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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Mauldin: My 2019 Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

I recently did a “2019 Investment Outlook” webinar with my business partner Steve Blumenthal.

We looked at three topics: recession probability, credit conditions, and stock valuations. I can tell, we went deep on the webinar. You can read a transcript or view a recording here.

Here I’ll give you an abbreviated version of that webinar.

Economists Can’t Recognize Recessions in Real Time

Steve started the webinar by noting we are late in an economic cycle. He showed the chart below to illustrate how all cycles have expansion periods that end with recession.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

The Fed Caused the Stock Market Sell-Off—but Not with Rate Hikes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: John_Mauldin

I recently argued Jerome Powell did the right thing by raising rates a mere 25 basis points.

He did what Janet Yellen should have done years ago. And for the first time since Volcker, a Fed chair declared the Fed’s independence from the market and politicians.

Besides the Fed’s dual mandate, Greenspan, Bernanke, and, in particular, Yellen had a third unofficial mandate. It was to make sure that asset prices keep rising.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 17, 2019

No for Brexit Deal, Yes for May. And What for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

71 days. That’s all that separates us from the Brexit deadline. And the UK has still no clear path forward exiting the EU. Does gold have one?

Today's analysis features possible scenarios for the UK and for gold along with their likelihood. In the current political situation, it's a must-read.

Parliament Rejects May’s Brexit Deal

On Tuesday, the UK Parliament voted on Theresa May’s Brexit deal for leaving the EU. As expected, the MPs rejected her proposition. What was really surprising was the scale of defeat. The parliament voted 432-202 against May’s divorce deal, marking the worst defeat in modern British history.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Macro Could Weaken After US Government Shutdown. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P is close the reaching its 50% retracement, which is the standard target before a pullback/retest. After the pullback/retest, what happens next depends on the macro economy. If the macro economy deteriorates, then stocks will keep going down. If the macro economy weakens, then stocks will keep going up. But even if the bull market has more room left, it doesn’t have a lot of room. A 1999-scenario (1 last year of the bull market) is a best case scenario.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

US Stock Market Indexes Reaches Fibonacci Target Zone – Where to Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Near December 21, 2018, our research team began a series of posts indicating the US Major Indexes should be set up for the “Ultimate Bottom” low that we suggested would take place after the US Elections (November 2018) and which would launch an upside price rally.  Today, we are writing to announce that the first leg of this upside move appears to be nearly completed.

It is critical to mention here that as of only a day go the short-term market trend from a technical standpoint has turned up. So, getting long before this point would be trying to catch a bottom which is tough and risky to do. The good news is that we are expecting a second leg higher after we get some rotation to the downside.

Using our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system, we can see that the current prices of the ES and NQ are very near to the immediate Fibonacci Price Target Zone.  You will see from the following charts that both the ES and NQ are already within this zone and/or very near to what we believe will be immediate resistance.  This means we should expect a bit of price rotation near these levels before another upside leg takes place driving prices higher.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Stock Market Rig is Ending… Next Leg Down is About to Begin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

This week is options expiration week… Wall Street’s favorite time to ramp the markets in order to insure the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless.

THIS, nothing else, is why the markets rallied this week. Tweets from the President or some statement by a Fed official were simply the excuse Wall Street used to engage in this game.

And that game is now ending. Stocks face TREMENDOUS overhead resistance here.

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Companies

Thursday, January 17, 2019

How 2018 Was For The UK Casino Industry / Companies / Gambling

By: Submissions

...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

It’s Not Polite, but I’m Pretty Pissed at the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

This essay is going to insult a bunch of smart, maybe even brilliant, people. It is not polite nor is it politically correct. I will try to be better. But right now, I am pretty pissed.

Here’s the thing.

No serious scientist would run a two-variable experiment. By that I mean, you run an experiment with one variable to see what happens.

If you have two variables and something happens—either good or bad—you don’t know which variable caused it.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Gold Holds Steady Over £1,000 – Increased Likelihood Of A Disorderly Brexit / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: GoldCore

– Gold supported near $1,300/oz ahead of important British Brexit no-confidence vote
– Gold is consolidating in range between $1,280 and $1,300/oz (over £1,000/oz and €1,100/oz) – A break of resistance at $1,300 will likely see gold rise rapidly in all currencies
– Physical demand for gold coins and bars has picked up in the UK and Ireland, aided by Brexit uncertainty

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

One-year Savings Bond Rates Soar, While Five-year Deals Rise Modestly / Personal_Finance / Saving Bonds

By: MoneyFacts

Starting a new year can be a great time to review the top savings rates, and reassuringly, average rates on one-year fixed bonds have hit a four-year high, according to the latest research by Moneyfacts.co.uk. However, this encouraging start to 2019 has not been seen in the five-year fixed bond market, with rates (although rising) not rising at the same pace.

Statistics released today show the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 2.1% during December, meaning 94 fixed rate bonds and 6 fixed rate ISAs (based on a £10,000 deposit) can now match or beat inflation*. Within that, 82 fixed bonds and 4 fixed ISAs beat 2.1%, still a small share of the standard savings market.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Gold Price – US$700 Or US$7000? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Does either of the above preclude the other?  In other words, if we expect gold to reach $7000.00 per ounce, and we are correct, does that mean that we can’t reasonably expect gold to go as low as $700.00 per ounce? Conversely, if we are predicting or expecting gold to decline from its current level and even breach $1000.00 per ounce on the downside, can $7000.00 per ounce, or anything even remotely close to that number, be a reasonable possibility? 

