Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
How to Profit from Europe's Secret Economic "Plan B" / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: As the European Union debates yet a third bailout for Greece, revelations about secret plans by some Eurozone members tell an even more intriguing story.
During the depths of the European sovereign crisis, when Greece was inches from exiting the zone, others chose to not sit idly by.
Instead, two member nations were surreptitiously preparing for a possible Eurozone breakup.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
U.S. Economy Post-‘Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_Tanashian
Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates. Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn?
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Does Europe Have Demand Deficiency Syndrome? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Frank_Shostak
In his Financial Times article “The curse of weak global demand,” Martin Wolf writes that today’s most important economic illness is chronic demand deficiency syndrome. Wolf argues that despite massive monetary pumping by the central banks of the US and the EMU, and the policy of lowering interest rates to around zero, both the US and the EMU, economies have continued to struggle.
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Why the US Economy Is Temporarily Outperforming, In Two Charts / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Today’s US employment report was the best in years. 300,000+ new jobs, rising wages, fewer people dropping out of the workforce, the whole package. Very hopeful. And also curious, since the rest of the world seems to be moving in the other direction. Consider:
Friday, December 05, 2014
Central Banks Battling Deflation at Any Cost / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Jared Dillian writes: When I was in junior high, my friend Scott had this Billy Crystal tape that we passed back and forth to each other. I still like Billy Crystal, but let’s just say he was truly hilarious when I was 13 back in 1987.
He had this routine about old codgers who used to tell you how hard life was in the old days.
“We had no air…” he’d say, in an old man voice. “No food. We ate wool coats and we were happy.”
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Saturday, November 29, 2014
US Unemployment At Lowest Rate Since 2009 / Economics / Unemployment
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
After painstaking growth, complaints of padded figures, and fears of underemployment among those lucky enough to have jobs, America finally sees its national unemployment rates in the 5.2-5.5% range. At this level, the Federal Reserve considers the market to represent full employment, with very nearly all of those actively desiring employment working or reasonably able to find work. An added bonus for government forecasters is that this rate of improvement is in keeping with their predictions, but comes a full quarter early.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 27, 2014
The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
We should be glad the price of oil has fallen the way it has (losing another 6% today as I write this). Not because it makes the gas in our cars a bit cheaper, that’s nothing compared to the other service the price slump provides. That is, it allows us to see how the economy is really doing, without the multilayered veil of propaganda, spin, fixed data and bailouts and handouts for the banking system.
It shows us the huge extent to which consumer spending is falling, how much poorer people have become as stock markets set records. It also shows us how desperate producing nations have become, who have seen a third of their often principal source of revenue fall away in a few months’ time. Nigeria was first in line to devalue its currency, others will follow suit.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Clash of Generations - Why Millennials Still Live at Home; Not Jobs, Student Debt, or Housing / Economics / Demographics
By: Mike_Shedlock
A New York Fed research paper wonders What's Keeping Millennials at Home? Is it Debt, Jobs, or Housing?
The paper says "it's a mystery" why the housing recovery did not have a bigger impact on millennials living at home.
The research paper, written by Zachary Bleemer, Meta Brown, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw notes correlations to debt, jobs and housing.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Where Is China Economy On The Map Exactly? / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A lot of people these days vent their opinions on what’s happening with the Chinese economy, and the opinions are so all over the place they could hardly be more different. Which is interesting, to say the least. Apparently it’s still very hard to understand what does happen ‘over there’.
And I don’t at all mean to suggest that I would know better than Morgan Stanley’s former Asia go-to-man Stephen Roach, or hedge funder Hugh Hendry, or Bob Davis, who just spent 4 years in the country for the Wall Street Journal, or Gwynn Guilford at Quartz, or local Reuters correspondents. It’s just that between them, they disagree so vastly you’d think they’re playing a game with your mind.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Most of The World Economies Panic - Is The US Next? / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
It's been quite a month.
