTE to stop. It refused. So lawmakers banned ZTE from doing any business in America.

ZTE had been manufacturing roughly 25% of its phone parts in the US. So the ban crippled its business overnight.

ZTE’s shares plunged 55% in two weeks, and the stock has never recovered:
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Companies

Thursday, February 28, 2019

How to Earn 25%+ Dividends with Blue Chip Stocks / Companies / Dividends

By: Robert_Foss

They are known as the Coca-Cola millionaires.

In the early 1920s, a Florida banker named Pat Munroe convinced his clients to buy shares of Coca-Cola (KO).

He saw that even in tough times, people would still have a few nickels to buy Coca-Cola.

Those who followed Munroe’s urgings made fortunes. His advice minted 67 Coca-Cola millionaires.

While investors reaped giant profits as the stock price climbed higher, the dividends they earned are even more impressive.

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