I do not think either one precludes the other.  In fact, I think it is entirely possible that we can see bothfigures.  And not necessarily spread over an inordinately long period of time, either.

Here is a possible scenario that would allow that to happen.

As the U.S dollar strengthens, the U.S. dollar price of gold declines.  This is clearly evident in the price action of gold since its high point of approximately $1900.00 per ounce in 2011. There is no way to know for certain how long relative dollar strength will last. And it is reasonable that if ongoing dollar strength takes gold below $1000, it might come to rest somewhere between $860 – 890.00 per ounce.  In January 1980, gold peaked at $850.00.  Revisiting that number is plausible, and well within the realm of realistic speculation.  And, yes, there are technical indicators that point to a gold price of as low as $700.00 per ounce.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Rare earths deja vu: Chinese crackdown = higher prices / Commodities / Rare Earths

By: Richard_Mills

In a scene awfully familiar to those who follow the rare earths market, China is once again threatening to hatchet production of the valuable minerals used in high-tech, renewable energy and military applications.

Last week it was reported that the Chinese government published new guidelines designed to eliminate illegal mining and encourage more high-end processing. Those sterile words are code for “less polluting”.

Shutting down illegal rare earth mines is nothing new to the Chinese, who have found that the process of extracting rare earth oxides from ore and refining them into useable products has come at a high price to the environment.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Commodities Are the Right Story for 2019 / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Richard_Mills

The markets are up and down like a bride's nightgown, as my dad used to say, bitcoin is in the toilet, and tech stocks, once as steady as the banks, are as unreliable as an old Apple computer. If you’re reluctant to dip your toe back into the stock market, you’re not alone.

‘The Hunt for Red October’ was a great movie but nobody thought ‘Red October’ would actually happen. In October it did. Anyone that was invested saw their equities turn as red as a Russian submarine commander. The S&P 500 churned. When the calendar mercifully turned to November, the benchmark US stock index had fallen 8.5%, the worst month since February 2009 and the ugliest October since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The Dow and the Nasdaq were equally pummeled.

And then it kept going. December was the worst month since the Great Depression. The financial talking heads couldn’t decide what was going on. The trade war with China, speculation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December (it did) and slowing global growth, were all trotted out as culprits. Algorithmic trading and end-of-the-year tax selling also played a role, as did good old profit-taking by retail investors, who figured it was as good a time as any to exit a nine-year bull market.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Look Inside Letoonia Club Hotel Resort Bungalow Rooms - Turkey Holidays 2019 / Personal_Finance / Holidays

By: Anika_Walayat

Planning a trip to the Dalaman / Fethiye area of Turkey during 2019? Well here's what a look inside the Bungalow rooms at the popular Letoonia Club Hotel Resort, situated about 40 miles south of Dalaman and across the bay from the city of Fethiye. As we check out what several rooms are like in terms of space, facities and of course beds.

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Currencies

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Bitcoin Price Wavers / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

If Bitcoin bulls got excited about the recent move up, Thursday’s action extinguished some of this excitement. But it doesn’t come as a surprise to our readers. This one day of strong depreciation can be seen as an indication of things to come. But are these things bearish?

Bitcoin remains on the fringe of the financial system. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has recently issued a warning on Bitcoin. In an article on the Forbes website, we read:

In another blow to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, BIS warned investors and traders that they could lose money on privately minted cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

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Companies

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

History Shows That “Disruptor Stocks” Will Make You the Most Money in a Bear Market / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

 “Sell everything, I can’t take anymore!”

My stockbroker friend got a phone call from a hysterical client on Christmas Eve.

She was panicking over all the money she had lost in the market—and demanded to sell her whole stock portfolio.

As you know, December was horrendous for US markets. The S&P fell 10%. It was its worst December since 1931 during the Great Depression. In fact, it was the S&P’s worst month overall since February 2009.
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Politics

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

US Border Barrier Solution / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

Rational discourse has been the overriding casualty of the border war. The break down in language is more than semantics. It has elevated into a divergence of culture that no longer shares a common value system or a cherished dream. The camps of discontent reside in separate and distinct jurisdictions. Government has failed at every level. People have become so polarized that trust in a community of citizens has been discarded for the purity of totalitarian globalism. The continued controversy over a border barrier differentiates more than a line between two countries.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

What Will the Stock Market Do Around Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has done well throughout the first half of January 2019. With earnings season just ahead and the stock market under its 200 day moving average, the high probability of a pullback/retest remains.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Fiat paper money: Once gold and silver derivatives
Today, instruments of debt issued by central banks

After the 2008 financial crisis, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke invoked Milton Friedman’s theory that a helicopter drop of money could prevent a collapsing credit bubble from becoming a Great Depression.

When credit bubbles burst, defaulting debt and disappearing demand cause the velocity of money to plunge; and, in 2008, Bernanke resorted to Friedman’s untested theory hoping to prevent the US economy from collapsing as it did in the 1930s.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Are Global Stock Markets About To Rally 10 Percent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technical Traders Ltd. is issuing new analysis which indicates the US and global markets may be poised for a dramatic upside price swing over the next couple.  Recent events have driven asset class values to new valuations that may change the dynamics of markets for a few months.  Prior to August/September 2018, many traders were fearful of the expectations of the US Federal Reserve, Global Trade Issues and the US Elections. Combine this with the end of the year liquidity issues and the threat of a US government shutdown over the wall funding and we have almost a perfect storm brewing for uncertainty and fear.

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