In late October Japan, despite a year of fairly aggressive quantitative easing, dropped back into recession and concluded that even easier money was the cure for its ills. It announced a debt monetization plan of almost science-fictional proportions in which the amount of new yen to be created, as a percentage of GDP, will be equivalent to $3 trillion a year in the US. See Reactions to BoJ's Kuroda's Stunning, Doubled-Down QE 'Experiment'
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Saturday, November 22, 2014
Malaysia's Subsidy and Budget Deficit Conundrum / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
In reality, running a Government is similar to running a company in many respects. Both have revenues and spending to adhere to. When a Government runs a deficit then it needs to sell Treasury bills, notes and bonds to raise funds. Similarly when a company is short of cash, it can raise funds by selling securities. In a way it can be said that the total debt incurred by the Government is the total outstanding government securities. Thus the total or national debt at any point of time is the sum of all prior deficits. Hence, when a Government runs a deficit, the national debt will be increased by the amount of the deficit.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Euro-Zone Tooth Fairy Economics, Spain Needs to leave the Euro / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Michael Pettis has a very interesting article on the Spanish news site ABC regarding a possible default of Spain and the eventual breakup of the eurozone.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
European Economies in Perpetual State of Shock, What's Scarier Than Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
As early as 2011, our analysis warned that Europe's deflation was coming -- here's why
For the economies of Europe, the past few months have felt like one long ice-bucket challenge that never ends: A perpetual state of shock induced by the bone-chilling fact that deflation
"...has become a reality in many European countries." (Oct. 24, New York Times)
At last count, eight European nations are now in outright deflation, including:
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Wednesday, November 19, 2014
The Abenomics Japan Economic Death Spiral / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan's economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few economists can hear the alarm. (A longer version of this article can be found in Euro Pacific Capital's Global Investor Newsletter.)
Data out this week shows the Japanese economy returning to recession by contracting for the second straight quarter (and three out of the last four quarters). The conclusion reached by the Keynesian apologists is that the benefits of inflation caused by the monetary stimulus have been counteracted, temporarily, by the negative effects of inflation caused by taxes. This tortured logic should be a clear indication that the policies were flawed from the start.
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Wednesday, November 19, 2014
The U.S. Economy’s Ebb and Flow / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Paul Krugman recently wrote an op-ed in The New York Times about the exit of Bill Gross from Pimco and why that happened because he didn’t understand that we’re in a deflationary or depression-like economy. He kept betting on interest rates rising on a lag from money printing or quantitative easing (QE) but that never happened and his massive bond fund suffered.
I don’t agree with Paul Krugman about too many things, but I do agree with one of his major points in that article.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Japan Is Dying And We Still Don’t Get It?! / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
What is it with us? Don’t we WANT to understand? Japan announced on Monday that its economy is in hopeless trouble and back in recession (as if it was ever out). And what do we see? ‘Experts’ and reporters clamoring for more stimulus. But if Japan has shown us anything over the past years, and you’re free to pick any number between 2 and 20 years, it’s that the QE-based kind of stimulus doesn’t work. Not for the real economy, that is.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Cameron Says Second Global Economic Crash is Loomin, Japan in Recession / Economics / Recession 2015
By: GoldCore
David Cameron warned last night that the global economy risked another crash and said in an article that 'red warning lights' were 'flashing on the dashboard of the global economy' and the eurozone was 'teetering on the brink' of another recession.
The warning came at the same time that the world’s largest economy, Japan, fell into another recession. Japan shrank by an annualised 1.6% in the third quarter. This followed a huge 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter caused by a rise in the national sales tax and ran counter to economists forecasts for a 2.1 percent rebound.
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Monday, November 17, 2014
Japan's Last Stand - Inflate or Die / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Michael_Pento
There is a popular American military term called a "last stand", which is meant to describe a situation where a combat force attempts to hold a defensive position in the face of overwhelming odds. The defensive force usually sustains very heavy casualties or is completely destroyed, as happened at Custer's Last Stand. General Custer, misreading his enemy's size and ability, fought his final and fatal battle of Little Bighorn; leading to complete annihilation of both himself and his troops.
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Friday, November 14, 2014
Hyperinflation in the U.S.? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“WAR is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives.”
-General Smedley Butler, USMC
“Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws.”
-Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812), founder of the House of Rothschild
Friday, November 14, 2014
Debt, Propaganda And Now Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Looks I have to return to the deflation topic. I’m a bit hesitant about it, because the discussion always gets distorted by varying definitions and a whole bunch of semi-religious issues. The Automatic Earth has for many years said that an immense bout of deflation is inevitable because of global debt levels, and it’s all only gotten a lot worse since we first said that. Our governments and central banks have ‘fought’ deflation with more debt, and that was always the stupidest idea in human history. Or at least, most of us were stupid for believing it would work, or was even intended to.